Big Blue Huddle

All I did was look at worst/ties records to Giants record.  4 teams at 1-6 and 5 at 2-5.

With their QB play so bad, nowbIn revising my projection to be that the Giants finish 4-13.

Why?

1). Giants have zero ability to materially improve their QB play barring a trade.  Sorry folks but do not believe DeVito generates wins.

2). Dabs will be dead man walking and I doubt players will rally around him.

3) Injuries will come into play as they always do and thin depth positions like Ol will bring down the team's olay more.

Utilizing 2023 season a 4-13 season would get them a draft position of 2 - 4, clearly an area in which they can target a QB.

Bad News

Of the 9 worst records listed, I think only the Patriots and Jaguars have their QBs so that means 7 teams could be vying for QB.  Of the current 1-6 teams, that means 3 of the 4 teams.

In 2023, QBs led the early (top 3 selections), however will that be the same in 2024?

1) are the 2024 QBs high enough caliber relative to other positions and prospects?

I dont believe the 2024 QB class is as talented as the 2023 class which means the worst teams will either overdraft a QB, trade back to get a QB later or simply draft another position.

Prospects like Danielle Hunter, Mason Graham, Will Johnson, Will Campbell may may get drafted within top 4 picks.

If Giants finish at 4-13 so say drafting 2nd-4th, they probably will get the best QB of a weaker class or 2nd best QB with some other positions getting drafted.

Here's the problem.  All the current top QB prospects including Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, Miller Moss and Jalen Milroe (aside from Carson Beck) are all 6' 2" or less.  Smaller QBs are not faring well in the NFL in terms of play or injuries.

I am not sure if it is in the Giants best interest to draft a smaller QB.  Yes Mahommes is doing well as a 6'2" QB, but Baker Mayfield has struggled for most of his career.  Tua is an injury waiting to happen.  Generally the successful NFL QBs (even the mobile ones like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson) are bigger than 6'3".

Do the Giants roll the dice for a smaller QB or draft a top prospect at another position and either trade for a QB and draft one in 2026?  That will be their dilemma.

The 2-3 wins they got in 2023 with Devito crippled their chances to draft top 3 QB in 2024 and now looks like it will put them in an unenviable position of drafting a smaller lower quality QB in 2025 or waiting til 2026 and trading for a QB in 2025.

Conclusion

Trade for a bridge QB, young QB prospect sitting on a bench and draft the BPA in 2025 as there are some great plyers.  Mason Graham is a 3 tech wrecking machine.  Will Johnson is the best boundary QB since Sauce Gardner.  Danielle Hunter would look great alingside Malik Nabers.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could in some way correlate or somehow reduce the breathless uncertainty in drafting a QB based on his size. And indeed, what is the size, a height thought to more or less promise success? Perhaps, no less than a Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers 6'2?

Of course, we might go an inch smaller to allow for Starr, Griese, and Unitas, or just rule them out as "earlier era" but would that then be fair to Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams, and Tua Tagovailoa? And speaking of fair, even if we discard Bryce Young and Kyler Murray, what would we say to Super Bowl winners Drew Brees (MVP) and Russell Wilson? You tell me. Would that it was so easy.

Cheers!

Quote from: Painter on October 23, 2024, 01:01:15 PMWouldn't it be nice if we could in some way correlate or somehow reduce the breathless uncertainty in drafting a QB based on his size. And indeed, what is the size, a height thought to more or less promise success? Perhaps, no less than a Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers 6'2?

Of course, we might go an inch smaller to allow for Starr, Griese, and Unitas, or just rule them out as "earlier era" but would that then be fair to Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams, and Tua Tagovailoa? And speaking of fair, even if we discard Bryce Young and Kyler Murray, what would we say to Super Bowl winners Drew Brees (MVP) and Russell Wilson? You tell me. Would that it was so easy.

Cheers!

Larry - I'll bet that if we look at the modern era say from 2010 on, I can come up with a much longer list of unsuccessful QBs 6'2" and under than you can of successful QBs?

Quote from: Philosophers on October 23, 2024, 01:16:59 PMLarry - I'll bet that if we look at the modern era say from 2010 on, I can come up with a much longer list of unsuccessful QBs 6'2" and under than you can of successful QBs?

I define the modern era as 2011/2012, when the NFL implemented changes limit concussions, protect wrs and QBs.  Since that time, only 3 QBs have entered the NFL under 6'2 and proved to be successful:

Russell Wilson - 5'11"
Kyler Murray - 5'10"
Baker Mayfield - 6'1"

QBs who played in that era and were successful:
Michael Vick - 6'0"
Drew Brees - 6'0"

As you stated, it's a pretty "short" list, Joe.

Quote from: kingm56 on October 23, 2024, 01:22:25 PMI define the modern era as 2011/2012, when the NFL implemented changes limit concussions, protect wrs and QBs.  Since that time, only 3 QBs have entered the NFL under 6'2 and proved to be successful:

Russell Wilson - 5'11"
Kyler Murray - 5'10"
Baker Mayfield - 6'1"

QBs who played in that era and were successful:
Michael Vick - 6'0"
Drew Brees - 6'0"

As you stated, it's a pretty "short" list, Joe.

Matt - to add to your point and Larry to debate yours a bit, I would question some of these QBs as "successful" or "durable". 

Baker Mayfield - completely agree since 2023 he has been successful (less than 1 1/2 seasons).  What about his prior 5 seasons as I would not call them all successful, therefore, I would call his career uneven.  if he continues his TB success, then would change my opinion of him to successful.

Kyler Murray - generally successful when he has played, but in his 90 games, he's played in only 72 of them (80%).

Tua - successful when he has played, but in his 67 possible games, he's played in only 53 (79%).

QB is the most protected position.  I believe strongly a QB has to be durable given that he's protected more by the rules, is the most expensive player generally on the team and is the most important position by far.  I don't think playing in 75% - 80% of games is adequate.

I agree Wilson, Vick and Brees were successful and durable.  I think the list is even shorter.

Larry also mentioned Brock Purdy which Inagree os successful.

Still the list is very short of 6'2" successful QBs