Big Blue Huddle

Recently, I heard Todd McShay say if you want a quarterback with an elite ceiling, they need to have either elite arm talent or elite running ability (to scare defenses).  Otherwise, you are talking a ceiling like Geno Smith or maybe Joe Burrow.

I thought there was some good wisdom in that.

I would add a third element to the FBI field. Intelligence, as I use it here, goes beyond the usual. What I am talking about is reading opposing defenses, processing quickly, and having good pocket awareness and calmness under pressure (along with not making bone-headed mistakes).

In terms of QB prospects, I am not discounting the importance of development and QB support, but I believe those are the three key elements that will help QB succeed.

I will throw in a fourth element:  Intangibles. However, I believe that a lack of good intangibles will sink a QB, but being elite in the intangibles doesn't contribute significantly to success.  Intangibles include size, work ethic, leadership, durability, and off-the-field issues.

To circle back, if you draft a QB with elite talent in one of the three areas, they are more likely to achieve success and reach the elite level.  Obviously, the more areas, the better.   Of course, the other two areas can't be deficits.   I think you can also get a pretty good NFL QB if they are very good (just short of elite) in all three areas.

That is the lens I am viewing this QB class.  I will add that I do expect traits to produce on the field; I can't overlook (but it's not a huge factor) a QB's college production.

Based on that lens prospects that intrigue me:

Ward-  Near elite arm and pretty good in the other areas

Milroe-  Elite legs, strong arm, needs work on the mental.

Allar (assuming he declares)-  Elite arm and strong legs


What do you look for when you are evaluating QB prospects?  What's important? What are you willing to give up?

I will add a personal note-  I used to consider the intangibles as a 4th pillar equal to the others.  Having witnessed Webb and Jones both struggle despite being elite in the intangibles department, I have adjusted my view to consider intangibles something that can sink a QB but not something a QB can ride to success in the NFL

I strongly believe the mental processing and Football intelligence is the number one trait for success in this league. If you look at some of the most successful QB's in the last 20 years, Brady, Rodgers and Eli, all had that skill set. Of course a QB has to be able to make all the throws but he doesn't need an elite arm, although a strong arm can get a pass into tight windows and Josh Allen certainly partially thrives because of it.

But getting back to the mental aspect, a QB coming out of college will have to work on some aspect of his game. Often it's the mechanics of proper set, balance and throwing motion results in timing and accuracy. However an ability to have good pocket awareness and agility to move within the pocket is the second aspect I look for with fluid mechanics.

With the exotic Defensive schemes being deployed, a QB has to be able to understand the play and the role each player has in it, read the coverage Pre-Snap, move players or audible when necessary, know which of the three reads of the play have no chance, and then get the pass off in anticipation with accuracy in under two seconds in most cases.

The third is work ethic. He has to put the time in every day and every week for every game.

Athleticism can get a QB just so far. Sometimes they will even make a career out of it. It's important but I'll take the mental part first. Although to get to this level, most QBs have both, but not enough of the mental. This is why Purdy has success and the Derek Carr's struggle.

Quote from: Ed Vette on November 17, 2024, 10:15:11 AMI strongly believe the mental processing and Football intelligence is the number one trait for success in this league. If you look at some of the most successful QB's in the last 20 years, Brady, Rodgers and Eli, all had that skill set. Of course a QB has to be able to make all the throws but he doesn't need an elite arm, although a strong arm can get a pass into tight windows and Josh Allen certainly partially thrives because of it.

But getting back to the mental aspect, a QB coming out of college will have to work on some aspect of his game. Often it's the mechanics of proper set, balance and throwing motion results in timing and accuracy. However an ability to have good pocket awareness and agility to move within the pocket is the second aspect I look for with fluid mechanics.

With the exotic Defensive schemes being deployed, a QB has to be able to understand the play and the role each player has in it, read the coverage Pre-Snap, move players or audible when necessary, know which of the three reads of the play have no chance, and then get the pass off in anticipation with accuracy in under two seconds in most cases.

The third is work ethic. He has to put the time in every day and every week for every game.

Athleticism can get a QB just so far. Sometimes they will even make a career out of it. It's important but I'll take the mental part first. Although to get to this level, most QBs have both, but not enough of the mental. This is why Purdy has success and the Derek Carr's struggle.

I'm no Devito fanatic. Sills - yes, I thought he had something based on what I saw in preseason but I was sadly mistaken. But as far as processing and intangibles, it was clear as day to me that Devito (when he made mistakes) was able to LITERALLY "learn on the fly" in real time as he would correct the issue the next series. For example, we saw him "learn" to get rid of the ball throwing it away after taking the sack, or slide before getting hit, or hit on the soft touch oss after throwing it too hard the play before as adrenaline was high.

I think these intangibles or processing or whatever we wanna call it are noticeable- the "it" factor. Cousins in the 2 minute drill is the perfect example - whether he is successful or not, his "it" factor pops on the screen.

In recent years I have put more emphasis on the mental/intangible stuff than the physical. And as an amateur armchair scout, I readily admit that that stuff is harder to evaluate, especially when these college QBs don't all face an even playing field of competition, nor do they have an even playing field of talent around them.

Mac Jones put up ridiculous numbers and looked good in a lot of games, but he was playing behind an absolute brick wall of an O line and throwing to Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and John Metchie.

Then again Joe Burrow had a great situation around him too and clearly still turned out to be good.

To me, processing speed, field vision, pre-snap diagnostic ability, pocket awareness, in-pocket mobility, two minute drill ability, etc are all things that are crucial to being great in the NFL and also things that seem hard to fix if you're bad at them.

The physical stuff no doubt matters. It's clearly an advantage to have a big arm, but I don't think it's a prerequisite.

I'd also argue that as important as accuracy is, accuracy can be improved.

Physical build matters. Anyone who says it doesn't is in denial. Obviously, that does not mean that a QB Bryce Young's size can't succeed in the NFL, as we all know that's not true. But the odds of success for a QB his size are lower than they are for a QB Trevor Lawrence's size. And I deliberately picked Trevor Lawrence in this example to illuminate that being that size alone and being hyped up the way he was doesn't guarantee a thing.

What am I willing to give up? I'd say running ability comes to mind. While being a good runner is certainly better than being a bad runner, I think pocket mobility matters a lot more than outright running ability.

These are the first things I look at before deciding if I need to do a deeper dive on the prospect in order of importance. 

1. Do they elevate the talent around them

For example Eli had really pedestrian teams around him at Ole Miss but put that program on his shoulders willing that team.

2. Does the prospect get better year on year in college. 

3. The type of offense ie does the Qb have full command of the offense, and what he's asked to do within it.

4. Does the prospect mainly throw to their hot reads/1st read, or do the use the full field to their advantage?

Most college offenses only use half the field on any given play. If the coaches let the Qb use the full field then they are in full control of the offense and you know they can absorb the information being given.

And number 5 is usually measurable as that can disqualify the best of the rest.

I look at those 5 things before I really start with a deep dive.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 17, 2024, 08:35:19 AMRecently, I heard Todd McShay say if you want a quarterback with an elite ceiling, they need to have either elite arm talent or elite running ability (to scare defenses).  Otherwise, you are talking a ceiling like Geno Smith or maybe Joe Burrow.

I thought there was some good wisdom in that.

I would add a third element to the FBI field. Intelligence, as I use it here, goes beyond the usual. What I am talking about is reading opposing defenses, processing quickly, and having good pocket awareness and calmness under pressure (along with not making bone-headed mistakes).

In terms of QB prospects, I am not discounting the importance of development and QB support, but I believe those are the three key elements that will help QB succeed.

I will throw in a fourth element:  Intangibles. However, I believe that a lack of good intangibles will sink a QB, but being elite in the intangibles doesn't contribute significantly to success.  Intangibles include size, work ethic, leadership, durability, and off-the-field issues.

To circle back, if you draft a QB with elite talent in one of the three areas, they are more likely to achieve success and reach the elite level.  Obviously, the more areas, the better.   Of course, the other two areas can't be deficits.   I think you can also get a pretty good NFL QB if they are very good (just short of elite) in all three areas.

That is the lens I am viewing this QB class.  I will add that I do expect traits to produce on the field; I can't overlook (but it's not a huge factor) a QB's college production.

Based on that lens prospects that intrigue me:

Ward-  Near elite arm and pretty good in the other areas

Milroe-  Elite legs, strong arm, needs work on the mental.

Allar (assuming he declares)-  Elite arm and strong legs


What do you look for when you are evaluating QB prospects?  What's important? What are you willing to give up?

Starting to think Allar might not declare and wait until 2026 draft. I really like the kid.

McShay forgot to say, "elite field vision, pocket awareness and mental processing speed to understand quickly what D is doing and confidence.

That is it for a QB.

I will add another important trait, but I am not sure where it fits within the framework I laid out, and that is consistency. 

How a QB fares in the 2 minute drill is a big one.

Quote from: Trench on November 18, 2024, 08:52:10 AMHow a QB fares in the 2 minute drill is a big one.

And in Primtetime & Divisional games.

Quote from: Trench on November 18, 2024, 08:52:10 AMHow a QB fares in the 2 minute drill is a big one.

It's also worth seeing how they play in the red zone and third down.   In those two situations, things get tougher for the QB.

How Herbert played last night. He was brilliant in the clutch. Ditto for Josh Allen.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 18, 2024, 09:05:26 AMIt's also worth seeing how they play in the red zone and third down.   In those two situations, things get tougher for the QB.

I agree. Red zone was a particularly tough area for Jones. As we look back there were so many red flags which prove to me this decision should've been made much sooner.

Without getting into the physical QB autopsy of Jones career, the signs were there:

- Red Zone success
- TDs (especially at home)
- 2 minute drill at half
- 2 minute drill at end of game
- 3rd down success
- Prime time record
- Lack of emotion most of the time
- Injury history

You ultimately need one that can consistently win you division games.

Jones went 8-15-1 in the East.