Nix VS Penix VS McCarthy

[MightyGiants]

I came across these excellent (at least, I consider them high quality) scouting reports on the 3 QBs in competition to become QB 4 (likely the best QB the Giants will have access to)

Bo Nix, Oregon
Height: 6'2"; Weight: 217 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 24 years and 2 months
Class: Fifth-Year Senior
Overall Grade: 3.17/4 (Good Starter)

2023 Games Charted: Oregon State, Utah, Washington (Regular Season), Washington (Pac-12 Championship)

Totals from Games Charted:

Short Throw Accuracy on Platform: 143/194 (73.71%)
Short Throw Accuracy off Platform: 30/50 (60%)
Medium Throw Accuracy on Platform: 14/24 (58.33%)
Medium Throw Accuracy off Platform: 8/10 (80%)
Deep Throw Accuracy on Platform: 7/12 (58.33%)
Deep Throw Accuracy off Platform: 1/2 (50%)
Left Side of Field Accuracy: 87/124 (70.16%)
Middle of Field Accuracy: 39/56 (69.64%)
Right Side of Field Accuracy: 77/112 (68.75%)
On Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 4/7 (1/1.75 per game)
Off Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 2/2 (0.5/0.5 per game)

Sacks/Fumbles: 3/0 (0.75/0 per game)
Deflections/Pass Interference: 1/1 (0.25/0.25 per game)
Throwaways/INTs: 4/1 (1/0.25 per game)
Drops: 8 (2 per game)
Designed Runs/Scrambles: 12/8 (3/2 per game)
Success vs Blitz: 19/29 (65.52%)
Success vs Pressure: 30/54 (55.56%)

Footwork: C
Pocket Presence: B+
"Playmaking": C+
Short Throw Accuracy: B+
Medium Throw Accuracy: A
Deep Throw Accuracy: B+
Throw on the Run: A-
Success Against Pressure/Blitz: B
Arm Strength: B
Release: A-
Ball Security: A-
Top Starter Potential: B-

Comp: Geno Smith

Bo Nix is going to be an interesting player to see what the general consensus is on him and see where he gets drafted. After struggling at Auburn for the first three years of his career, he transferred to Oregon and became a legitimate Heisman candidate and turned several doubters, like myself, into fans. He greatly improved his accuracy and is accurate on all sides of the field and easily was the most accurate QB I've looked at so far (currently through 12 QBs) in the medium depth area of the field. He has a good arm with a fast, compact release to allow him to quickly get the ball out. He also consistently showed the ability to throw accurate passes while off platform and especially while rolling out of the pocket. He likely is helped by Oregon's quick passing scheme but he has consistently shown the ability to make quick, safe decisions in the passing game and has good anticipation of his receivers' routes. He also has solid mobility to add another dimension to his game and make him more of a threat.

I started his charting with the Oregon State and Utah games and I was surprised that his scores were surprisingly at the top of the class. Then the Washington games hit and oof, did they ever hit. The biggest area of improvement for Nix is definitely the ability to not panic when things go off script and when pressure gets in his face. While he wasn't the worst against pressure thanks to his legs, his footwork would fizzle out and he would too often throw off his back foot and doesn't seem confident climbing the pocket. Speaking of footwork, he does have some strengths such as having a wide base at the end of his drop and keeping his toes pointed towards receivers. But he also often just seems a bit out of rhythm in his drop back and won't always finish his drop strong. He also seems to have a false step/hop with his right foot that he will need to work out and is too toesy during his drop. Also, an alarming amount of production came from the short passing game and YAC and these types of plays just won't always be there in the NFL. He also didn't do it too often, but I caught him staring down his first read on key downs during the Washington games and forcing it to the first read instead of scanning the field and missing an open receiver. So, while there is a lot of truth to Nix being one of the most accurate and safer passers in this class and NFL offenses starting to get closer to college style of offenses, there is definitely going to be an adjustment period for him in the NFL and he could be in for a bit of a clunkier start than expected.

If any teams or GMs do checkmarks for what they want a QB to do or be capable of, its hard to find too many things Nix can't do. But something important to consider with Nix's grade is that this is looking at him in the best possible light due to being in a near perfect system for him. As a current player in the best offense for him, Bo Nix is up there with the best of the best in this great class. For a team looking to add a QB to a Shanahan-like offense, Nix is basically the blueprint for the QB you want. He excels at hitting the medium yardage routes that are a key part of the offense, he plays safe and can play within the system, and he has a plus arm and legs to make him more than just a back-up level QB hanging on to survive. While he likely won't have the highlight moments that get fans excited, he is capable of making the plays necessary to win games and a little more. In past years, he likely would be a player that would be ignored in favor of the highlight reel type of players coming out. But, I think he will get more consideration due to the Brock Purdy effect and could sneak into the first round. While I definitely understand if others may not be as high on him due to a limited ceiling, I think there will just always be a place for guys that make good decisions and can play within a system with accuracy. Due to this, I have late-career Geno Smith as his comp due to Geno showing those moments of greatness despite never being viewed as a star but having occasional games where he looks overwhelmed. Like Geno did in Seattle, I think Nix can earn a starting role with his accuracy, ability to keep the offense on script, and protective nature with the ball.


JJ McCarthy, Michigan
Height: 6'3"; Weight: 202 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 21 years and 3 months
Class: Junior
Overall Grade: 3.06/4 (Good Starter)

2023 Games Charted:

Totals from Games Charted: Ohio State, Iowa, Alabama, Washington
Short Throw Accuracy on Platform: 86/118 (72.88%)
Short Throw Accuracy off Platform: 21/32 (65.63%)
Medium Throw Accuracy on Platform: 4/12 (33.33%)
Medium Throw Accuracy off Platform: 9/14 (64.29%)
Deep Throw Accuracy on Platform: 1/2 (50%)
Deep Throw Accuracy off Platform: N/A
Left Side of Field Accuracy: 35/54 (64.81%)
Middle of Field Accuracy: 19/26 (73.08%)
Right Side of Field Accuracy: 67/98 (68.37%)
On Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 4/2 (1/0.5 per game)
Off Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 3/1 (0.75/0.25 per game)

Sacks/Fumbles: 6/0 (1.5/0 per game)
Deflections/Pass Interference: 4/0 (1/0 per game)
Throwaways/INTs: 0/0
Drops: 5 (1.25 per game)
Designed Runs/Scrambles: 6/5 (1.5/1.25 per game)
Success vs Blitz: 15/26 (57.69%)
Success vs Pressure: 31/49 (63.27%)

Footwork: B
Pocket Presence: C+
"Playmaking": B-
Short Throw Accuracy: B+
Medium Throw Accuracy: B+
Deep Throw Accuracy: B-
Throw on the Run: A
Success Against Pressure/Blitz: B+
Arm Strength: B+
Release: B+
Ball Security: B-
Top Starter Potential: B-

Comp: Daniel Jones

A lot of the mock drafts I've seen recently have him as a clear first round QBs. Other individuals have even gone as far to say that he is a day 2 pick on a good day, day 3 pick on a bad day/team. I will come out and say that I personally didn't get the hype with McCarthy last year. When I went and worked on my watchlist for QBs for the season last summer, I got a slightly better understanding where the hype was coming from but still couldn't bring myself to get that excited. I was hoping doing a more thorough review and charting would make me have an epiphany like I had with Drake Maye. While he graded better than I expected, I still have some concerns. But let's start with the positives. From a fundamental standpoint, he has decent mechanics in the pocket and great mechanics outside the pocket. In the pocket, he maintains a nice, wide base during his dropback and at the end of his drop. He also does a good job keeping his feet flat during his dropback and when scanning the defense. He also isn't afraid to deliver throws in the pocket through hits and does a good job keeping his eyes downfield. He also has a nice, compact release that doesn't seem to have much wasted motion. He's at his best on the run or rolling out with great form to keep his chest and feet square to his target when making throws on the run leading to his most accurate throws. He's able to combine his strong arm and fast speed to be a threat when on the move and capable of picking up big gains on the ground. In general, these strengths helped him ensure he kept the offense on track. Also, while it can fluctuate, he is capable of sprinkling in some truly elite throws and ball placement from time to time. From my summer review of his previous season, it even seems like his "way off" accuracy improved this year providing some hope he will continue to grow as a passer. Finally, I don't put a ton of weight into this, but he nearly always came up big in the biggest games and biggest downs of the year.

Now to the negatives and why a number of individuals, including myself, still have some concerns. Like I said, outside the pocket his mechanics and accuracy are great. Inside the pocket, they can use some work. He doesn't always align his feet with his target and seems to mostly work through his upper body potentially contributing to his erratic accuracy when throwing in the pocket. The lack of use of his legs in the pocket also shows with his release which while it is compact, doesn't have the speed you would like to see and at times almost looks too casual. Also, I don't know if I would call it a false step, but he seems to almost have a false rock at the start of his drop. He also just doesn't seem to have a good rhythm to his drop back and often will seem like he's rushing it especially when he has a quick pass/read he knows he wants to hit. Speaking of reads, he will at times seem a bit slow/late on reads when throwing from the pocket but will still try to force throws after the receiver has been taken away. There were also a number of times where he seemed too indecisive whether to throw or run and was caught in the backfield before getting the throw off or breaking a run. He also doesn't always seem confident stepping up in the pocket to move with pressure. When pressure does start to close in, he seems to have a tendency to duck his head and look for a running lane. With pressure, he does generally do a good job getting the ball out before it gets too close, but will still at times have this sneak up on him and seemed to be a bit too confident in his ability to escape the pressure leading to unnecessary sacks. He also seems to struggle with putting touch on balls and will often unnecessarily launch lasers at targets. He also wasn't asked to get the ball deep down the field too often but his downfield accuracy is lacking from what I saw during these games and from casually watching during this season and last. His general ball placement is just also not great with him seeming to often make life more difficult for his receivers with them needing to make tough adjustments due to poor placement. In general, his games were frustrating to watch because I would occasionally shift between, "okay that was a good play" to "how did he miss that throw that badly?" Also, not so much a fault of his, but he didn't have too many opportunities to show he can be a leading force for an offense that needs to keep up with another competent offense. In fact had easily one of the fewest total passing attempts of any QB I've looked at so far (including ones I haven't made posts for yet).

McCarthy will be another good test to see if people value a player's ceiling or floor more. There's a lot to like about McCarthy between his best throws, his protective nature with the ball, and his legs. I liked him more than I expected after following him last year and during this past season but I don't see him as a high, middle first round type of guy and I have a lot of concerns for him as a pocket passer. His inconsistent accuracy, pocket confidence, and processing speed make me question how much he will further develop as a passer. Honestly, some of the play calling and decisions Harbaugh made in games made it seem like he was aware of both McCarthy's limitations but also had a good awareness of how to maximize his impact in big games. He's at his best throwing on the move and not pushing the ball downfield. NFL teams will look at his Alabama game as a template of how to use him in his early days as a starter. That game, he was great outside of the pocket and did a good job getting the ball out before pressure got close. For both his ability to run the ball and having tepid feelings about both coming out, I have Daniel Jones as his comp. As I mentioned, but have good speed and smaller frames. Also, both had tendencies to be wildly inconsistent and would struggle with ball placement as passers. Both also benefited from play action offenses and appeared to be a tick slow as processors. Honestly the Daniel Jones comps will likely be made by everyone, if they haven't already, but it just feels uncanny the more I watch McCarthy.


Michael Penix Jr, Washington
Height: 6'2"; Weight: 212 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 23 years and 11 months
Class: RS Junior
Overall Grade: 2.97/4 (Good Role Player)

2023 Games Charted: Utah, Texas, Michigan, Oregon (Pac-12 Championship)

Totals from Games Charted:
Short Throw Accuracy on Platform: 117/154 (75.97%)
Short Throw Accuracy off Platform: 53/80 (66.25%)
Medium Throw Accuracy on Platform: 35/56 (62.5%)
Medium Throw Accuracy off Platform: 3/4 (75%)
Deep Throw Accuracy on Platform: 16/26 (61.54%)
Deep Throw Accuracy off Platform: 0/2 (0%)
Left Side of Field Accuracy: 100/144 (69.44%)
Middle of Field Accuracy: 40/54 (74.07%)
Right Side of Field Accuracy: 84/124 (67.74%)
On Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 15/2 (3.75/0.5 per game)
Off Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 4/1 (1/0.25 per game)

Sacks/Fumbles: 5/1 (1.25/0.25 per game)
Deflections/Pass Interference: 3/7 (0.75/1.75 per game)
Throwaways/INTs: 13/3 (3.25/0.75 per game)
Drops: 5 (1.25 per game per game)
Designed Runs/Scrambles: 8/2 (2/0.5 per game)
Success vs Blitz: 30/52 (57.69%)
Success vs Pressure: 53/102 (51.96%)

Footwork: B
Pocket Presence: B+
"Playmaking": C+
Short Throw Accuracy: B+
Medium Throw Accuracy: B+
Deep Throw Accuracy: B
Throw on the Run: B+
Success Against Pressure/Blitz: B-
Arm Strength: B
Release: B-
Ball Security: B-
Top Starter Potential: B-

Comp: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Michael Penix Jr. was one of the better stories in college football these past 2 years. After struggling with season ending leg injuries at Indiana, he transferred to Washington to reunite with his former OC/QB coach and be paired with the great receivers there and thrived these past two seasons. Penix Jr. is one of the better QBs at getting the ball downfield consistently with the most combined medium and deep attempts of any of the QBs I've watched so far for this class. While he has a good, but not great arm, he does have great touch to his deep balls and also uses this for good accuracy on back shoulder throws. While he is very much a gunslinger type of QBs, he isn't the stereotypical type of passer that refuses to throw the ball away and is willing to acknowledge when a play is dead. He also uses his eyes well to draw defenders away from his true target and does a good job at directing throws to his receivers to set them up to evade defenders. He also shows the ability to work through progressions that you would expect from an upperclassman like him. He also has a lot of toughness and isn't afraid to make throws through contact. When pressure is getting to him, he generally does a good job to get the ball out before pressure gets to him and makes some nice subtle movements in the pocket. If you heard of him but haven't watched him, you probably assume he is frozen in the pocket and incapable of moving. This isn't the case as he did have some QB runs, including QB sneaks, and does have some ability to pick up some yards on the ground. Some statues are made out of stone (like Tanner McKee from last year or Carson Strong from 2022) and are truly stuck in place in the pocket while others are made of clay and have at least a little wiggle to move around in the pocket and move if absolutely necessary. Penix fits more of the clay statue mold. His footwork is also better than expected with a wide base at the end of his dropback and he consistently does a good job keeping his feet and chest pointed towards his targets on throws. Finally, he can be a bit streaky. But when he's on, he's on fire. You can look to the Texas game as an example of this as that film will likely get at least one GM to pound the table for him come draft night.

Now while he does have a good arm, like I mentioned its not at the level as the top of this class. He could also benefit from stepping more into his throws to add more speed to his balls. The start of his drop also doesn't have a strong start and seems to start him a bit out of rhythm due to doing a small skip/hop to start. It usually works itself out as the drop goes on but is not ideal to start with. His heels will also tend to get a little close together when gathering himself before the end of his drop but again, he usually bounces back to a wide base. There were also a few times where he would miss opportunities to step up in the pocket to prolong plays and let pressure end the play early. Also, he has a tendency to air mail some throws, some of which caused interceptions or just made him miss big plays. Now to talk about his release, and oh man, its funky. The speed of his delivery is still pretty fast thanks to his solid arm strength, but from a path standpoint, it drops too far down and far back. Also, with his strange release, he seems to have limited arm angles to make throws with. This especially seemed to create challenges when needing to make throws around oncoming pressure. Also, while his on the throw run grade was high, he had minimal medium and deep passes on the run allowing this to be higher and I think the minimal attempts prove that this is an issue for him. He also still struggles with the tendency to make some questionable decisions that became too common near the end of the regular season. Also goes without saying and something I won't be able to answer, but his medical history will need to be examined extensively and may take him off of some teams' draft boards altogether.

His injury and college story, the exciting offense with the rise Washington has seen, and even quirky things like Penix's last name and release being memorable make him really easy to root for. But, I still have my reservations about him from an injury standpoint and how well he handles games when he doesn't have time to set and throw deep as we saw against Michigan. Due to both having the ability to be starters for multiple years, both capable of catching fire, and having a good deep ball, I have Ryan Fitzpatrick as his comp. Both also struggle with pressure and have a good, but not excellent arms, and both have more wiggle than you'd expect and both likely will get a lot of fans from whatever team they go to.


-Future All-Pro= 4-3.5
-Top Tier Prospect= 3.4.9-3.25
-Good Starter= 3.24-3
-Good Role Player= 2.99-2.75
-May Have a Future Role= 2.74=2.5
-Needs Improvement to Contribute= 2.49-2.25
-Unlikely to Contribute= 2.24-2
-<2= Likely Not Worth Rostering.



    Caleb Williams, USC; Overall Grade: 3.22 (Good Starter)
    Drake Maye, UNC; Overall Grade: 3.17 (Good Starter)
    Jayden Daniels, LSU; Overall Grade: 3.17 (Good Starter)
    Bo Nix, Oregon; Overall Grade 3.17 (Good Starter)
    JJ McCarthy, Michigan; Overall Grade: 3.06 (Good Starter)
    Michael Penix Jr, Washington; Overall Grade: 2.97/4 (Good Role Player)


https://old.reddit.com/user/Backseat_Scout/submitted/?count=26&before=t3_12zd14p

[madbadger]

All things being equal you take McCarthy. He's two years younger than Penix and three years younger than Nix.

[MightyGiants]

All things being equal you take McCarthy. He's two years younger than Penix and three years younger than Nix.

Age does matter.  I suspect with Nix and Penix, you are getting more NFL-ready QBs, but there isn't much of a ceiling left, while with the much younger McCarthy, you are getting a less NFL-ready QB who has significantly more ceiling owing to his age.  Of course, you need him to go to a team that is skilled at developing QB talent.  For all his weaknesses, Daboll does seem pretty good at QB development.

[Ed Vette]

Good find Rich. I'm surprised he graded Maye the same overall as Daniels and Nix. Maye at this point would be my choice of this class. I would be happy with Daniels or Nix. At six? Hmmmm

[Ed Vette]

All things being equal you take McCarthy. He's two years younger than Penix and three years younger than Nix.

He did play better teams in this comparison. His % of contribution however was held back due to that Run Offense. Which made me wonder.

[MightyGiants]

Good find Rich. I'm surprised he graded Maye the same overall as Daniels and Nix. Maye at this point would be my choice of this class. I would be happy with Daniels or Nix. At six? Hmmmm

While McCarthy is the most polarizing prospect in this draft class, I think Maye comes in second.  I have heard reports that Maye is simply a really good 2 way QB, and then I have people questioning if he is among the elite prospects.  I suspect the knock on Maye is he is just steady and consistent, he doesn't have as many splash plays as the other 2 elite QB prospects.

[Ed Vette]

While McCarthy is the most polarizing prospect in this draft class, I think Maye comes in second.  I have heard reports that Maye is simply a really good 2 way QB, and then I have people questioning if he is among the elite prospects.  I suspect the knock on Maye is he is just steady and consistent, he doesn't have as many splash plays as the other 2 elite QB prospects.

Actually according to these reports, nobody in this class has elite potential.

[Ed Vette]

Did he do a profile on Sam Hartman?

[MightyGiants]

Did he do a profile on Sam Hartman?

not yet

I will add that Hartman did not look great, despite a huge amount of snaps, in the Senior Bowl

[MightyGiants]

Actually according to these reports, nobody in this class has elite potential.

I wouldn't disagree as I see significant warts/red flags with all the prospects.  Not a real clean one in the bunch

[MightyGiants]

For the age factor.  Here are the QB's PFF grades for the season they were 20 at the start

C. Williams- 91.2
D Maye- 91.9
JJ McCarthy- 91.0
J. Daniels- 82.7
M. Penix- 82.9
B. Nix- 78.5

[Ed Vette]

not yet

I will add that Hartman did not look great, despite a huge amount of snaps, in the Senior Bowl

Not at all. They yanked Nix far too soon and I was disappointed.

[MightyGiants]

Not at all. They yanked Nix far too soon and I was disappointed.

Considering Penix didn't play and Rattler only played two series, the two-series limit may have been at the QB's (or his agent's) request.

I was even more disappointed in just how BAD the NFL network broadcast of the game was.  It was like THEY were bored and thought useless interviews were more important/interesting than the actual game.

[sooners56]

Actually according to these reports, nobody in this class has elite potential.

Which, goes against many experts opinions. Williams is considered one of the better QBs to come out in a long time (likely due to the success of Mahomes and how Williams compares to Mahomes), and Maye and Daniel's are considered elite.

[Ed Vette]

Which, goes against many experts opinions. Williams is considered one of the better QBs to come out in a long time (likely due to the success of Mahomes and how Williams compares to Mahomes), and Maye and Daniel's are considered elite.

This is where the player interviews and those around them and the intangible research comes in.