Big Blue Huddle

Someone needs to inform the 50 NFL coaches and executives who ranked Daniel Jones in the 4th tier of QBs that instead of being objective observers, they suffer from this (fictitious) disease. I'm sure they will be shocked and revisit their evaluation, which was assuredly based off just the 6 abysmal 2023 games and not the balance of his career.

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on September 02, 2024, 09:58:22 AMSomeone needs to inform the 50 NFL coaches and executives who ranked Daniel Jones in the 4th tier of QBs that instead of being objective observers, they suffer from this (fictitious) disease. I'm sure they will be shocked and revisit their evaluation, which was assuredly based off just the 6 abysmal 2023 games and not the balance of his career.

5.5 games. He was fantastic in the second half of the Cards game.

Credit, where credit is due.

Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on September 02, 2024, 10:05:16 AM5.5 games. He was fantastic in the second half of the Cards game.

Credit, where credit is due.

They probably ignored that given they have DJDS. As we know, the only objective observers of Daniel Jones are those who continually support him and attack any criticism as invalid--anyone perpetrating an iota of that criticism are ignorant haters afflicted with the terrible DJDS.

The derangement is in thinking it's a fan's job to evaluate the QB, the system, or the surrounding players and coaches. It's the organization that makes excuses for results going on a generation that have turned the Giants into the Jets. Some people may enjoy being lied to year after year, while others take the results at face value.

Imagine thinking you don't know who a 6th year QB is. That's where the Giants are as an organization and why they're stuck in this endless loop where mediocrity is a best case scenario.

Quote from: MightyGiants on September 02, 2024, 08:39:56 AMI am a big fan of good process.  I will confess that whenever I hear a fan talk about "excuses" when it comes to evaluating a QB (usually Daniel Jones), I can't help but feel that the speaker doesn't use the good process to evaluate a quarterback.  I think it is or is close to a fact that a QB's performance is significantly impacted by the three pillars of support-  coaching/scheme, protection, and receivers.

To dismiss consideration of a QBs support by calling it "excuses" shows me a badly flawed evaluation process.


That said, ultimately, Jones could prove not to be a franchise-caliber quarterback due to injury or lack of ability (or both). However, those who got there via the "making excuses" approach reached that conclusion by dumb luck rather than proper evaluation, at least in my opinion.

Mighty,

This is a good and reasonable approach.

I have also observed that some critics of DJ continue to express a statement that he hasn't been in good in six years, but this simply isn't true.   

They ignore his rookie year in 2019 which produced these results in just 13 games.

61% 3027 Yards 24 TD 12 int 87.7 RTG

and in 2022

67% 3900 total yards 22 TD 5 Int 92.5 RTG 60.0 QBR

Hence, in five years of play, he has had three bad years, but two good years in my opinion.

It is because of those positive years, that it gives us fans hope, that he may be able to rebound and put up a solid year in 2024 with his added skill position players and a better offensive line.

Having a balanced and reasonable approach is key to a proper evaluation.

Let's see what transpires in 2024.

Quote from: MightyGiants on September 02, 2024, 08:39:56 AMI am a big fan of good process.   I will confess that whenever I hear a fan talk about "excuses" when it comes to evaluating a QB (usually Daniel Jones), I can't help but feel that the speaker doesn't use the good process to evaluate a quarterback.  I think it is or is close to a fact that a QB's performance is significantly impacted by the three pillars of support-  coaching/scheme, protection, and receivers.

To dismiss consideration of a QBs support by calling it "excuses" shows me a badly flawed evaluation process.


That said, ultimately, Jones could prove not to be a franchise-caliber quarterback due to injury or lack of ability (or both). However, those who got there via the "making excuses" approach reached that conclusion by dumb luck rather than proper evaluation, at least in my opinion.

It's not that anyone is dismissing the supporting cast, we're just not using it as the entirety of our analysis. The defense of Jones basically boils down to the idea that a QB is nothing beyond what is around him. You seem to want to pass off any argument against him as pure bias rather than reasoned analysis.

You can analyze the QB beyond his supporting cast and when he is having issues at the NFL level (e.g. slow processing and reading defenses) that he had at the college level, the simple answer may be that he's not that good. If Daniel Jones played for any other team, how many people currently defending him would be fine giving him a $40M AAV, even going so far as to try and pass it off as a bargain?

Quote from: sxdxca38 on September 02, 2024, 10:16:54 AMMighty,

This is a good and reasonable approach.

I have also observed that some critics of DJ continue to express a statement that he hasn't been in good in six years, but this simply isn't true.   

They ignore his rookie year in 2019 which produced these results in just 13 games.

61% 3027 Yards 24 TD 12 int 87.7 RTG

and in 2022

67% 3900 total yards 22 TD 5 Int 92.5 RTG 60.0 QBR

Hence, in five years of play, he has had three bad years, but two good years in my opinion.

It is because of those positive years, that it gives us fans hope, that he may be able to rebound and put up a solid year in 2024 with his added skill position players and a better offensive line.

Having a balanced and reasonable approach is key to a proper evaluation.

Let's see what transpires in 2024.

I see this as a bit of a problem in terms of evaluation. You're more than happy to rely on the two good years of his 5 year career and basically ignore what you see as the bad years.

In 2020, he played 14 games, threw for 2,943 years (210 yards per game), and completed 62.5%,  threw for 11(!) TDs and 10 Ints with a QBR of 54.0 (he rushed for 1 TD and 423 yards, fumbled 3 times, lost 2)

In 2021: he played 11 games, threw for 2,428 (220 yards per game), completed 64.3%, threw 10 TDs to 7 Ints with a 47.5 QBR. He rushed for 298 yards for 2 scores, fumbled twice and lost 1.

You've listed the 2022, so I wont repeat them, although the rushing really needs to be added on here with 708 yards and 7(!) TDs, 2 fumbles, one lost.

2023: We know the story, 909 yards in 6 games (151.5 yards per game) with two TDs and 206 yards rushing with 1 TD and 1 fumble which he recovered.

He is what he is. He puts up relatively pedestrian numbers and, in my opinion, was not worth the top-10 contract when it was offered, especially considering the holes all over the roster.

Those numbers are eating up 18.4% of the CAP, according to Over the Cap, with a hit of $47.8m


Some other relatively pedestrian numbers that you could have had.



Gardner Minshew
2023: 17 games, 3305 yards (194 yards per game), 15 TDs, 9 Ints, 59.6 QBR, 100 rushing yards, 3 TDS, 2 fumbles, 0 lost. Cap hit $8m, which jumps to $14m the following season.

2020: 9 games, 2259 yards, 251 yards per game, 16 TDs, 5 Ints, QBR 44.0, 153 yards rushing, 1 TD, 1 fumble, 0 lost

2019: 14 games, 3271 yards (233 yards per game), 21 TDs, 6 Ints, 44.6 QBR, 344 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 3 fumbles, 2 lost.

Total career (ignoring backup years in Philly), 40 games, 8,835 yards (220 yards per game), 52 TDs, 20 Ints, 49.4 QBR, 597 rushing, 4 rushing TDs, 5 fumbles, 2 lost.

In comparison, Jones has 60 games, 12,512 yards (208 yards per game), 62 TDs, 40 Ints, 1,914 rushing, 13 TDs, 14 fumbles with 7 lost. Are these discernibly better numbers than Minshew when you take into the cost of each contract?

Look at Baker Mayfield, prior to last season. People on this board never expected him to have the season he had nor parlay that into a big deal. But before his debut season in Tampa, so at the same time as Jones signed his deal his career was:

72 Games over 5 seasons, 16,288 yards (226 yards per game), 102 TDs, 64 Ints, with 660 yards rushing, 6 TDs, 15 fumbles, 3 lost. On the basis of this career, Mayfield signed a $4m deal with the Bucs with a cap hit of $2.3mil.

Those are just two contracts that were signed within the last 2 seasons. There could be others.

My point, if you got this far is that there are bridge QBs around. You do not have to issue a top-10 contract for numbers that be near-replicated by other pedestrian QBs. Granted, he is a far superior rusher than those two listed, and that is to his absolute credit.

Overall, this is just my opinion; perhaps I'll be called a 'hater' or 'unreasonable' or not being able to 'evaluate' the position, but my work is based on facts and figures.

You can disagree with the broad findings if you wish, but is it he really proven to be any better than those cheaper guys? They exist out there, and fair play to Mayfield for turning in an excellent season last year – I fully expect that contract to be an albatross as well.

If someone else wants to run numbers on other pedestrian QBs, the methodology used was to examine ESPN career stats and get the financials from Over the Cap.

You really can't take in account his rookie year if year 2 and 3 were better
They didn't have tape on him
If he regressed in year 2 and 3
That just means D Jones  didn't adjust to what  the defenses was doing

Quote from: jgrangers2 on September 02, 2024, 10:59:45 AMIt's not that anyone is dismissing the supporting cast, we're just not using it as the entirety of our analysis. The defense of Jones basically boils down to the idea that a QB is nothing beyond what is around him. You seem to want to pass off any argument against him as pure bias rather than reasoned analysis.

You can analyze the QB beyond his supporting cast and when he is having issues at the NFL level (e.g. slow processing and reading defenses) that he had at the college level, the simple answer may be that he's not that good. If Daniel Jones played for any other team, how many people currently defending him would be fine giving him a $40M AAV, even going so far as to try and pass it off as a bargain?

There are things to unpack, but I think the part in bold is the most important to address.  You can evaluate a QB beyond his supporting cast, like you can evaluate a college QB and project what they will do in the NFL.  At best, such evaluations are an inexact science.  As for the particular aspects you mention, those are ones that many (except for Greg Cosell, who doesn't make such claims) outside the NFL film grinders claim to be able to determine, but the reality is they really can't, not with any degree of certainty.  How fast a QB appears to be processing is dependent on both schemes and the talent of the receivers he is throwing to.  If your first read is Benny Fowler (who isn't open), then your second read is to Kenny Golladay (who isn't open), and your third read is to CJ Board (who isn't open), and DJ is forced to check it down to Barkley (who drops the ball), he isn't going to appear to be all that quick in terms of processing.  Now, if he looks to his first read Nabers (and he is open) and he throws it at his open man, he is going to appear to be processing quickly.    As for reading defenses, there is no indication that those in the building believe that DJ has an issue with that aspect of the game.  Those on the outside looking in are really not being honest if they claim they know exactly what is happening as many don't know the play, they don't know the design of how it should be run, and all of them don't know what DJ was instructed to do by his coaches.

So, in the end, those who dismiss the supporting pillars (which can be reasonably determined by those outside 1925 Giants Way) shouldn't be dismissed as "making excuses."  Those pillars greatly impact production.  How often do you hear DJ's detractors cite stats (while usually ignoring his contributions via his legs) even though stats will be dependent on a QB's support?

As for his middle-of-the-road salary, I am not sure what the point is. I mean, if a quarterback really stinks, I have never heard anyone say, "It's okay; our quarterback stinks, and he isn't being paid much money."
 

Quote from: MightyGiants on September 02, 2024, 12:48:13 PMThere are things to unpack, but I think the part in bold is the most important to address.  You can evaluate a QB beyond his supporting cast, like you can evaluate a college QB and project what they will do in the NFL.  At best, such evaluations are an inexact science.  As for the particular aspects you mention, those are ones that many (except for Greg Cosell, who doesn't make such claims) outside the NFL film grinders claim to be able to determine, but the reality is they really can't, not with any degree of certainty.  How fast a QB appears to be processing is dependent on both schemes and the talent of the receivers he is throwing to.  If your first read is Benny Fowler (who isn't open), then your second read is to Kenny Golladay (who isn't open), and your third read is to CJ Board (who isn't open), and DJ is forced to check it down to Barkley (who drops the ball), he isn't going to appear to be all that quick in terms of processing.  Now, if he looks to his first read Nabers (and he is open) and he throws it at his open man, he is going to appear to be processing quickly.    As for reading defenses, there is no indication that those in the building believe that DJ has an issue with that aspect of the game.  Those on the outside looking in are really not being honest if they claim they know exactly what is happening as many don't know the play, they don't know the design of how it should be run, and all of them don't know what DJ was instructed to do by his coaches.

So, in the end, those who dismiss the supporting pillars (which can be reasonably determined by those outside 1925 Giants Way) shouldn't be dismissed as "making excuses."  Those pillars greatly impact production.  How often do you hear DJ's detractors cite stats (while usually ignoring his contributions via his legs) even though stats will be dependent on a QB's support?

As for his middle-of-the-road salary, I am not sure what the point is. I mean, if a quarterback really stinks, I have never heard anyone say, "It's okay; our quarterback stinks, and he isn't being paid much money."
 

It's pretty simple, you can get very similar production elsewhere, for far cheaper, who acts a bridge QB until you get your one.

Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on September 02, 2024, 01:13:49 PMIt's pretty simple, you can get very similar production elsewhere, for far cheaper, who acts a bridge QB until you get your one.

I like to refer to this claim as the Mike Glennon argument.  Mike Glennon was considered a solid NFL backup until he was forced to play on the same conditions as DJ.   Things got pretty bad.   That's essentially what would happen when you put any of those, "Well, you could get this QB for so much less," in the same conditions as DJ.

I am sure there will be those who will try and counter what I said by pointing to 2023, only to do that, one needs to ignore the fact that both the pass protection and the receivers (one rookie improved, and one who was coming back from an ACL improved) improved as the season went on, giving DJ's backups much better conditions to work with.

Quote from: MightyGiants on September 02, 2024, 01:18:09 PMI like to refer to this claim as the Mike Glennon argument.  Mike Glennon was considered a solid NFL backup until he was forced to play on the same conditions as DJ.   Things got pretty bad.   That's essentially what would happen when you put any of those, "Well, you could get this QB for so much less," in the same conditions as DJ.

I am sure there will be those who will try and counter what I said by pointing to 2023, only to do that, one needs to ignore the fact that both the pass protection and the receivers (one rookie improved, and one who was coming back from an ACL improved) improved as the season went on, giving DJ's backups much better conditions to work with.

You'll note I didn't suggest Glennon.

Either way, it's circular. I spent 25 mins on a respectful post and it's not even properly engaged with.

If you can't see the point being raised and you and you don't think there was an alternative so be it. The Giants obviously happy with the situation otherwise there wouldn't have the active pursuit of the 3rd pick in the draft. So at least they, and their professional evaluators, can see the issue.
 

Quote from: MightyGiants on September 02, 2024, 08:39:56 AMJones could prove not to be a franchise-caliber quarterback due to injury or lack of ability (or both). However, those who got there via the "making excuses" approach reached that conclusion by dumb luck rather than proper evaluation, at least in my opinion.

Rich: IMO, the odds now make it likely Jones will be proven ultimately to NOT be a franchise QB. I too have him on my "now or never" list. 

I agree with your point (reproduced above). I will attempt to offer the inverse of that thought, because I believe it to be equally true...

If Jones fails to become a franchise QB, that result would NOT be evidence that fans who crapped their pants (starting the day he was drafted) ever engaged in an appropriate evaluation process.  Personally, I always try to keep in mind that we fans had (and still have) a lot less to lose than the professionals who took a shot on Jones (and who are, for whatever reason, still managing to keep the faith). If by some miracle Jones should succeed, I'll be here (not for myself but rather for those who drafted him and stuck with him until now) to "collect" substantial recompense on their behalf.

Bob

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on September 02, 2024, 10:09:49 AMThey probably ignored that given they have DJDS. As we know, the only objective observers of Daniel Jones are those who continually support him and attack any criticism as invalid--anyone perpetrating an iota of that criticism are ignorant haters afflicted with the terrible DJDS.

H-T: Sarcasm, of course, but not without a valid point.

The topic of Daniel Jones is a lot like a typical political issue, in which there is a vast (mostly silent) majority that is caught "in the middle," flanked by two extreme elements tossing grenades at each other.

The "not-unexpected" result of such an event is usually that most of the carnage from the explosions falls on the fans situated between the two combatants.

Bob

Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on September 02, 2024, 01:25:12 PMYou'll note I didn't suggest Glennon.

Either way, it's circular. I spent 25 mins on a respectful post and it's not even properly engaged with.

If you can't see the point being raised and you and you don't think there was an alternative so be it. The Giants obviously happy with the situation otherwise there wouldn't have the active pursuit of the 3rd pick in the draft. So at least they, and their professional evaluators, can see the issue.
 

It took you 25 minutes to post one sentence (the post I was responding to was you responding to me with a single sentence)?

Oddly enough while you were accusing me of not being able to see a point, you seemed to completely miss my point that a QB producing with better support pillars, and being paid less, will likely not play as well when he is forced into the terrible playing conditions DJ has had to deal with for most of his NFL (and college) career.