Big Blue Huddle

I'm starting to see a narrative that DJ injuries have hampered his abilities/production.  However, the data directly refutes said narrative.  DJ's 17-game averages remain consistent, and perdicable.  Post 2019, he has been a consistent 3,500 yards, 15 TDs, 8 Ints, and 85 rating QB.  His 2024 passing production is on pace to mimic 2022, which is considered his best season. The reason the Giants haven't enjoyed early success akin to 2022 is a byproduct of their failure to replicate Barkley's 1300+ yards/10 TDs.  Currently, our RBs are on pace for a measly 872 Yards and 5 TDs, which is a considerable drop off.  BL: DJ the passer, is not far from his 2022 production.

17-game average
2019 61.9  3958    34  16  87.7
2020 62.5  3573    13  12    80.4
2021 64.3  3752    15  11    84.8   
2022 67.2  3405    15  5    92.5
2023 67.5  2575    5   17  70.5
2024 62.5  3502    15  9   80.6


DJs running production is also similar to his career averages; obviously, 2022 was a bit of an anomaly.  When you review his aggregate production, 2024 is similar to his career output: 

2019    365   2 TDs
2020   513   1 TDs
2021    460   3 TDs
2022    752     7 TDs
2023    583     1 TDs
2024    546     0 TDs


Most importantly, DJ's 17 game average W/L totals have remained consistent:

2019 4 - 13
2020 6 - 11
2021 6 - 11
2022 9 - 7 - 1
2023 2 - 15
2024 4 - 13

Conclusion - DJ's production has remained consistent throughout his career; the data doesn't support the narrative that DJ's injuries have hampered his production/evolution.  His 2024 production remains on par with his 2022 output, minus the rushing TDs.  What's changed are fans' perception.

I don't think they did, maybe his rushing some. I think that has exposed him to the mediocre passer that he always has been.

Quote from: kingm56 on October 22, 2024, 01:09:38 PMHowever, the data directly refutes said narrative.

Translation-  The data I hand-pick and present will prove my point.

To be frank, it's ludicrous to think with so many variables (coaching, scheme, protection, receivers, health, etc.) that, you could present some select quarterback stats (or worse, suggest the QB is solely responsible for wins and losses, even when he's hurt) and claim that they are the result of a single variable and all the other variables that impact performance should be ignored.

In engineering, we often try to look at the world through numbers.  We dismiss certain variables as having little impact to make equations manageable and solvable.  However things like coaching, scheme, health, protection, and receiving targets are the furthest thing from trivial non-consequential variables on a QB's performance.

Sorry for being blunt, but since the poster posted this to mock and belittle my opinions, I didn't feel a particularly strong need for tact or diplomacy.

The reality is DJ had a promising rookie season if he could resolve his penchant for turnovers.  He then was forced to endure two nightmare seasons with zero pillars of support (coaching/scheme, receivers, protection).  The nightmare ended with a serious neck injury sustained due to the lack of protection.

2022 was DJ's rehab year.  Slowly but surely, as the season progressed, he got better and played with more confidence in the last month of the season, culminating in an impressive victory against the Vikings in a hostile dome (with the Eagles being a complete team butt-kicking to end the season).  By the end of 2022 DJ had the self confidence needed to successfully employ his abilities on an NFL field.

Then came the nightmare that was the 2023 season, starting with one of the most brutal beatings a modern-day QB has endured in the Dallas opener (where AT got hurt on the blocked opening FG attempt).  With two major injuries and a season of brutal hits and sacks, DJ is seeing ghosts, as they say, and a second recovery of his self-confidence isn't in the cards, at least in the near term and unlikely with the Giants.

None of the stats posted remotely disproves the reality-based narrative I just provided, regardless of claims made to the contrary.

Quote from: MightyGiants on October 22, 2024, 01:27:46 PMTo be frank, it's ludicrous to think with so many variables (coaching, scheme, protection, receivers, health, etc.) that, you could present some select quarterback stats (or worse, suggest the QB is solely responsible for wins and losses, even when he's hurt) and claim that they are the result of a single variable and all the other variables that impact performance should be ignored.

In engineering, we often try to look at the world through numbers.  We dismiss certain variables as having little impact to make equations manageable and solvable.  However things like coaching, scheme, health, protection, and receiving targets are the furthest thing from trivial non-consequential variables on a QB's performance.

Sorry for being blunt, but since the poster posted this to mock and belittle my opinions, I didn't feel a particularly strong need for tact or diplomacy.

The reality is DJ had a promising rookie season if he could resolve his penchant for turnovers.  He then was forced to endure two nightmare seasons with zero pillars of support (coaching/scheme, receivers, protection).  The nightmare ended with a serious neck injury sustained due to the lack of protection.

2022 was DJ's rehab year.  Slowly but surely, as the season progressed, he got better and played with more confidence in the last month of the season, culminating in an impressive victory against the Vikings in a hostile dome (with the Eagles being a complete team butt-kicking to end the season).  By the end of 2022 DJ had the self confidence needed to successfully employ his abilities on an NFL field.

Then came the nightmare that was the 2023 season, starting with one of the most brutal beatings a modern-day QB has endured in the Dallas opener (where AT got hurt on the blocked opening FG attempt).  With two major injuries and a season of brutal hits and sacks, DJ is seeing ghosts, as they say, and a second recovery of his self-confidence isn't in the cards, at least in the near term and unlikely with the Giants.

None of the stats posted remotely disproves the reality-based narrative I just provided, regardless of claims made to the contrary.

Factoring your track record regarding QBs analysis, from Joe Burrow to David Webb to DJ, I feel very comfortable taking an opposing view as you.  In fact, I feel great about my position.

To be equally frank with you, your track record regarding QB's trajectory doesn't warrant this level of arrogance.

And to answer your DM, your opening line is why we can't get along.

Quote from: kingm56 on October 22, 2024, 01:42:49 PMTranslation - my clear declaration that DJ was a franchise QB and that I was happy the "giants signed their long terminated
Factoring your track record regarding QBs analysis, from Joe Burrow to David Webb to DJ, I feel very comfortable taking an opposing view as you.

Your track record regarding QBs trajectory doesn't warrant this level of arrogance.

And to answer your DM, your opening line is why we can't get along.

Sorry, but neither your misleading characterization of my past position nor your self-declarations of your superiority negate what I said.

I don't think his injuries have diminished his ability physically, if that's what you mean Matt. I do however think his mental resilience and intestinal fortitude has diminished and there are many reasons for that.

Quote from: Ed Vette on October 22, 2024, 02:02:43 PMI don't think his injuries have diminished his ability physically, if that's what you mean Matt. I do however think his mental resilience and intestinal fortitude has diminished and there are many reasons for that.

Ed,

On the physical side, I don't think DJ's running ability has returned.  In past seasons he would have gotten more yards on his rushing attempts than what we witnessed.

One of the stats that @kingm56 omitted because it didn't fit his narrative was DJ's yards per rushing attempt.

2022-  5.9 yards per attempt
2023-  5.2 yards per attempt
2024-  3.7 yards per attempt

It seems to me a case can be made that DJ's rushing ability has not returned (at least not yet) post-ACL.

Quote from: MightyGiants on October 22, 2024, 02:08:46 PMEd,

On the physical side, I don't think DJ's running ability has returned.  In past seasons he would have gotten more yards on his rushing attempts than what we witnessed.

One of the stats that @kingm56 omitted because it didn't fit his narrative was DJ's yards per rushing attempt.

2022-  5.9 yards per attempt
2023-  5.2 yards per attempt
2024-  3.7 yards per attempt

It seems to me a case can be made that DJ's rushing ability has not returned (at least not yet) post-ACL.

This. This right here is the type of stuff that you do and when he snaps back at you, you want to cry wolf and how no one respects you.

Please, for the love of the BBH, stop it.

Quote from: T200 on October 22, 2024, 02:16:42 PMThis. This right here is the type of stuff that you do and when he snaps back at you, you want to cry wolf and how no one respects you.

Please, for the love of the BBH, stop it.

Tim,

It's funny; if I had started a post to belittling another poster's opinion, you would have been all over me (and rightfully so). However, since the post was targeting me, not only didn't you have an issue with it, but you liked it to encourage more of the same.

Of course, you would have accused me of intellectual dishonesty if I left out stats that ran contrary to my narrative as @kingm56 did.

Then again, not only have you finally admitted to something I have known for years (that you don't respect me), but you have also even declared yourself the spokesperson for everyone on the forum and declared no one respects me.   Despite your best efforts, I have to say that isn't true. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on October 22, 2024, 02:26:02 PMTim,

It's funny; if I had started a post to belittling another poster's opinion, you would have been all over me (and rightfully so). However, since the post was targeting me, not only didn't you have an issue with it, but you liked it to encourage more of the same.

Of course, you would have accused me of intellectual dishonesty if I left out stats that ran contrary to my narrative as @kingm56 did.

Then again, not only have you finally admitted to something I have known for years (that you don't respect me), but you have also even declared yourself the spokesperson for everyone on the forum and declared no one respects me.   Despite your best efforts, I have to say that isn't true. 

First, please show me where Matt targeted you in his OP.

Second, your post belies your intelligence. I should not have to tell you this but here I am doing it:

I said, "... you want to cry wolf and how no one respects you." Meaning, that is YOUR battle cry, not my (false) declaration that you aren't respected here. In true Rich fashion, you take words and twist them into an insult and once again, cry victim.

You throw stuff out there as if no one is going to pick up on it but when you're called out on it, you feel attacked. You're just getting what you put out, Rich.

And for the record, I do know these things should be handled behind the scenes but when you openly go after me earlier today and now a member, it also needs to be addressed in the open.

Of course, you're not going to back down. And neither am I. You will continue to do you and I will continue to do me.

Respect goes both ways. Again, I ask you to show me where Matt targeted you in his OP.

Quote from: MightyGiants on October 22, 2024, 02:08:46 PMEd,

On the physical side, I don't think DJ's running ability has returned.  In past seasons he would have gotten more yards on his rushing attempts than what we witnessed.

One of the stats that @kingm56 omitted because it didn't fit his narrative was DJ's yards per rushing attempt.

2022-  5.9 yards per attempt
2023-  5.2 yards per attempt
2024-  3.7 yards per attempt

It seems to me a case can be made that DJ's rushing ability has not returned (at least not yet) post-ACL.

My recollections are he has designed runs between the tackles and not much Read Option Runs. There is more traffic inside but they are designed to get the first down. I do see him giving himself up more except for that one play where he really toughed it out. This does have something to do with it. Do you think his quickness or top speed has been affected?

Quote from: T200 on October 22, 2024, 02:37:41 PMFirst, please show me where Matt targeted you in his OP.

Second, your post belies your intelligence. I should not have to tell you this but here I am doing it:

I said, "... you want to cry wolf and how no one respects you." Meaning, that is YOUR battle cry, not my (false) declaration that you aren't respected here. In true Rich fashion, you take words and twist them into an insult and once again, cry victim.

You throw stuff out there as if no one is going to pick up on it but when you're called out on it, you feel attacked. You're just getting what you put out, Rich.

And for the record, I do know these things should be handled behind the scenes but when you openly go after me earlier today and now a member, it also needs to be addressed in the open.

Of course, you're not going to back down. And neither am I. You will continue to do you and I will continue to do me.

Respect goes both ways. Again, I ask you to show me where Matt targeted you in his OP.

QuoteI'm starting to see a narrative that DJ injuries have hampered his abilities/production.  However, the data directly refutes said narrative.

QuoteConclusion - DJ's production has remained consistent throughout his career; the data doesn't support the narrative that DJ's injuries have hampered his production/evolution.  His 2024 production remains on par with his 2022 output, minus the rushing TDs.  What's changed are fans' perception.

Now, other than me, who has said that DJ is punch drunk from the beating he took in 2023?  I am the only one.  If you want to talk intelligence, please don't insult mine by suggesting he wasn't calling out my opinion with his cherry-picked stats.

So every mid-week thread is going to devolve into a Rich vs Tim war of word. This is getting tiring. 

Quote from: Ed Vette on October 22, 2024, 02:42:56 PMMy recollections are he has designed runs between the tackles and not much Read Option Runs. There is more traffic inside but they are designed to get the first down. I do see him giving himself up more except for that one play where he really toughed it out. This does have something to do with it. Do you think his quickness or top speed has been affected?

It's kind of funny.  Mike Lombardi (in his latest podcast) said if he was DJ's dad, he would be calling Daboll, wanting to know why he was trying to get his son killed with all those QB draws (the runs up the middle you were describing).

There have been runs where DJ failed to get the first down, where, to my eye, he would have picked up the first-down yardage in the past.  I don't think he's running scared, so to speak, I just don't think he's fully recovered from his ACL.  Despite his impressively quick return to action (a testament to his work ethic in rehab), the conventional wisdom seems to still hold that it takes at least a full year to fully recover.  Seeing how DJ tore his ACL in early November and didn't have surgery until late November, he has at least another month or so to get to the year mark (and hopefully full recovery, his new peak potential).

To my eye, DJ doesn't seem as fast or as quick to accelerate than he has in previous years.

Quote from: MightyGiants on October 22, 2024, 02:45:03 PMNow, other than me, who has said that DJ is punch drunk from the beating he took in 2023?  I am the only one.  If you want to talk intelligence, please don't insult mine by suggesting he wasn't calling out my opinion with his cherry-picked stats.

Rich,

There was an entire thread about DJ's injuries possibly affecting his play.

However, his post was not derogatory or negative in any way towards you or your opinion.