2017 CAP and Team Evaluation - 9/4 Update

[GordonG]

9/4/17 Update  With the signing of Ross Cockrell and Herzlich going on IR along with some contractual updates received by Sportac and Over The Cap, the Giants now have approximately 3.2mm in CAP space.  At this point I do not see any carryover of CAP space going into 2018.  The Giants still have approximately 30mm  in 2018 CAP space with the ability to increase it further. 

8/17 Update:  Giants CAP increased to 8.5mm as a result of J.T Thomas taking a big cut in salary. An additional 1mm would be saved if he does not make the 53 man roster.  I am thinking that the Giants will end up with a carryover of $4-5mm.  It is interesting to me that the above salary cut was not done during free agency.  I suspect that the Giants did not push the issue because there wasn't an opportunity to sign another UFA that they were interested in. END OF UPDATE

As some of you know, I have been doing a team CAP analysis for more years than I care to admit.  Well actually it has been about 20 years going back to when George Young was clueless about how to manage the CAP. As a result of the recent changes that scout.com made. the unfortunate indirect consequence is that BBWC lost its identity completely. Without the administrative responsibilities associated with BBWC, I will have the time to spend here at BBH.

Rich and Ed have asked me to post my 2017 CAP and team analysis here at BBH.  Currently the Giants have approximately 5.7mm in CAP space.  This is enough to enable them to do any desirable late signings as well as make CAP moves during the season.  The only remaining player cut that makes sense from strictly a CAP point of view is J.T. Thomas.  If he does not make the 53 man roster, 3mm would be saved in 2017 CAP space and there would be 1mm dead money generated in 2018.  Regardless, the maximum amount of carryover CAP space for 2018 will likely be in the neighborhood of 3mm.

Currently. the Giants have approximately 23mm in 2018 CAP space.  That is based on 160mm in signed contracts and a 2018 CAP estimate of 183mm.  The Giants made an important move by accepting OBJ's 5th year option.  OBJ will be making 8.4mm in 2018.  It would not surprise me if the Giants eventually extend his contract in such a manner that would pay him more in 2018 but less in 2019 when he will likely be making top WR money.  Eli's CAP peaks at 23mm in 2019 which is very likely his last year as a Giant.

Out of curiosity, I looked at the contracts for Eli. Vernon, JPP, Harrison and Jenkins to see what the CAP impact would be if any of them had a career ending injury.  I am pleased to report that the vast majority of their compensation is in the form of salary. After the 2018 season, the Giants would gain enough CAP room to be active in free agency if Vernon, JPP, Harrison or Jenkins were to have a career ending injury.  In addition, the Giants would be in a good position to renegotiate any of these contracts if performance became an issue.

The key UFAs that the Giants will have to deal with in 2018 are Pugh, Richburg, and Kennard.  I think the Giants will find a way to sign all three but that will cause them to not be very active in free agency.  With another strong draft in 2018, that would not be a problem.  What we may be about to see in the coming years are good drafts by the Giants paying off in terms of a reduced reliance on bringing in big ticket UFAs.

I continue to think that signing JPP for what amounts to a 29mm guarantee is a mistake.  Of course I hope I am wrong and that he stays healthy for the entire 2017 season and into the playoffs.  The Giants saved approximately 9mm in 2017 CAP space.  The contract is essentially a 3 year contract.  JPP's CAP numbers for 2018 and 2019 are 17.5mm and 19.5mm respectively.  At the end of 3 years JPP will have earned 49.5mm. The 4th year salary for JPP is 12.5mm with dead money being 5mm and a CAP number of 17,5mm.  He will be 32.  I hope he is doing so well that he will be worth more than 12.5mm.  If not, the 4th year will be renegotiated or he will be cut.  There is also the distinct possibility that he would retire depending on how his health holds up.  Regardless, it is critical that he is healthy for the next three years or else this contract was a huge mistake.  One caveat: A Super Bowl win in the coming season makes the contract well worthwhile regardless of what happens afterwards.  I remain thoroughly convinced that defense wins championships.  I can not imagine JPP not playing a huge role in a Super Bowl win this coming season.

That said, it would be wonderful to see Romeo Okwara develop into a complete DE that would be able to be a back up to Vernon and JPP and be that third pass rusher on obvious passing plays.  Whether it is Okwara or someone else, I am thinking that a third DE with excellent pass rushing skills is essential for the Giants to go deep into the playoffs. 

Manning, Vernon, Jenkins, Harrison, DRC and Pugh account for 85.8mm (50.5%) of the 169.8mm total cap space.  Due to the amount of dead money that would be generated, reducing the cap impact of any of the above mentioned players is not an option until after 2018.

Manning will be making 13mm in salary and accounts for 19mm in 2017 cap space.  If he does not have an outstanding season in 2017, I can envision that his roster bonus of 5mm in 2018 becoming a point of contention.  It is interesting to note that his salary decreases 3mm in 2018 but his cap goes up 3mm (19-22mm) in 2018.  In 2018 cutting him would generated 9mm in cap space savings but would also generate 12mm in 2019 dead money. Negotiating leverage switches from Eli to the Giants in 2019 which is the last year of his contract.

[MightyGiants]

Thanks for this great breakdown Gordon.   It really does show the where the team is out now and in the near future.   

[Bob In PA]

Gordon: Wish I was as up on this stuff as you are.  Great job, and thanks for posting.  Bob

[jimv]

THANKS, Gordon!  I hope you stay on as consistent poster.

[Ed Vette]

Thanks Gordon, great review of the big picture. Welcome aboard. I'm very happy you're here. You're added contributions will certainly add to enhance our Group.


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[gregf]

Outstanding breakdown. Thanks so much!

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[Mr. Matt]

Very informative. Thanks.

[Jaime]

Good stuff Gordon! I concur wholeheartedly with your view of jpp's contract. The guy has been a train wreck healthwise and now we throw a boatload of Dead Presidents at him? I don't get it?
the odds of him staying healthy are Slim.
Eli's contract is no brain storm either for a different reason as u point out.
Keep posting Bro!

[Shoelessjoe]

Gordon, welcome aboard.  For those of us who didn't know Gordon from BBWC he is a great Giant fan, a class act and will be a great addition to this board.

Just a few questions on the cap. Am I right to get out of your post that the cap that is not used in say 2017 it can be carried over to the next year and that the carry over could be $3m for 2018? Would you know what the Giants gained or lost when JPP was not signed to a contract but had the franchise tag and what kind of an affect it had on that year and the subsequent year?

[GordonG]

Yes, I am estimating that there will be a carryover of 3 mil from 2017 to 2018.  Any CAP leftover from one year can be carryover to the next year.

Here is what I remember from the whole JPP episode:

1. The franchise tag was around 15 mil.
2.  JPP came back for part of that season and earned around 8 mil for a 7 mil savings and CAP carryover.
3.  The carryover played a significant part in the Giants being so active in free agency in 2016.  If I remember correctly, the Giants had 20 mil in CAP space of which 11 mil was carryover. So the accident contributed 7 mil of that 11 mil carryover.

A reasonable argument can be made that JPP's accident ended became a significant contributor to the defense the Giants have today.  I am of the opinion that JPP would not be on the Giants today had he not had the accident.  Prior to the accident, the Giants and JPP were getting nowhere fast on a long term contract. When the accident occurred there was only 11 days left to come to a long term agreement.  I can see where the resentment over being franchised would have led to JPP leaving the Giants in 2016.  I highly doubt the Giants would have franchised him again.  That would have tied up 18 mil in CAP space which would have made it impossible for the Giants to be highly active in free agency during the 2016 off season  . 

[Ed Vette]

Yes, I am estimating that there will be a carryover of 3 mil from 2017 to 2018.  Any CAP leftover from one year can be carryover to the next year.

Here is what I remember from the whole JPP episode:

1. The franchise tag was around 15 mil.
2.  JPP came back for part of that season and earned around 8 mil for a 7 mil savings and CAP carryover.
3.  The carryover played a significant part in the Giants being so active in free agency in 2016.  If I remember correctly, the Giants had 20 mil in CAP space of which 11 mil was carryover. So the accident contributed 7 mil of that 11 mil carryover.

A reasonable argument can be made that JPP's accident ended became a significant contributor to the defense the Giants have today.  I am of the opinion that JPP would not be on the Giants today had he not had the accident.  Prior to the accident, the Giants and JPP were getting nowhere fast on a long term contract. When the accident occurred there was only 11 days left to come to a long term agreement.  I can see where the resentment over being franchised would have led to JPP leaving the Giants in 2016.  I highly doubt the Giants would have franchised him again.  That would have tied up 18 mil in CAP space which would have made it impossible for the Giants to be highly active in free agency during the 2016 off season  .

Interesting perspective and I agree with your thinking here. It would make a great chapter in a book with a happy ending.   

[Shoelessjoe]

Thanks Gordon for the great response.  Although the accident had a bad affect on the Giants in the short term in the long term it allowed the Giants to rebuild the defense into a top tier unit and they still had JPP on board.  If I remember correctly his contract was for 2016 was around 10m for 1 year they were already paying him 8m so he only added 2m to the cap in 2016 from 2015.

Although JPP lost money has still made out well and the Giants didn't do so bad either however, as you have stated unless he plays well his current contract could come back to hurt the team.

[gregf]

I noticed today JT Thomas took a significant cut, a savings of around 2 million. I thought he would be an outright cut. This is good cap management. Hopefully we roll a bit towards next years needs to maintain our FAs.

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[AP44]

If the OL struggles again this year, it makes no sense bringing back both Pugh and Richburg.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news. But the Giants are a win now team. I think it will be hard pressed for them to win in about 3-4 years. Getting rid of Eli after this year makes no sense. Havign Webb take over in 2 years means you have the most inexperience player battling for a SB? Good luck.

This year and next year are SB contending years.

[todge]

If the OL struggles again this year, it makes no sense bringing back both Pugh and Richburg.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news. But the Giants are a win now team. I think it will be hard pressed for them to win in about 3-4 years. Getting rid of Eli after this year makes no sense. Havign Webb take over in 2 years means you have the most inexperience player battling for a SB? Good luck.

This year and next year are SB contending years.

No team wants to be in a position where they need to rebuild their entire OL across every position.  I think resigning Richburg and Pugh will be a priority this offseason. They are not great players but they are certainly more stable than both tackles are.


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