Big Blue Huddle

The reputation is that Daboll is an offensive genius and QB guru.  I thought I would go back into his history to test that idea. 

Methodology:

First QB Guru-  I will look at his 2 years as Jets QB coach, and years as an OC and as an HC to see how his QB performed against their career average.  In other words, did his QB (I will use the QB with the most games for a given season unless tied) have an above-average or below-average QB rating for that season against his career average?

Offensive guru-  How did the unit he was in charge of as OC or HC compare to the rest of the league in points and yards


QUARTERBACK GURU


Jets (QB Coach)

2007 Kellen Clemens-  below career average
2008 Brett Favre- below career average

Browns (OC)

2009 Derk Anderson- below career average/ Brady Quinn- above career average
2010 Colt McCoy- below career average

Dolphins (OC)

2011 Matt Moore-  above career average

Chiefs (OC)

2012 Matt Cassel- below career average

Bills (OC)

2018 Josh Allen- below career average
2019 Josh Allen- below career average
2020 Josh Allen- above career average
2021 Josh Allen- below career average (but by less than 1 point)

Giants (HC, play caller in 2024)

2022 Daniel Jones- above career average
2023 Daniel Jones- below career average (note DeVito had equal starts but no career avg to compare)
2024 Daniel Jones- below career average


Frankly, looking over Daboll's body of work when it comes to quarterbacks, he doesn't seem at all gifted in developing or getting them to produce.


OFFENSIVE GURU

Now, as a playcaller/offensive schemer (forgive the "from last," but ESPN doesn't assign rank numbers so I had to count)

2009 Browns-  last in yds/4th from last scoring
2010 Browns-  2nd to last yds/ 2nd from last scoring
2011 Dolphins- 22nd in yards/ 20th scoring
2012 Chiefs- 9th from last yards/ last scoring
2018 Bills-  3rd from last yards/ 3rd from last scoring
2019 Bills-  9th from last yards/ 10th from last scoring
2020 Bills- 2nd yards/ 2nd scoring
2021 Bills-  5th yards/ 3rd scoring
2022 Giants-  18th yard /16th scoring
2023 Giants- 4th from last yards/ 3rd from last scoring (note DJ only started 6 games out of 17)
2024 Giants- 10th from last yards/ 2nd from last scoring (note Daball is the play caller)


So, when you look at Daboll's work as an offensive coach, I am not sure you could say he is one of the top offensive minds in football

What is being used to determine below or above average for the QBs?

Yeah, Kellen Clemens, Derek Anderson, and Matt Moore were franchise QBs, they just needed better coaching, playcalling, and support.

Quote from: MrGap92 on November 11, 2024, 12:46:05 PMYeah, Kellen Clemens, Derek Anderson, and Matt Moore were franchise QBs, they just needed better coaching, playcalling, and support.

I find it highly instructive to observe this narrative come full circle. Just 18 months ago, @MightyGiants and I debated the positive influence Brian Daboll was thought to have on Daniel Jones' development. Now, it appears the same individual is assigning blame to Daboll for Jones' struggles, rather than considering the possibility that Jones lacked the requisite skill set from the outset.

This concept is straightforward: the success of a head coach is inherently tied to the abilities of their quarterback, yet the quarterback's success is not necessarily dependent on the head coach. I have consistently maintained this position over the years.

Quote from: kingm56 on November 11, 2024, 01:01:51 PMI find it highly instructive to observe this narrative come full circle. Just 18 months ago, @MightyGiants and I debated the positive influence Brian Daboll was thought to have on Daniel Jones' development. Now, it appears the same individual is assigning blame to Daboll for Jones' struggles, rather than considering the possibility that Jones lacked the requisite skill set from the outset.

This concept is straightforward: the success of a head coach is inherently tied to the abilities of their quarterback, yet the quarterback's success is not necessarily dependent on the head coach. I have consistently maintained this position over the years.

I can attest that you most certainly have maintained and supported that decision.

Quote from: kingm56 on November 11, 2024, 01:01:51 PMI find it highly instructive to observe this narrative come full circle. Just 18 months ago, @MightyGiants and I debated the positive influence Brian Daboll was thought to have on Daniel Jones' development. Now, it appears the same individual is assigning blame to Daboll for Jones' struggles, rather than considering the possibility that Jones lacked the requisite skill set from the outset.

This concept is straightforward: the success of a head coach is inherently tied to the abilities of their quarterback, yet the quarterback's success is not necessarily dependent on the head coach. I have consistently maintained this position over the years.

I wasnt here 18 months ago so I can't speak on that

What is interesting to me, is how much the talent, ownership, GM, and other things gets highlighted for failing DJ, yet there is no mention of such things in this study

Is this, or is this not a team game? Does a QB win games yes or no? We need to decide, it can't just be whatever whenever convenient.

So Josh Allen was below average in his 1st two years in the NFL? 

Quote from: kingm56 on November 11, 2024, 01:01:51 PMI find it highly instructive to observe this narrative come full circle. Just 18 months ago, @MightyGiants and I debated the positive influence Brian Daboll was thought to have on Daniel Jones' development. Now, it appears the same individual is assigning blame to Daboll for Jones' struggles, rather than considering the possibility that Jones lacked the requisite skill set from the outset.

This concept is straightforward: the success of a head coach is inherently tied to the abilities of their quarterback, yet the quarterback's success is not necessarily dependent on the head coach. I have consistently maintained this position over the years.

Plus, I and pretty much every knowledgeable NFL person have reached an agreement that QB performance is critically dependent on coaching/scheme, protection, and receivers.

Quote from: MrGap92 on November 11, 2024, 12:46:05 PMYeah, Kellen Clemens, Derek Anderson, and Matt Moore were franchise QBs, they just needed better coaching, playcalling, and support.

This is the sort of cherry-picking that leads to incorrect assumptions.  You ignored both Brett Farve and Josh Allen who performed worse under Dabll just as the QBs you listed

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 11, 2024, 01:46:01 PMThis is the sort of cherry-picking that leads to incorrect assumptions.  You ignored both Brett Farve and Josh Allen who performed worse under Dabll just as the QBs you listed

Come on, Josh Allen?  there were two years, his first two in the NFL, that are below his average.  Once could look at those numbers as if Daboll had a huge impact with his coaching and Allen improved tremendously with him as coach. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on November 11, 2024, 01:47:49 PMCome on, Josh Allen?  there two years, his first two in the NFL, that are below his average.  Once could look at those numbers as if Daboll had a huge impact with his coaching and Allen improved tremendously with him as coach. 

Technically Josh Allen was below his career average in 3 out of 4 of his seasons.  In today's NFL, coaches have been able to get impressive performances from young QBs like Mahomes, CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Russel Wilson, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, etc.   Usually, QBs that start off slow are on weaker teams, while Josh Allen joined a playoff team.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 11, 2024, 01:46:01 PMThis is the sort of cherry-picking that leads to incorrect assumptions.  You ignored both Brett Farve and Josh Allen who performed worse under Dabll just as the QBs you listed

Josh Allen was in his rookie contract, and gradually got better with year 3-4 being much improved

Favre was not ignored, he was in the twilight of his career. You think a QB that age, well past his prime nearing the end of his career was going to have an above average season?

Quote from: uconnjack8 on November 11, 2024, 01:47:49 PMCome on, Josh Allen?  there two years, his first two in the NFL, that are below his average.  Once could look at those numbers as if Daboll had a huge impact with his coaching and Allen improved tremendously with him as coach. 

Rich seems to be seeking justification to avoid acknowledging his misjudgment regarding Daniel Jones over the past three years. His analysis is fundamentally flawed, as it fails to consider the statistical differences in a quarterback's performance during their initial and final years (e.g., Josh Allen's early years and Brett Favre's later seasons) compared to their prime years.

Kellen Clemens that year had his second best (not my much) season, he has never played in more than 10 games.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/9635/kellen-clemens

Most seasons he threw like 5 passes, what metrics are you using? You are using a career average on a guy that saw meaningful play time in 2 of 13 seasons in the league, and you are talking about averages?

Derek Anderson played half a season in the season you studied, Quinn the other half by whatever metrics you chose, was apparently better.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/8627/derek-anderson

One year wonder, never saw alot of time playing after Cleveland, again, 13 seasons, with most having no play time, and you are using averages to make Daboll look bad

Matt Cassel? Again, 9 games that year. Many seasons with little action, less than half his career saw significant time.

This is all very interesting, considering you did mention Jones only played 6 games the one year, 2023, why was this not pointed out for the others?

Alot of context being left out.

Quote from: MrGap92 on November 11, 2024, 01:59:25 PMJosh Allen was in his rookie contract, and gradually got better with year 3-4 being much improved

Favre was not ignored, he was in the twilight of his career. You think a QB that age, well past his prime nearing the end of his career was going to have an above average season?

Josh Allen had two bad seasons in years one and two (unlike so many other good rookies drafted to solid teams). He had an excellent year three and declined significantly in year four to slightly below average.

Farve had an excellent season the next year with the Vikings, so I am not buying your "twilight of his career" claim