Big Blue Huddle

I have wondered about this myself.  Beyond confidence issues, I wonder if DJ's second neck injury permanently (or at least for more than a year) affected his throwing.  The DJ I saw in training camp this offseason did not look like the one I saw just the year prior in terms of his ability to throw the football accurately.   I don't like to say it was an injury without proof, but when you move out of the pocket and throw the ball on the run, it becomes more about arm strength as you can count the normal body mechanics to help.

https://x.com/JordanRaanan/status/1859061593708826625

I'll take a shot at answering Ranaan's question.

Jones is not playing the game like it's second-nature to him... because it's not.

Mahomes, for one, is "at home" on the run. Jones never will be.

That quality is almost essential today, unless your offense has some other aspect that is special (like a superior OL, a fearsome running attack, or a group of receivers who constantly get open). Otherwise, you've got to play a lot a "playground" ball, and Jones is not capable of it.

Long story short, it has nothing to do with Jones' neck. He's a pocket QB on a team that's not good enough to allow him to be himself.

Bob

PS. Even on a team with great offensive personnel, IMO, he would still be nothing more than slightly-above-average. Over his career, his most consistent quality has been missing too many "easy" throws and not getting the most out of his limited opportunities.

Quote from: Bob In PA on November 22, 2024, 09:03:06 AMI'll take a shot at answering Ranaan's question.

Jones is not playing the game like it's second-nature to him... because it's not.

Mahomes, for one, is "at home" on the run. Jones never will be.

That quality is almost essential today, unless your offense has some other aspect that is special (like a superior OL, a fearsome running attack, or a group of receivers who constantly get open). Otherwise, you've got to play a lot a "playground" ball, and Jones is not capable of it.

Long story short, it has nothing to do with Jones' neck. He's a pocket QB on a team that's not good enough to allow him to be himself.

Bob

PS. Even on a team with great offensive personnel, IMO, he would still be nothing more than slightly-above-average. Over his career, his most consistent quality has been missing too many "easy" throws and not getting the most out of his limited opportunities.

Bob,

I see what you're saying.  What I still don't understand/explain is why he was so much better at it in 2022 than he was in 2024

It was designed Roll Outs to an intended High-Low, which he almost always threw low. He was able to set and throw. DJ on the run, has always been an inaccurate thrower off balance. He's no Wilson, Mahomes or Bo Nix.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 22, 2024, 09:12:48 AMBob,

I see what you're saying.  What I still don't understand/explain is why he was so much better at it in 2022 than he was in 2024

Is it possible he overachieved in 2022?

Quote from: T200 on November 22, 2024, 09:18:51 AMIs it possible he overachieved in 2022?

In 2022, we are talking about a sample size of 65 throws.  I think that is enough to eliminate most statistical anomalies.  As such, I don't think it's possible, by definition, to overachieve.  Either you are capable of producing at that level, or you're not.

The other thing is by taking just throws outside the pocket you are eliminating some of the variables.  The only two remaining variables would be deliberate throws outside the pocket (designed rollouts) vs scrambling out of the pocket.   On scrambles there is the variable of the receivers recognizing their QB is scrambling and breaking back to the QB to try and get open quickly (to give their QB a quick target to get rid of the ball).

Like most of you, I have seen a lot of football over the decades.  I have seen rookie QBs shine and then falter as NFL got tape on them.  I haven't seen QB, have a significantly better season, followed by consecutive seasons of getting worse.  That's a bit of a rarity. 

Quote from: T200 on November 22, 2024, 09:18:51 AMIs it possible he overachieved in 2022?

Those designed roll outs cut down the field to one or two reads and a checkdown. This year the training wheels came off as they did in 2023.

Quote from: Ed Vette on November 22, 2024, 09:29:33 AMThose designed roll outs cut down the field to one or two reads and a checkdown. This year the training wheels came off as they did in 2023.

So are you saying that Daboll changed the offense to one that DJ wouldn't be as successful in?  I understand "the training wheels came off" to mean Daboll changed the offensive scheme.  Based on the results, it's safe to say Daboll changed the scheme, causing his QB to perform worse (and, by extension, the team).

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 22, 2024, 09:36:43 AMSo are you saying that Daboll changed the offense to one that DJ wouldn't be as successful in?  I understand "the training wheels came off" to mean Daboll changed the offensive scheme.  Based on the results, it's safe to say Daboll changed the scheme, causing his QB to perform worse (and, by extension, the team).

If you so choose to frame it that way. Have you thought about why he would change the scheme from a basic one to a more extensive and dynamic one?

Quote from: T200 on November 22, 2024, 09:46:06 AMIf you so choose to frame it that way. Have you thought about why he would change the scheme from a basic one to a more extensive and dynamic one?

Outside of speculating with little information, I can't answer why Daboll changed his scheme to one that resulted in a less successful offense.   It's possible he didn't think the successful system was sustainable (or had a less-than-ideal ceiling), and he didn't know another alternative that would be successful.  It could be what Mike Lombardi spoke about in his last podcast (not about the Giants but the NFL in general) that the assumption that teams are all about winning isn't always true.  Rather people in power want to win their way.  It's possible that DJ isn't the same QB either physically or mentally (as Bob Papa and Carl Banks suggested).  Like most NFL organizations, short of a major leak, the information to properly answer the question is not usually shared by the team.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 22, 2024, 09:52:37 AMOutside of speculating with little information, I can't answer why Daboll changed his scheme to one that resulted in a less successful offense.   It's possible he didn't think the successful system was sustainable (or had a less-than-ideal ceiling), and he didn't know another alternative that would be successful.  It could be what Mike Lombardi spoke about in his last podcast (not about the Giants but the NFL in general) that the assumption that teams are all about winning isn't always true.  Rather people in power want to win their way.  It's possible that DJ isn't the same QB either physically or mentally (as Bob Papa and Carl Banks suggested).  Like most NFL organizations, short of a major leak, the information to properly answer the question is not usually shared by the team.

I think you hit the nail on the head. As you mentioned in an earlier post, we've watched decades of football. Such a basic offense has a short shelf life in the NFL. Once teams figure it out, it's a wrap. And it really didn't take long. The Giants had the 2nd-most one-score victories that season, behind Minnesota. They had favorable bounces that could have easily resulted in a loss instead of a win.

It was imperative to open the playbook and keep defenses guessing. That's what Daboll did. We saw the results of an expanded offense with a QB who couldn't expand his game accordingly.

So yes, you're technically correct in that Daboll changed the offense and the end result was not successful. But it can't be distilled to that. There's a reason for the failure and it was poor execution by the main driver of that offense.

Quote from: T200 on November 22, 2024, 10:02:54 AMI think you hit the nail on the head. As you mentioned in an earlier post, we've watched decades of football. Such a basic offense has a short shelf life in the NFL. Once teams figure it out, it's a wrap. And it really didn't take long. The Giants had the 2nd-most one-score victories that season, behind Minnesota. They had favorable bounces that could have easily resulted in a loss instead of a win.

It was imperative to open the playbook and keep defenses guessing. That's what Daboll did. We saw the results of an expanded offense with a QB who couldn't expand his game accordingly.

So yes, you're technically correct in that Daboll changed the offense and the end result was not successful. But it can't be distilled to that. There's a reason for the failure and it was poor execution by the main driver of that offense.

Tim,

I appreciate that you believe that that Daboll could not create counters for the original system that still played to DJ's strengths.   As I said, I don't think we have enough information to say which scenario is correct with any certainty.  I guess we will have to disagree on that.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 22, 2024, 10:07:41 AMTim,

I appreciate that you believe that that Daboll could not create counters for the original system that still played to DJ's strengths.   As I said, I don't think we have enough information to say which scenario is correct with any certainty.  I guess we will have to disagree on that.

Completely not what I said.

I do agree to disagree. 

Quote from: T200 on November 22, 2024, 10:02:54 AMI think you hit the nail on the head. As you mentioned in an earlier post, we've watched decades of football. Such a basic offense has a short shelf life in the NFL. Once teams figure it out, it's a wrap. And it really didn't take long. The Giants had the 2nd-most one-score victories that season, behind Minnesota. They had favorable bounces that could have easily resulted in a loss instead of a win.

It was imperative to open the playbook and keep defenses guessing. That's what Daboll did. We saw the results of an expanded offense with a QB who couldn't expand his game accordingly.

So yes, you're technically correct in that Daboll changed the offense and the end result was not successful. But it can't be distilled to that. There's a reason for the failure and it was poor execution by the main driver of that offense.

Plus there's no Barkley, who was a real weapon in the 2022 offense.

Furthermore, we heard Schoen say "we are not paying a QB 40 mil to hand it off".

Both are undoubtedly a factor in the change of offensive scheme.

Quote from: T200 on November 22, 2024, 10:09:23 AMCompletely not what I said.

I do agree to disagree. 

Tim,

I am confused.  If we are saying the reason for DJ's decline is that the offensive system changed and the DJ couldn't play as well in the new system, there exists only two possibilities. 

1) Daboll couldn't create changes in the successful 2022 system that provided the needed changes while still being a system DJ did well in

2) Daboll could create the needed changes that played to DJ's strengths, but Daboll decided not to go that route

If I didn't understand what you said, what which option (of the two provided) are you choosing?