Big Blue Huddle

Joe Schoen says he believes this team is making progress.

Daboll says he has the right people.

The overwhelming majority of fans and pundits blame Daniel Jones for their 2-8 record


If all this is true and assuming Daniel Jones is benched and the team's primary backup stays healthy, how many wins should an improved team not handicapped by Jones win out of the last 7 games against the following opponents?

4-6 Bucs
3-6 Cowboys
3-7 Saints
7-3 Ravens
6-4 Falcons
4-6 Colts (with Richardson at QB)
7-2 Eagles

They probably win two of those games. 

Your scenario (incorrectly) assumes that a better QB is on the roster that will replace Jones.

So the answer is NONE.

Quote from: T200 on November 13, 2024, 02:22:11 PMYour scenario (incorrectly) assumes that a better QB is on the roster that will replace Jones.

So the answer is NONE.

Tim,

My assumption follows the conventional team-building philosophy of your backup QB.  In most cases, you don't expect your backup to perform as well as your starter, but rather, you expect them to win roughly half the games he starts so as not to severely hurt a team's playoff chances.   Of course, if you are unsure if your starting QB will be ready to start the season or if he will fully be ready, you should be seeking out a higher-end backup QB.

I'm thinking two also. Progress can mean different things other than W-L. Relieving Jones of his duty is progress. This past draft is proving to be a good one. Maybe it had taken Schoen some time to put in place, and operating his scouting staff/structure. He inherited a team in Cap hell. It takes time to get out of that. Maybe now Mara understands how much damage his "we did everything we could to mess this kid up" declaration did to the franchise, and he learns from it. That would be BIG progress.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 13, 2024, 02:28:16 PMTim,

My assumption follows the conventional team-building philosophy of your backup QB.  In most cases, you don't expect your backup to perform as well as your starter, but rather, you expect them to win roughly half the games he starts so as not to severely hurt a team's playoff chances.   Of course, if you are unsure if your starting QB will be ready to start the season or if he will fully be ready, you should be seeking out a higher-end backup QB.

Rich,

Your question is based on the possibilities of what we have: our current reality, not philosophies. The reality is that Lock, who will probably get the nod as he is the primary backup, is not better than Jones. Also in your scenario, Lock stays healthy. Those are the conditions you set and within those constraints, I don't see Lock winning any of the remaining games.

That would be my hope... but knowing how our team has disappointed us at almost every turn, it will probably be a repeat of last year where we get more wins than we should and can't get our QB of the future. Schoen and Daboll get fired, lather, rinse, repeat.

Quote from: files58 on November 13, 2024, 02:31:26 PMI'm thinking two also. Progress can mean different things other than W-L. Relieving Jones of his duty is progress. This past draft is proving to be a good one. Maybe it had taken Schoen some time to put in place, and operating his scouting staff/structure. He inherited a team in Cap hell. It takes time to get out of that. Maybe now Mara understands how much damage his "we did everything we could to mess this kid up" declaration did to the franchise, and he learns from it. That would be BIG progress.

The reality is the Giants only had cap issues in 2022.  By 2023 they were buyers rather than sellers in the FA market (even after signing DJ, AT, and Dex to big contracts) as they signed Okereke, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, A'Shawn Robinson, traded for Waller and his veteran contract, and a slew of smaller ticket free agents.

Quote from: T200 on November 13, 2024, 02:33:57 PMRich,

Your question is based on the possibilities of what we have: our current reality, not philosophies. The reality is that Lock, who will probably get the nod as he is the primary backup, is not better than Jones. Also in your scenario, Lock stays healthy. Those are the conditions you set and within those constraints, I don't see Lock winning any of the remaining games.

That would be my hope... but knowing how our team has disappointed us at almost every turn, it will probably be a repeat of last year where we get more wins than we should and can't get our QB of the future. Schoen and Daboll get fired, lather, rinse, repeat.

Tim,

One benefit of benching Daniel Jones is he can no longer be used as a scapegoat for all of the team's issues.  I am trying to establish baseline expectations based on removing the "main culprit" from the equation and what the expectations should be in terms of wins against a pretty weak last 7 games.

The broken QB is out of the equation.  There should be some expectations after nearly 3 years.  Especially if we are going to assign the lion's share of the blame for the 2-8 record to Daniel Jones.

I honestly have no idea how many they will win.  They could lose the rest of their games and I wouldn't be surprised at all.  They could win 3 or 4 of those games and I wouldn't be surprised either. 

Here is how I feel about each game right now.  Although, things change with injuries and who is in contention.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 13, 2024, 02:06:40 PM4-6 Bucs  unlikely but wouldn't shock me (they don't have their top 2 WRs
3-6 Cowboys  50/50 shot IMO.  Both teams are bad and playing backup QBs
3-7 Saints  50/50 on this one as well.  Traded their best CB before the deadline.
7-3 Ravens  Will be shocked if they win this one
6-4 Falcons  More unlikely than the Bucs
4-6 Colts (with Richardson at QB) 50/50
7-2 Eagles If the playoff seatings are set, its 50/50

I think the bigger question isn't how many they will win but how many Schoen and Daboll should win now that they are not handicapped by Daniel Jones.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 13, 2024, 02:46:59 PMTim,

One benefit of benching Daniel Jones is he can no longer be used as a scapegoat for all of the team's issues.  I am trying to establish baseline expectations based on removing the "main culprit" from the equation and what the expectations should be in terms of wins against a pretty weak last 7 games.

The broken QB is out of the equation.  There should be some expectations after nearly 3 years.  Especially if we are going to assign the lion's share of the blame for the 2-8 record to Daniel Jones.

Rich,

I was simply answering the question you posed:

Quotehow many wins

Maybe they get one versus the Cowboys or Colts (though the latter has a strong rushing attack that will likely give the Giants problems). But I fully expect the Giants to continue to struggle because they still won't be rostering a plus-player at QB.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 13, 2024, 02:55:28 PMI think the bigger question isn't how many they will win but how many Schoen and Daboll should win now that they are not handicapped by Daniel Jones.

No matter if Jones plays or not they are still handicapped by him. His contract made it so that we couldn't get an adequate backup, us resigning him handicapped our future. So whether he plays or not the ghost of Daniel Jones lingers everywhere.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 13, 2024, 03:09:30 PMNo matter if Jones plays or not they are still handicapped by him. His contract made it so that we couldn't get an adequate backup, us resigning him handicapped our future. So whether he plays or not the ghost of Daniel Jones lingers everywhere.

A 40 million-dollar-a-year contract shouldn't have prevented the team from signing a proper backup.  The Steelers signed Russell (who visited with the Giants) for just $1.2 million, for example.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 13, 2024, 03:12:19 PMA 40 million-dollar-a-year contract shouldn't have prevented the team from signing a proper backup.  The Steelers signed Russell (who visited with the Giants) for just $1.2 million, for example.

But we watched Hard Knocks and know that it did, they were priced out of Tyrod and had to go with a cheaper alternative.