Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: kingm56 on June 18, 2024, 02:53:30 PM3259 / 14 = 232 * 17 = 3,957.

If he achieved this output, it would be on par with Sam Howells' 3,946 passing yards; It may be a positive, but not a significant one IMO. 

Matt,

I am curious; the 17-game projected yardage for DJ at 3957 yards puts him closer to Matt Stafford's 3,965 yards than Sam Howell's 3,946 yards.  So why did you pick Howell instead of Stafford for your comparison?

Quote from: Philosophers on June 18, 2024, 03:46:38 PMI agree with you but I also like yards as well because it shows you are moving the ball which should produce more chances to score.

Joe,

I completely agree; I actually prefer passing yards, completions, TDs, and Int.  However, when discussing what concerns me the most, it's lack of TD production. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 18, 2024, 03:51:42 PMMatt,

I am curious; the 17-game projected yardage for DJ at 3957 yards puts him closer to Matt Stafford's 3,965 yards than Sam Howell's 3,946 yards.  So why did you pick Howell instead of Stafford for your comparison?

Stafford only played 15 games; thus, his 17 game average is actually 4,493 yard. Howell actually played 17 games. 

Quote from: sxdxca38 on June 18, 2024, 04:54:17 AMActually they have DJ projected to only play in 14 games.

However if you project that out over a 17 game season, he would then throw for over 4,000 yards.

Which would be positive.

However the TDs are way too low.

Those numbers work out to an 83.7 rating. That's just not good enough to be paying a 7th year QB $40mm/yr. You can get that type of a performance for about 20 cents on the dollar. Case in point, Taylor had an 89.1 rating with us last year and we paid him $5.5mm for his services (and didn't bring him back).

Further, missing three games this year wouldn't really mitigate things for Jones.  The pro-rating game wouldn't work with a guy who would have, at that point, missed meaningful time in five of his six seasons as a pro. Not only do the Giants' brass need to see performance from Jones this year, but they need to see dependability.

Obviously these numbers are all pure conjecture and we're just speaking hypothetically. For all I know, maybe he'll go out there and throw for 4,800 yards and 36 TDs with 10 picks this year. All I was saying is that if those ESPN numbers were to actually prove to be accurate, he is as good as gone. I don't think that's even up for debate. Hopefully he does a good bit better than that this year.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 18, 2024, 05:01:53 PMThose numbers work out to an 83.7 rating. That's just not good enough to be paying a 7th year QB $40mm/yr. You can get that type of a performance for about 20 cents on the dollar. Case in point, Taylor had an 89.1 rating with us last year and we paid him $5.5mm for his services (and didn't bring him back).

Further, missing three games this year wouldn't really mitigate things for Jones.  The pro-rating game wouldn't work with a guy who would have, at that point, missed meaningful time in five of his six seasons as a pro. Not only do the Giants' brass need to see performance from Jones this year, but they need to see dependability.

Obviously these numbers are all pure conjecture and we're just speaking hypothetically. For all I know, maybe he'll go out there and throw for 4,800 yards and 36 TDs with 10 picks this year. All I was saying is that if those ESPN numbers were to actually prove to be accurate, he is as good as gone. I don't think that's even up for debate. Hopefully he does a good bit better than that this year.

Well stated, Jeff. Like you, I don't see any positives from said projections. In fact, even if you increased the numbers by 15% (not insignificant), I don't believe it's enough to save his job.

As Larry indicated, this all seems like a bunch of crap. The author appears to be using guess work with simple math, as opposed to exquisite predictive analytics.

Quote from: kingm56 on June 18, 2024, 02:53:30 PM3259 / 14 = 232 * 17 = 3,957.

If he achieved this output, it would be on par with Sam Howells' 3,946 passing yards; It may be a positive, but not a significant one IMO. 

As you eluded to, I'm not completely concerned with the passing yards...I am far more concerned with DJs aggregate TDs. He, and the Giants, simply need to produce more points!

Consider his last four years, DJs 17 game TD average (including rushing TDs) has been abysmal:

14
15
23
8

Even his best year, yielded him 12 fewer TDs than Hurts and 16 fewer than Dak  last year.  It frustrating to understand how far off the pace we are from our divisional rivals. In short, DJ needs to produce more TDs for the Giants to be remotely competitive. 

Hi,

Yes, hypothetically over a 17-game season he does throw for 3,957 yards, but we also must figure in his rushing totals which would give him another 590 yards.

If we combine the two numbers, we get 4,547 total yards, which would put him in the top ten, or possibly as high as top five or top three in total yards for QB's, which would then be solidifying him as a top ten QB at least by yardage production.

They have his completion percentage at 64.4%, which is about 2-3% points lower than what he has produced the last two seasons.

All in all, its the touchdowns that are just way too low, even though they give him another three rushing TD's, that still only equates to seventeen, so I'd like to see these numbers higher, something like 20-25 passing TD's as a floor, not including the rushing ones.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 18, 2024, 05:01:53 PMThose numbers work out to an 83.7 rating. That's just not good enough to be paying a 7th year QB $40mm/yr. You can get that type of a performance for about 20 cents on the dollar. Case in point, Taylor had an 89.1 rating with us last year and we paid him $5.5mm for his services (and didn't bring him back).

Further, missing three games this year wouldn't really mitigate things for Jones.  The pro-rating game wouldn't work with a guy who would have, at that point, missed meaningful time in five of his six seasons as a pro. Not only do the Giants' brass need to see performance from Jones this year, but they need to see dependability.

Obviously these numbers are all pure conjecture and we're just speaking hypothetically. For all I know, maybe he'll go out there and throw for 4,800 yards and 36 TDs with 10 picks this year. All I was saying is that if those ESPN numbers were to actually prove to be accurate, he is as good as gone. I don't think that's even up for debate. Hopefully he does a good bit better than that this year.

Hi Dave,

I don't think you will see 4,800 yards and 36 TD's but I do think the total yardage numbers from those projections seems reasonable.

If we factor in his passing yardage and rushing yardage projections, we get these numbers.

3957 passing yards
590  rushing yards
4457 total yards

With those numbers, you are then looking at a top ten if not possibly a top five QB in total yardage numbers, which is pretty darn good.

They have him projected to throw and run for seventeen TD's which is way too low, but if he is able to throw 20-25 TD's next year, without including his rushing TD's, combined with a 64.4% projected completion percentage, then they will be very happy to bring him back and those are definitely franchise QB numbers in my opinion.

So, if you have his projected numbers look something like this

4457 total yards - 20-25 TD's - 10 Int - 64.4% - 93.7 Rating

He is definitely coming back.

Also, we need to factor in the teams win loss record.

If the team is 11-6 and makes the playoffs, and he is a big part of it, then they will gladly bring him back.

We need to remember that DJ lost some of his passing TDs in 2022 because more than a few times the Giants were on the 1-yard line, and they either did a QB sneak to get in or handed the ball off to the RB for the go-ahead TD, so please keep that in mind when we look at total numbers.

I think it will take 5-6 games for this Oline to jell (if it ever does).  Its actually a disadvantage to start the season for us at QB

Jones might not survive that stretch.  The Giants need to keep 3 QBs on the roster

Quote from: BluesCruz on June 19, 2024, 07:50:59 AMI think it will take 5-6 games for this Oline to jell (if it ever does).  Its actually a disadvantage to start the season for us at QB

Jones might not survive that stretch.  The Giants need to keep 3 QBs on the roster

It certainly was last season.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on June 19, 2024, 03:41:13 AMHi Dave,

I don't think you will see 4,800 yards and 36 TD's but I do think the total yardage numbers from those projections seems reasonable.

If we factor in his passing yardage and rushing yardage projections, we get these numbers.

3957 passing yards
590  rushing yards
4457 total yards

With those numbers, you are then looking at a top ten if not possibly a top five QB in total yardage numbers, which is pretty darn good.

They have him projected to throw and run for seventeen TD's which is way too low, but if he is able to throw 20-25 TD's next year, without including his rushing TD's, combined with a 64.4% projected completion percentage, then they will be very happy to bring him back and those are definitely franchise QB numbers in my opinion.

So, if you have his projected numbers look something like this

4457 total yards - 20-25 TD's - 10 Int - 64.4% - 93.7 Rating

He is definitely coming back.

Also, we need to factor in the teams win loss record.

If the team is 11-6 and makes the playoffs, and he is a big part of it, then they will gladly bring him back.

We need to remember that DJ lost some of his passing TDs in 2022 because more than a few times the Giants were on the 1-yard line, and they either did a QB sneak to get in or handed the ball off to the RB for the go-ahead TD, so please keep that in mind when we look at total numbers.

SXD,

I can get on board with the idea that if he throws for about 4k yards, at least 25 TDs, about 10 picks, a rating in the mid 90s, AND the team makes the playoffs, then he has a pretty good shot of being brought back on this contract.

Those are A LOT of ifs though. First off, those are make believe numbers. Starting with the team itself. The Giants won 6 games last year, and their over/under is 6.5 this year. To win something like 10 or 11 is an extremely optimistic projection.

Secondly, that projection on Jones is incredibly optimistic. He has never come close to 4,000 passing yards, and last year he was absolutely awful, AND he just lost his best offensive player he had last year.

Do I think he is actually as bad as he was last year? No, I do not. But 4,000/25/10 is not something we have seen him do to this point and it's a long, long way from what he showed on the field last year. And on top of that, he's coming off an ACL.

Time will tell. It's great to be optimistic. Nothing would make me happier this fall than if Jones were suddenly, out of the blue, a very good QB despite never having been that in five years in the NFL or in college.

It would make my fall if it happens. I hope it does. But until I see it, I am not expecting it.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 19, 2024, 08:19:53 PMSXD,

I can get on board with the idea that if he throws for about 4k yards, at least 25 TDs, about 10 picks, a rating in the mid 90s, AND the team makes the playoffs, then he has a pretty good shot of being brought back on this contract.

Those are A LOT of ifs though. First off, those are make believe numbers. Starting with the team itself. The Giants won 6 games last year, and their over/under is 6.5 this year. To win something like 10 or 11 is an extremely optimistic projection.

Secondly, that projection on Jones is incredibly optimistic. He has never come close to 4,000 passing yards, and last year he was absolutely awful, AND he just lost his best offensive player he had last year.

Do I think he is actually as bad as he was last year? No, I do not. But 4,000/25/10 is not something we have seen him do to this point and it's a long, long way from what he showed on the field last year. And on top of that, he's coming off an ACL.

Time will tell. It's great to be optimistic. Nothing would make me happier this fall than if Jones were suddenly, out of the blue, a very good QB despite never having been that in five years in the NFL or in college.

It would make my fall if it happens. I hope it does. But until I see it, I am not expecting it.

Total yards leaders 2023:

Josh Allen 4,830
Dak Prescott
Tua Tugaviloa
Jared Goff
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson 4,499

I think anyone predicting Jones to be in the top 5 or top 10 yardage wise in the NFL didn't watch the Giants the past two seasons. I mean that's a Wild statement no matter what side of the coin you fall on.

As far as numbers I think EPA and BTTR are metrics we significantly need to improve on at least for our team and what Daboll wants to do. You always see Allen at the top of these two lists, Allen was actually only beaten in BTTR by Tyrod Taylor 8.9%, Stafford 6.3% and Allen 6.2%. For reference Jones hasn't gotten above 2.5% in the past 3 years. He was 39th out of 41 qbs, which was actually better than his 2022 output.

Out of 33 Qbs since 2019 that have registered 1200 snaps Jones ranks 32nd in EPA/Play.

Daniel Jones 2023 ranks:
#30 in EPA/att (-0.24)
 #30 in YPA (6.0)
#28 in pass success rate (38%)
 #32 in TD rate (1.8%)
#33 in TD:INT ratio (2:4)
#31 in explosive pass rate (11%)

We have by far the worst Qb situation in the NFC and I don't know that it is close. I would say the NFL, but the Broncos likely have us beat unless Bo Nix shows something this season and gives them hope.

I would be fascinated to hear @kingm56 and your answer to if there is a Qb group currently that you wouldn't take over Jones/Lock in the NFL currently outside The Broncos with Stidham/Nix?

Quote from: Jclayton92 on June 19, 2024, 09:32:41 PMI would be fascinated to hear @kingm56 and your answer to if there is a Qb group currently that you wouldn't take over Jones/Lock in the NFL currently outside The Broncos with Stidham/Nix?

There certainly aren't many that look worse on paper right now. Maybe Levis/Rudolph, maybe Minshew/O'Connell, and maybe Denver as you said. But there's no guarantee we're better than any of those.

It's definitely a tough situation. If Jones looks anything like he did last year, then we likely have the worst. If he reverts to 2022 form, then it won't be as bad (albeit still far from good).

Quote from: Jclayton92 on June 19, 2024, 09:32:41 PMTotal yards leaders 2023:

Josh Allen 4,830
Dak Prescott
Tua Tugaviloa
Jared Goff
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson 4,499

I think anyone predicting Jones to be in the top 5 or top 10 yardage wise in the NFL didn't watch the Giants the past two seasons. I mean that's a Wild statement no matter what side of the coin you fall on.

As far as numbers I think EPA and BTTR are metrics we significantly need to improve on at least for our team and what Daboll wants to do. You always see Allen at the top of these two lists, Allen was actually only beaten in BTTR by Tyrod Taylor 8.9%, Stafford 6.3% and Allen 6.2%. For reference Jones hasn't gotten above 2.5% in the past 3 years. He was 39th out of 41 qbs, which was actually better than his 2022 output.

Out of 33 Qbs since 2019 that have registered 1200 snaps Jones ranks 32nd in EPA/Play.

Daniel Jones 2023 ranks:
#30 in EPA/att (-0.24)
 #30 in YPA (6.0)
#28 in pass success rate (38%)
 #32 in TD rate (1.8%)
#33 in TD:INT ratio (2:4)
#31 in explosive pass rate (11%)

We have by far the worst Qb situation in the NFC and I don't know that it is close. I would say the NFL, but the Broncos likely have us beat unless Bo Nix shows something this season and gives them hope.

I would be fascinated to hear @kingm56 and your answer to if there is a Qb group currently that you wouldn't take over Jones/Lock in the NFL currently outside The Broncos with Stidham/Nix?

Jeff mentioned the QBs duo I would have highlighted; however, when you factor passing production relative to current and future cap hits, I'm forced to agree with you. At present, we may have to worse QB situation in the NFL.  Id rather have the promise of Daniel's, Williams or Maye than our current paradigm.  Hopefully DJs output will improve to justify his salary.

If you don't factor DJs salary cap burden, Tenn is the worst; however, they should be primed for a top pick next seasons.  Entering the season with a lousy QB situation maybe their strategy.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 19, 2024, 08:19:53 PMSXD,

I can get on board with the idea that if he throws for about 4k yards, at least 25 TDs, about 10 picks, a rating in the mid 90s, AND the team makes the playoffs, then he has a pretty good shot of being brought back on this contract.

Those are A LOT of ifs though. First off, those are make believe numbers. Starting with the team itself. The Giants won 6 games last year, and their over/under is 6.5 this year. To win something like 10 or 11 is an extremely optimistic projection.

Secondly, that projection on Jones is incredibly optimistic. He has never come close to 4,000 passing yards, and last year he was absolutely awful, AND he just lost his best offensive player he had last year.

Do I think he is actually as bad as he was last year? No, I do not. But 4,000/25/10 is not something we have seen him do to this point and it's a long, long way from what he showed on the field last year. And on top of that, he's coming off an ACL.

Time will tell. It's great to be optimistic. Nothing would make me happier this fall than if Jones were suddenly, out of the blue, a very good QB despite never having been that in five years in the NFL or in college.

It would make my fall if it happens. I hope it does. But until I see it, I am not expecting it.

Dave,

I respect your opinion and I can see where you are coming from, I also appreciate how you addressed me in a civil and mild manner, it is truly appreciated.

However, there are a few points that I would like to address, and I've highlighted them in bold up above.

You said that 4,000 25/10 is not something we've seen him do before, but in 2022 his total numbers (passing and rushing) were actually very close to that, as I have the following.

3,900 total yards - 67% - 22 TD - 5 Int - 93.2 RTG - 60.6 QBR

Dave, you also said that in five years DJ has never been a good QB, correct?

However, with the numbers I have presented in 2022, having a 93.2 RTG ranked 13th, and a 60.0 QBR ranked 6th, wouldn't that show that he actually was a good QB that year?

Final thoughts, please remember that the "total yardage" numbers were projections from the OP article and not my numbers.

Last question for you though.

Let's say DJ does put up 4,000 yards, 20-25 TDs, 10 Int, and a 93.4 RTG, but they don't make the playoffs, do the Giants bring him back?

Curious your thoughts?

Quote from: Jclayton92 on June 19, 2024, 09:32:41 PMTotal yards leaders 2023:

Josh Allen 4,830
Dak Prescott
Tua Tugaviloa
Jared Goff
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson 4,499

I think anyone predicting Jones to be in the top 5 or top 10 yardage wise in the NFL didn't watch the Giants the past two seasons. I mean that's a Wild statement no matter what side of the coin you fall on.

As far as numbers I think EPA and BTTR are metrics we significantly need to improve on at least for our team and what Daboll wants to do. You always see Allen at the top of these two lists, Allen was actually only beaten in BTTR by Tyrod Taylor 8.9%, Stafford 6.3% and Allen 6.2%. For reference Jones hasn't gotten above 2.5% in the past 3 years. He was 39th out of 41 qbs, which was actually better than his 2022 output.

Out of 33 Qbs since 2019 that have registered 1200 snaps Jones ranks 32nd in EPA/Play.

Daniel Jones 2023 ranks:
#30 in EPA/att (-0.24)
 #30 in YPA (6.0)
#28 in pass success rate (38%)
 #32 in TD rate (1.8%)
#33 in TD:INT ratio (2:4)
#31 in explosive pass rate (11%)

We have by far the worst Qb situation in the NFC and I don't know that it is close. I would say the NFL, but the Broncos likely have us beat unless Bo Nix shows something this season and gives them hope.

I would be fascinated to hear @kingm56 and your answer to if there is a Qb group currently that you wouldn't take over Jones/Lock in the NFL currently outside The Broncos with Stidham/Nix?

Hi,

I appreciate your thoughts here, and I highlighted the part I wanted to address in bold, but that wasn't my prediction. I was expressing the full numbers (passing and rushing) for DJ if he played a full 17 game season by the OPs article which he had linked up above at the beginning of this topic.

However, time will tell.