Big Blue Huddle

https://mikefarrellsports.com/college/breaking-is-jaxson-dart-a-better-nfl-prospect-than-cam-ward-and-shedeur-sanders

I've seen a ton of reports coming out that multiple NFL teams have Jaxson Dart as their number 1 Qb before the Senior Bowl.

The youngest qb in this draft at 21 yrs old with 4 years of starting experience with 1 year at USC and 3 years at Ole Miss. Got significantly better year on year with a better Cmp%, yards, and Tds each year he played. In scouting qbs, 3+ years starting experience, plus seeing significant process year on year are huge in my opinion.

2024 stats 4276 yards 29 tds 6 int 648 rushing yards 3 tds with a 69% cmpl % in the SEC vs Sanders (Big12) Ward (ACC)

Dart played most of the season without his top talent at most positions.
#1 Wr only played half the games and still had 1,000 yards
#2 Wr missed multiple games
#1 TE missed multiple games
#1 RB missed all but 1 game
#2 RB missed half the season
Only had the same Oline for 2 games as he had 5+ injuries at the Oline position.

Stats vs other qbs in this class
Total yards per game 1st
Passing yards per game 2nd
Rushing yards per game 2nd
Passer rating 1st
Td to Int ratio 2nd
Pff passer grade 1st
Ints per attempt 1st
Average target distance 1st
Big time throw per game (tight window throws)1st
Big time Throw vs Turnover Worthy Play Differential: 1st (highest)
Turnover Worthy Play Rate 3rd
Time To Throw 4th
Yards Per Attempt 1st

QB Allowed Pressure Rate 1st
Pressure to Sack 5th
Intermediate Completion % 1st
Middle Field Completion % 1st

Fast facts-

His offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss Jr (31 yrs old) is a prodigy having coached since he was 20 yrs old at the college level. His dad was the oc for the patriots and both have raved about Darts ability in the pocket.

Dart opted into the bowl Game even though it was only the gator bowl and convinced 9 guys, most with really high draft grades to play one last time together when all could have opted out to train for the combine.

Sanders and Ward threw the ball 81 and 54 more times than Dart

With his RB, TE, and top 2 Wrs out Darts #3 Wr had 456 yards and 4 tds vs Arkansas.

All that to say don't be surprised if he leaps up draft boards with a good showing at the senior bowl. A lot of mock are projecting him in the teens now.

Advanced metrics from ab260 on reddit**

Surprised? No
I'm expecting it.

Quote from: Ed Vette on January 14, 2025, 09:35:37 PMSurprised? No
I'm expecting it.

It was a weird season, he easily led the SEC in Qb play and it wasn't close. He was the leading qb in almost every major stat for the majority of the season and yet he never got mentioned. Sanders, Ward, Ewers, Arch, and so many others got play every week on college GameDay and everywhere else. Its the first season in forever that I can remember were the SECs best qb wasn't plastered everywhere and a talking point every week. Maybe it's because he played at Ole Miss even though they were in the top8 for the majority of the year.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 14, 2025, 09:52:44 PMIt was a weird season, he easily led the SEC in Qb play and it wasn't close. He was the leading qb in almost every major stat for the majority of the season and yet he never got mentioned. Sanders, Ward, Ewers, Arch, and so many others got play every week on college GameDay and everywhere else. Its the first season in forever that I can remember were the SECs best qb wasn't plastered everywhere and a talking point every week. Maybe it's because he played at Ole Miss even though they were in the top8 for the majority of the year.

We've been discussing him here for months. He's not the only second tier who will move up imo, as you know.

Quote from: Ed Vette on January 14, 2025, 09:56:08 PMWe've been discussing him here for months. He's not the only second tier who will move up imo, as you know.

Oh I know, I was referring to the main stream media.

Quote from: Ed Vette on January 14, 2025, 09:35:37 PMSurprised? No
I'm expecting it.

Ed: I don't know what you mean by "I'm expecting it" but just in case it involves the issue we have discussed a few times privately... Dart is a Giants type of pick, for more than one reason. Bob

How does Darts arm strength rate?

Quote from: uconnjack8 on January 15, 2025, 07:39:00 AMHow does Darts arm strength rate?

From the reports I have read, his arm is "adequate."     

I hadn't heard of the Twitter user-  NFL Rookie Watch   Being an NFL insider

I scrolled through their rather busy feed.  I didn't get to November before I found two community notes disputing the claims made by them.   I will also say that their reports sound different than the reports I usually hear from true insiders.

I suggest taking the reports from this source with a grain of salt.  The claims may be true, or they may not.

If everyone is raving him then why do several forum poster just assume he will be there for us at the top of the 3rd round?

Quote from: TDToomer on January 15, 2025, 11:44:42 AMIf everyone is raving him then why do several forum poster just assume he will be there for us at the top of the 3rd round?

Donny,

This is a good point that applies to any QB targetted outside of the third overall pick (and even then the prospect needs to fall).  If NYG plans on drafting a QB day 2 (or even day 3) there better be multiple options.   As you said, there is no assurance that a targeted player for even high in the second round will be there.

I saw many mock drafts last year where NYG could have drafted either Nix or Penix in round two (or the bottom of round one).  We saw how things were in reality.   You don't want to end up like the Raiders who assumed Penix would fall to them, and when Atlanta surprised, they were caught flat-footed and forced to ride the season with Gardner Minshew.

Another QB who was a surprise high pick was Anthony Richardson picked 4th overall just 2 seasons ago.

Quote from: TDToomer on January 15, 2025, 11:44:42 AMIf everyone is raving him then why do several forum poster just assume he will be there for us at the top of the 3rd round?

Because towards the end of the season many hadn't seen Dart play. As I was discussing with Ed above, he was an unknown to a lot so that's why there's a drastic upswing in his draft stock.

Quote from: MightyGiants on January 15, 2025, 08:54:00 AMI hadn't heard of the Twitter user-  NFL Rookie Watch   Being an NFL insider

I scrolled through their rather busy feed.  I didn't get to November before I found two community notes disputing the claims made by them.   I will also say that their reports sound different than the reports I usually hear from true insiders.

I suggest taking the reports from this source with a grain of salt.  The claims may be true, or they may not.

I heard it in multiple spots so I'm not aware of rookie watch but most updated mocks have him in the mid to late first so it makes sense that at least a few teams would like him over others. I was looking at him vs previous 1st rd qbs and I like him more than Kenny pickett, Jordan Love and several other 1st rd guys.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on January 15, 2025, 01:37:26 PMI heard it in multiple spots so I'm not aware of rookie watch but most updated mocks have him in the mid to late first so it makes sense that at least a few teams would like him over others. I was looking at him vs previous 1st rd qbs and I like him more than Kenny pickett, Jordan Love and several other 1st rd guys.

Jess,

I am intrigued by Dart.  From an analytics/stats perspective, the last QB who put up numbers like his was Jayden Daniels.   I appreciate you may be a system QB (old school term, you don't hear much of these days), but I am watchful and hopeful that as the draft process progresses, he continues to rise up the board as you suggest.

I will confess that the mocks I have seen haven't had him as high as the mocks you have seen.   That's not to say he won't prove worthy of a high selection when all is said and done.

Quote from: MightyGiants on January 15, 2025, 01:51:37 PMJess,

I am intrigued by Dart.  From an analytics/stats perspective, the last QB who put up numbers like his was Jayden Daniels.   I appreciate you may be a system QB (old school term, you don't hear much of these days), but I am watchful and hopeful that as the draft process progresses, he continues to rise up the board as you suggest.

I will confess that the mocks I have seen haven't had him as high as the mocks you have seen.   That's not to say he won't prove worthy of a high selection when all is said and done.

Ì don't think he's that much of a system Qb. Hear me out, his freshman year he played under Graham Harrell who runs Kliff Kingsbury/Mike Leachs Air raid the same system that Mahomes came out of so there is tape there of him running a different offense. Kiffins offense is actually really complex, if you put a name on it then it would likely be a version of the Veer and shoot made popular by Art Briles. Kiffin learned under Gruden with those elite Tampa teams of the early 2000s before learning under Pete Carroll and Norm Chow at USC who was mentored by Lavell Edwards who doesn't get enough credit for the passing innovations he had. Once Chow left for the NFL kiffin and Sarkisian the Texas HC took over the offense at USC which led to the Leinart, Bush Era. He used pro style concepts then and then took those concepts to Alabama were he used them there. Yes it's a high powered offense, but all the misdirect, motion, and Rpo's that he uses is what the NFL is adopting now to combat the cover 2. Despite people thinking he can't do intermediate, he had the best intermediate grade in the country. He's not targeting the middle to start his progression, so obviously he's making some to get back to the middle. Is he perfect, absolutely not but there is talent there.

Why wasn't Jayden Daniels considered a system Qb we he came out last year? Denbrock the LSU OC last year is actually the Oc at Notre Dame now and has run the same 11 personnel RPO offense for years making qbs look significantly better than they are. I mean he made Deshon Kizer, and Desmond Riddler look elite and got them drafted when the talent wasn't there but there was no mention of that last year around Daniels. Kiffin however gets no credit and gets Matt Corral held against him when it wasn't Corrals game that failed, he had a mental breakdown. Kiffin turned a Safey at Alabama into a Qb and won 2 back to back national championships with the kid. Heupel the Tennessee head coach basically runs a more simplified version of kiffins offense and people weren't screaming that Hendon Hooker was a system Qb, or that Lamaleava the kid playing there now who's expected to be a 1st rd pick is a system qb. I think that people write Dart off as a system qb which is a convinent way to not look deeper into him. Even Kalen Dabeor ran a version of kiffins offense for Milroe this year but he's not a system qb.