Big Blue Huddle

I am reading a book on scouting that has a chapter on this topic.   Many different theories were put forth by NFL people.  What do you think?

Clearly there are multiple reasons. Here are a few thoughts (in no order at all):

(1) The player is talented and unfinished product, and he goes to a team with very poor player development capacity, and he not only doesn't get better but builds bad habits.

(2) Poor attitude in general. Was able to overcome it to some degree in college, but not at the next level (see Kadarius Toney).

(3) Game just doesn't translate to the NFL game well. They might only being able to handle a college system and have an inability to adapt to an NFL system.

(4) Scouts sometimes just get it wrong. Sometimes mediocre players are put in situations where they can be productive in college due to scheme, lack of depth on the team, and other reasons. But in reality they're not actually that good.

(5) Size issues.

(6) Lack of a true position (see Isiah Simmons).


There are plenty of others but those are a handful.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 22, 2024, 10:22:57 AMClearly there are multiple reasons. Here are a few thoughts (in no order at all):

(1) The player is talented and unfinished product, and he goes to a team with very poor player development capacity, and he not only doesn't get better but builds bad habits.

(2) Poor attitude in general. Was able to overcome it to some degree in college, but not at the next level (see Kadarius Toney).

(3) Game just doesn't translate to the NFL game well. They might only being able to handle a college system and have an inability to adapt to an NFL system.

(4) Scouts sometimes just get it wrong. Sometimes mediocre players are put in situations where they can be productive in college due to scheme, lack of depth on the team, and other reasons. But in reality they're not actually that good.

(5) Size issues.

(6) Lack of a true position (see Isiah Simmons).


There are plenty of others but those are a handful.

Have to agree with all the above. Personally, I think it has a lot to do with the stuff between the ears. Some players are just "football smart" and some players have in internal monster that pushes them to another level of play. They were good enough (even gifted) to get drafted, but it's the heart and soul of a man that makes all the difference in the world. Not exactly easy to measure. We have a few of those guys on the team...Kayvon, Dex, JMS, even DJ and I'd add Slayton to that list. They are driven to do nothing more than be the very best their body and brain will allow them to be - no distractions, just football, every minute of every day

A couple from the book.   

The team drafts a player the coaches didn't like


The player can't handle the speed of the NFl

maturity too...some of these guys are just 20 or 21 coming into the pros, with no 'real world' experience beyond college.

look at his mess as #1 picks....something is wrong somewhere in Denmark.  Way to many more misses than hits

After the fact these picks seem largely clueless....or lazy picks from mock drafts we referenced

2011   19   Prince Amukamara   Defensive back   Nebraska   [87]
2012   32   David Wilson   Running back   Virginia Tech   [88]
2013   19   Justin Pugh   Tackle   Syracuse   [89]
2014   12   Odell Beckham Jr.   Wide receiver   LSU   [90]
2015   9   Ereck Flowers   Tackle   Miami (Florida)   [91]
2016   10   Eli Apple   Cornerback   Ohio State   [92]
2017   23   Evan Engram   Tight end   Mississippi   [93]
2018   2   Saquon Barkley   Running back   Penn State   [94]
2019   6   Daniel Jones   Quarterback   Duke   [95]
2019   17   Dexter Lawrence   Defensive tackle   Clemson   [96]
2019   30   Deandre Baker   Cornerback   Georgia   [97][t]
2020   4   Andrew Thomas   Tackle   Georgia   [98]
2021   20   Kadarius Toney   Wide receiver   Florida   [99]
2022   5   Kayvon Thibodeaux   Defensive end   Oregon   [100]
2022   7   Evan Neal   Tackle   Alabama   [101][w]
2023   24   Deonte Banks   Cornerback   Maryland   [102]

2024   6   Malik Nabers   Wide receiver   LSU   [103]

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 22, 2024, 10:22:57 AM(2) Poor attitude in general. Was able to overcome it to some degree in college, but not at the next level (see Kadarius Toney).

Great post! I think poor attitude is more common than people realize. Kadarius Toney made sure everyone knew he had a bad attitude, but there are a lot of players out there with poor attitudes who are better at keeping it to themselves. But at the end of the day a poor attitude makes it so much harder to be successful in a difficult job.

I'm betting if you could go back and interview a random sample of 100 former players who are considered busts, a significant number would tell you they were too immature at the time or just didn't have their head screwed on straight.

I also think the speed of the game is a huge factor. You can have all the tools in the world but if you're thinking too much while you're playing, you'll find yourself a step behind more often than not.

Quote from: Doc16LT56 on June 22, 2024, 11:25:58 AMGreat post! I think poor attitude is more common than people realize. Kadarius Toney made sure everyone knew he had a bad attitude, but there are a lot of players out there with poor attitudes who are better at keeping it to themselves. But at the end of the day a poor attitude makes it so much harder to be successful in a difficult job.

I'm betting if you could go back and interview a random sample of 100 former players who are considered busts, a significant number would tell you they were too immature at the time or just didn't have their head screwed on straight.

I also think the speed of the game is a huge factor. You can have all the tools in the world but if you're thinking too much while you're playing, you'll find yourself a step behind more often than not.

Excellent take

NFL players are just bigger, stronger, faster.....hard to equate a good college performance to a guaranteed NFL success.  Must be a shock to many new players making the jump

Some just are so talented then never really had to work or study
Once they get to the NFL
They cant catch up
Trying to really try and learn the playbook and understand
When you never had to must be hard

Quote from: ralphpal1 on June 22, 2024, 12:39:54 PMSome just are so talented then never really had to work or study
Once they get to the NFL
They cant catch up
Trying to really try and learn the playbook and understand
When you never had to must be hard

Similar to that, many of the highly touted players were the best player on every team they ever played on, going back to pee-wees. They get drafted into the NFL and they are not even the best player at their position on that team initially. That creates doubts for many. Add that they now have money, are told what and when to eat, time in the weight room is no longer optional, and all the other changes that go with being an NFL Player, it is a mental shift that is often just too much for a 20/21/22-year-old.

What's the definition of bust?  I sont think it's a pick who just becomes +\- average.  Think it's a complete failure.  Also a big injury does not count as a bust such as David Wilson

Under my definition, busts are due to 1) poor evaluation of qualitative factors such as maturity, drive, listens to instructions/coachability, etc and/or 2) a coaching staff thinking it can improve the qualitatives. If a player has good qualitatives, I think his downside is average.  Bad means bust

One other reason brought up-  Drafting for need rather than for talent

Quote from: Philosophers on June 22, 2024, 04:01:52 PMWhat's the definition of bust?  I sont think it's a pick who just becomes +\- average.  Think it's a complete failure. 

I agree with that. Hence when I pushed back pretty directly in a thread a couple weeks back when a forum member suggested Thibodeaux is a bust.

In my mind, pretty much in line with what you said, a "bust" is a player who had high to very high expectations coming in who ends up pretty much being an abject failure. Evan Neal appears to be a bust (barring a sudden turnaround). Kadarius Toney is a bust. Clint Sintim was a bust. Trey Lance is a bust.

A player with high expectations who ends up being just mediocre, ok or good, but not awful, is not really a bust to me. "Disappointment" is more the word I would use in these cases.

It happens in EVERY profession. It's about how you deal with change and react to being challenged.

There are only a handful of truly gifted people who seem to almost transcend reality on the field in the NFL.

The vast majority are actually a bunch of schlubs who excelled in college football because they were blessed with well-above-average physical size and strength. Upon leaving the comfort zone of college, the average NFL guy finds out that REAL WORK is involved in pro success. Some do the work. Most don't want to, or don't know how, or can't keep up physically or mentally, or just get distracted with personal issues. It's life. It's not a mystery, IMO.

Bob

I'm all about situation.

Jalen Hurts goes to almost any NFL team, and nobody knows who he is. He goes to the Eagles, sucks eggs, loses to Joe Judge's Giants and looks like he can't even complete a forward pass.

Next year he's in the MVP running, when they add Brown and Smith at WR and their OL gets healthy.

Take Evan Neal. What if he's drafted by the Cowboys (who had him #1 overall on their board)? With bookend tackles, they probably just plug him in at G right away and he mashes people. It's where you go, and what the circumstances are.

I also believe there's an overall cut-throatness and grind required to be an NFL player, and some people say "thanks, but no thanks".