OMG Omicron

[Bob In PA]

Bob,

In the context of our conversation, why is the name of the new variant so important to you????   Maybe you should go back to the same people who told you about "xi" and ask them why they "forgot" about "nu"

Rich: I get your point, but that's not what happened.  I keep a variant list, and have one scratched out, then re-entered, then scratched out again, so there is/was confusion on my part about the right number.  Bob

[Bob In PA]

To anticipate the question, "Why keep a list, Bob?" I will just note that the CDC list is not up-to-date.... at least the list in the link below.  Bob

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html

[MightyGiants]

The Merk pill seems like a bust, but there is still hope for the Pfizer anti-viral.  It could help if we get into a whack-a-mole situation


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/11/30/1059926089/new-antiviral-drugs-are-coming-for-covid-heres-what-you-need-to-know

[LennG]

Omicron - love the name - sounds like a warrior group out of Star Wars or a secret energy source the galaxies are fighting over.

Some people have huddled down in fear, while others go about business as usual. Me...it's business as usual. I got my J&J booster shot last week and haven't even had a cold in a few years now (knock on wood). The biggest problem I have with it is that it caused my portfolio to crash 4.9% last Friday as the market is made up of an awful lot of skittish folks - any negative news and BAM...sell, sell, sell. 

Luckily, today's market has recovered most of my losses from Friday's selloff so I think the scare is over

Anyone worried about this latest COVID variation/mutation? 

So much for that recovery.

[DaveBrown74]

So much for that recovery.

Hahaha. Twist the knife, why don't you.

To be fair, today's bloodbath was more about the hawkish comments from the Fed chair than it was about the vaccine news. S+P futures had rallied pretty much back to flat prior to the Powell comments.

[MightyGiants]

Hahaha. Twist the knife, why don't you.

To be fair, today's bloodbath was more about the hawkish comments from the Fed chair than it was about the vaccine news. S+P futures had rallied pretty much back to flat prior to the Powell comments.

I thought Powell's comments were pretty much what everyone expected

[Jolly Blue Giant]

So much for that recovery.

Yeah - a big bloodbath yesterday. I read one guy's take on it and he said, "being a retail investor is like paying someone a lot of money to punch you right in the f***g mouth". Made me laugh. There will be days like that and they aren't fun.

Pre-market is on a bull run this morning so maybe it'll recover. I'm up half what I lost yesterday and it's not even 9:00 yet. Should be interesting when the bell rings to see how many retail investors jump right back in or if they're still skittish from the last few rounds. As for me, I'm just holdin pat. I actually had one of my 22 portfolio stocks in the green yesterday - not by much, but still in the green (ie, EOSE). Even FSR, LCID, and NVDA were down, three of my favorites though.

Tuesday's dumpster fire:

[DaveBrown74]

I thought Powell's comments were pretty much what everyone expected

In the previous Fed meeting he was pretty clear that he wanted to wrap the tapering up by next June. Yesterday he unexpectedly said they might want to get it done even faster, possibly by a couple of months. A potentially faster than expected drain of excess liquidity from the system threw the market for a bit of a loop.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/30/business/stock-markets-omicron.html

[MightyGiants]

In the previous Fed meeting he was pretty clear that he wanted to wrap the tapering up by next June. Yesterday he unexpectedly said they might want to get it done even faster, possibly by a couple of months. A potentially faster than expected drain of excess liquidity from the system threw the market for a bit of a loop.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/30/business/stock-markets-omicron.html

Thanks for the article.   Odd that the markets bounced back so quickly

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Thanks for the article.   Odd that the markets bounced back so quickly

Bounced back early this morning but by noon were going the other way and are now retreating - not like yesterday, but down a bit

[MightyGiants]

Bounced back early this morning but by noon were going the other way and are now retreating - not like yesterday, but down a bit

I suspect some investors used the bump to dump some of their holdings fearing that between tapering and Omicron we are in for a bumpy ride.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I suspect some investors used the bump to dump some of their holdings fearing that between tapering and Omicron we are in for a bumpy ride.

For sure. The big investment houses have computers analyzing every stock with algorithms signalling when to sell and buy (unless overridden by a lead investor). And of course, the big investment houses play lots of games using the press as a weapon. Retail investors vs. Institutional investors is a hidden war. Little guy against the machine.

Even when the retail investors go all in on a stock, the investment houses finds ways to push it back down. Of course their favorite trick is to release a press notice to their favorite financial newspaper that they are "downgrading a stock from buy to neutral, or buy to sell"...then many of the retail investors (especially day traders) sell, the price drops 5%, the investment houses buy it up once it's dipped low and release a notice that they are now rating the stock a "buy or strong buy" and everyone jumps back in...until the next notice is released.

Hence, pick stocks that you have researched long and hard as if you were buying a car or a home - then hold onto it for the long haul and don't get caught up in the ebb and flow caused by analysts releasing their take on a stock.

[DaveBrown74]

Thanks for the article.   Odd that the markets bounced back so quickly

Fully agreed, although (more as a general point) market participants have been trained over a long period now to buy dips very quickly. The overarching stock market sentiment is still just so euphoric that the half-life of any bad news item is incredibly (and often nonsensically) short. People are trained to now think a "dip" is 1-2 days and maybe 2-3%. 

One of these days, and I'm not saying this is necessarily right around the corner, this strategy won't work so well anymore.

[MightyGiants]

Well, the first Omicron case has made it to the US (California).  Initial reports seem to indicate it might be contained and isolated.


As for investing, I am a stock investor, not a stock trader.   I have moved off of individual stocks (for the most part) in favor of ETFs.  There is just too much information we don't know about companies to make me comfortable with investing in individual stocks without a compelling reason. 

[DaveBrown74]

Well, the first Omicron case has made it to the US (California).  Initial reports seem to indicate it might be contained and isolated.


As for investing, I am a stock investor, not a stock trader.   I have moved off of individual stocks (for the most part) in favor of ETFs.  There is just too much information we don't know about companies to make me comfortable with investing in individual stocks without a compelling reason.

I thought it was strange that stocks were hit so hard yesterday because of the US case. Did anyone actually think this strain wasn't going to turn up in this country?

It is not hugely surprising the market is recovering today, as that seemed like an overreaction.