Investing and finance thread

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Rich: IMO not going to happen.  Why not? 

The vast majority of oil companies (I don't know for sure about Chevron) saw the handwriting on the wall long ago and are working to establish a presence (whether dominant or not) in alternative energy.

That IMO is even more true of the non-US-based companies (which are some of the largest in the world).

Bob

Another example of this is the popularity of e-cigarettes (electronic vaping) that has taken the country by storm. What most people do not know, is that companies like Philip Morris, Altria Group Inc., Reynolds American Inc. (the largest cigarette makers in the U.S.) have bought out most of the vaping companies

And another...auto manufacturers are pumping tens of billions into electric vehicle development

[MightyGiants]

Another example of this is the popularity of e-cigarettes (electronic vaping) that has taken the country by storm. What most people do not know, is that companies like Philip Morris, Altria Group Inc., Reynolds American Inc. (the largest cigarette makers in the U.S.) have bought out most of the vaping companies

And another...auto manufacturers are pumping tens of billions into electric vehicle development

I am watching with curiosity (not invested) in how Tesla does.  I mean I see plenty of them on the road, but early pioneers are not always the dominant ones long-term (I think we are seeing that with Netflix).   Right now Telsa has the electric car market pretty much to itself.   I wonder how they will do when the big boys show up and get serious about competing in the electric vehicle space.

[Bob In PA]

I'm ready to reply to Rich's question somewhere above asking, essentially, what now... is this the "bottom?"  Sadly (I guess), I believe the market will go down another 10% before finding a secure stopping point.

I've been stalling for a while (about a week), not wanting to be the bearer of bad news.  I've been involved directly in the stock market since I was 18 years old (Nixon era... "a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...").

And I've applied everything I've learned in all those many years to making that prognostication... so, as it turns out, there is some very VERY good news for all of you... I'm usually wrong about these things.  LOL

Bob

PS. Why did I say "I guess" above? If you have significant $$$ on the sidelines, the farther prices come down before the dive ends, the more numerous true bargains will be (increasing the odds of picking big winners).

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Well, I'm certainly ready for a rebound. Sitting on the sidelines is killing me 

Could be worse



Buffet makes money because he regards down markets as an opportunity to buy good companies at reasonable prices. He is not speculative and looks only at the long haul so he does not hold billions in tech, crypto, social media, etc.

As far as Tesla goes, I bought stock in the company a couple of years ago and got out. Common sense tells me that a start up car company cannot be worth many times more than all the car companies in the world combined (Toyota, GM, Ford, BMW, Benz, Volvo, VW, etc). Tesla has the capability of producing 1.05 million cars per year. The rest of the car companies produce over 79 million per year.

Stock Prices

Tesla (TSLA) 634.30 (was at 1229.91 on November 5, 2021 - down 40% since first of year)
Toyota (TM) 160.72
Mercedes-Benz Group AG (DDAIF) 68.82
General Motors (GM) 35.04
Ford (F) 12.42
Volkswagen AG (VWAGY) 19.75
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMWYY) 28.00
Stellantis N.V. (STLA) (Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citro

[MightyGiants]

Ric,

I really like what Frisker is doing and what its goals are.   Truly the type of company I would like to get behind.   My only concern is I would feel a lot better if there were prototype models and the like.   I would like them to be further along in terms of actually making a car.   I mean usually, once you create prototypes there is testing and the like.  I really don't see how they will be starting production in November.  I can't help but feel the company may be overpromising.  I mean to groundbreaking vehicles being designed from scratch with groundbreaking technologies.  I just don't see how that can go smoothly

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Good day in the Market. Maybe we've hit bottom and the rebound is finally starting

[MightyGiants]

Good day in the Market. Maybe we've hit bottom and the rebound is finally starting

I was listening to a Motley Fool podcast yesterday.   They were talking about the bad day we had on Tuesday where things tanked badly because SNAP (Snap Chat) lowered their guidance.  The question the Podcasters asked was "how do we know this is a sign the economy is going into a recession rather than SNAP just messing up their guidance calculations?   It seems the market is very skittish these days

[Bob In PA]

In any bear market (or major correction), there is always what they call a "sucker's rally" somewhere in the MIDDLE of the process.  I prefer to refer to it as a "false start" since we're on a football website lol.

I'm not saying (or not not saying) this is one, but the well-known phrase "let the buyer beware" should always be at the forefront of one's thinking at times like these (whether or not it is observed).

I don't know, but I do know if the rally continues through tomorrow, then it will merit serious consideration.  If the market just goes right back down tomorrow, please refer to my previous post. Oy!!!!

Bob

[MightyGiants]

Bob and Ric,

I am taking a cautious approach.   I am mindful that one can never time the peak or the bottom of the market (at least consistently).

I want to see evidence that inflation's back has been broken before I will feel comfortable about the markets.   Right now they are skittish.  Worse there is a lot of talk in the media about recession which often can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.    So for now I am waiting on the sidelines and spending some time figuring out which companies and sectors I will want to buy when I think that things have stabilized.   

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I read a lot of stuff from a variety of financial institutions. Most fear a recession while Baron's calls a recession nearly inevitable because there are no more tools in the box to stave it off. If the fed raises rates faster, we go into a tail spin and usher in recession. On the other hand, if they don't, inflation might get much worse. Scary stuff. However, with trillions sitting on the sideline dwindling, sooner or later you'd think they have to jump back in as there's no where to stash the cash without losing because of runaway inflation. The bond market allows the wealth to dwindle more slowly than simply saving it and precious metals go up at a snail's pace not unlike bonds. I think the market is the only place left to hold one's value unless one wants to speculate in real estate

I just returned from town and noticed today that a couple of gas stations show their price over 5.00. That is really taking a huge bite out of my wallet as I drive a lot and typically go through a tank of gas a week. What used to cost me 22.00 to fill an empty tank (I have a little Kia Soul w/12 gal tank), now it costs me closer to 60.00 to fill that little hamster buggy...that adds up fast and I don't think it's going to get better any time soon and probably worse

[MightyGiants]

I read a lot of stuff from a variety of financial institutions. Most fear a recession while Baron's calls a recession nearly inevitable because there are no more tools in the box to stave it off. If the fed raises rates faster, we go into a tail spin and usher in recession. On the other hand, if they don't, inflation might get much worse. Scary stuff. However, with trillions sitting on the sideline dwindling, sooner or later you'd think they have to jump back in as there's no where to stash the cash without losing because of runaway inflation. The bond market allows the wealth to dwindle more slowly than simply saving it and precious metals go up at a snail's pace not unlike bonds. I think the market is the only place left to hold one's value unless one wants to speculate in real estate

I just returned from town and noticed today that a couple of gas stations show their price over 5.00. That is really taking a huge bite out of my wallet as I drive a lot and typically go through a tank of gas a week. What used to cost me 22.00 to fill an empty tank (I have a little Kia Soul w/12 gal tank), now it costs me closer to 60.00 to fill that little hamster buggy...that adds up fast and I don't think it's going to get better any time soon and probably worse

I subscribe to Barrons.  Lately I notice they tend to make the bad news banner headlines, while the good news gets relegated to side stories.

[Bob In PA]

I'd say right now there is more bad news that good news.  That could explain it.  Bob

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Good day thus far. I'm up 3.55% after going up just shy of 5% yesterday. Unfortunately, it doesn't begin to cover my losses    ...got a long way to go before I get back to where I was in November 

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I will probably pay for this comment, but man...I am having a hell of a day in the market. Best single day since late last year. Portfolio is up over 7% since this morning. My 35 shares of Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) is on fire and Fisker nearly 8% already! Maybe we have seen the bottom and all that money sitting on the sidelines is being thrown back in...man I hope so

[MightyGiants]

Today's jobs report showed job creation beat expectation and unemployment held a a good 3.6% which sort of quells concerns of a recession.

So what does the market do?   DROP   

This is why I don't trade options, why the market moves the way it does is a mystery to me