The Big Hitter's Scouting Report: Washington Offense

[bighitterdalama]

Washington Offense

With a 100% new regime in town and but a single regular season game in hand, there is not much game film to review on the Washington offense. I did spend quite a bit of time reviewing last weekend's 37-20 loss to Tampa Bay. To put it mildly, the game call I witnessed was a bit odd, almost zany, like a Three Stooges skit. Why, one might ask, the strange play calling? Kliff Kingsbury.

Kingsbury has a reputation as a first-class offensive mind, which is certainly true. Problem is, his offense is more styled to the college RPO/read option game. Kingsbury began his coaching career at the University of Houston, where he served first as an Offensive Quality Control coordinator and then as QB Coach/OC. In 2013, Texas Tech hired him as Head Coach, where he ultimately coached Kyler Murray. As the 2019 draft approached, Murray was considered one of the top QB prospects. Problem was, Murray, an excellent baseball player, began to hint that he might forego a career in the NFL in order to play baseball. It was reported that the Cardinals, who were highly interested in drafting Murray, hired Kingsbury in part as an enticement to Murray to eschew baseball and instead play football for Arizona. Whether this was true or not, Arizona did hire Kingsbury and Murray did end up with the Cardinals. After a four-year stint in Arizona, with a 28-37-1 record, Kingsbury was fired following the 2022 season.  He spent 2023 as an offensive assistant at USC, where he helped coach up Caleb Williams. When Dan Quinn was hired by Washington, he brought in Kingsbury to be his offensive coordinator.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels is the future of the Washington offense. The #2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, I had Daniels as the top quarterback in this year's class (still do). Despite playing five years in college, Daniels, who has a relatively clean injury history, is still but 23 years-of-age. Very fast and elusive, Daniels has a strong an accurate arm; at LSU in 2023, PFF gave him an adjusted completion percentage of 69.1% on throws of 20+ yards. Daniels is listed as 6'4"/2210, but he looks a bit undersized. As a pocket passer who occasionally runs the ball, he could well have a long and productive career. My question is whether Kilff Kingsbury is trying to turn Daniels into the second coming of Kyler Murray. Or, from a Washington perspective, the new RG III. Consider the following:

In the Tampa game, Daniels had 16 carries for 88 yards, 5.5 Y/C, and two touchdowns. The 16 carries were two more than the two running backs, Brian Robinson (12) and Austin Eleker (2), had combined. Of those 16 carries, about half were obvious designed quarterback runs. That number, in of itself, is much too high. The remainder of the carries came off pass plays. Thing is, it appeared to me that most, if not all, of those carries were also by design. In each case, Daniels dropped into the pocket, made a single read, and, not seeing the primary receiver open, tucked the ball, looked for a crease through the line, and, without looking downfield for a checkdown receiver, immediately took off running. I went back and looked at the Washington preseason game against Miami, the only preseason game in which Daniels played. In 18 snaps, Daniels had two designed runs but did not once tuck the ball and take off on a drop back. Clearly Kingsbury installed this tweak as a type of RPO for Daniels, an insert into the regular season playbook that was not shown in the vanilla preseason offense. Against Tampa, Daniels scored two rushing touchdowns. Neither run was a QB sneak; both were read/option style runs where he took a hit. And an odd thing about Daniels:  at the end of an open field run, he will tumble/summersault forward instead of taking a slide.

Against Tampa, Daniels was 17/24 for 184 yards, 10.8 yards/completion, 7.7 yards/attempt, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions. Sacked twice for -23 yards, he had three fumbles, none of which was lost. One fumble was actually an errant swing pass that Daniels threw behind Brian Robinson which ended up as a seventeen-yard loss. In my review of the game, I found Kingsbury's pass play calling a bit odd. Of 24 pass attempts, 8  (33%) targeted running backs, 5 (21%) tight ends, and 11 (45%) wide receivers. In all, running backs caught 7 pass on 8 attempts for 101 yards, tight ends 3 catches on 5 targets for 28 yards, and wide receivers 7 catches on 11 targets for only 55 yards. Daniels only threw one deep ball, overthrowing Terry McLaurin on a fly pattern down the left side line. For the game, the Pro Bowler McLaurin, who has four seasons of 1000+ receiving yards, was targeted 4 times for two catches and only 15 receiving yards. #2 receiver Dyami Brown did not have a single target.

Against Tampa, Washington had 59 total offensive snaps. They had 299 yards total offense, 22 first downs, were 2/8 on third down, and had a run/pass ratio of 51%. They had 7 offensive penalties for minus 51 yards and zero turnovers. Positionally, they had one back personnel on 54 plays and two back personnel on 5 plays. They averaged 1.41 tight ends/snap and 2.47 wide receivers/snap.

Outside of Daniels and Kingsbury, let's take a look at the Washington offensive personnel.

Offensive Line

Much like the Giants, Washington is in the midst of an offensive line rebuild. 2023 starting left tackle Charles Leno Jr. was released last off-season. Washington had quite optimistically hoped that rookie Brandon Coleman, a third-round pick from TCU, could step right in as the starter. That hope was quashed when Coleman injured a pec in camp, keeping him out the preseason. He has since returned, but Washington is taking it slowly with Coleman. He did sub in last week, taking 14 snaps at left tackle. The game starter at left tackle was Washington's veteran swing tackle, Corneilius Lucas. Both Lucas and Coleman graded out tolerably well against Tampa, with respective overall PFF grades of 69.9 and 65.1. At the writing of this report, Washington has not announced which of the two will start against the Giants. The right tackle with no doubt will be veteran Andrew Wylie. A solid, if unspectacular, performer, Wylie earned a 2023 PFF overall grade of 69.2, ranking #33 of 81 qualifying tackles. Against Tampa, Wylie's PFF grade was 63.1.

Washington did make several moves to solidify the interior of the line. To start at left guard they signed Nick Allegretti, who had played the previous six seasons in Kansas City. Washington also signed Tyler Biadasz away from Dallas as center, of late a positional weak spot. Then, most recently, they extended the contract of right guard Sam Cosmi, one of the finest guards in the NFL. All three players grade well with PFF. In 2023, Allegretti received an overall PFF grade of 65.8; Biadasz a grade of 69.2, and Cosmi an outstanding grade of 80.2 (#4 of 79 qualifying guards). Last week, against Tampa, Allegretti graded 63.0 (run)/ 72.2 (pass blocking)/ and 69.9 (overall); Biadasz 61.0/73.7/64.9; Cosmi 81.6/67.6/81.6.

Outside of swing tackle Corneilius Lukas, Washington carries three O line backups. Returning at #4 tackle is Trent Scott, a 2018 UDFA from Grambling. In 2023, Scott, in 138 tackle snaps, earned PFF grades of 77.3/55.2/59.8. At this point, it appears that Scott will be Washington's "tackle eligible," having served in that role on two plays against Tampa. Chris Paul, who started ten games at right guard last season, returns as a backup. In 2023, with 439 snaps, he graded very poorly: 45.1/27.8/38.8, ranking #77 of 79. Washington also signed former Houston Texan Michael Deiter to be the backup center. A 2019 third-round pick of the Dolphins, Deiter started ten games last year in Houston, earning an overall PFF grade of 57.1.

Running Back

Last off-season, Washington declined to re-sign former 2020 third-round pick Antonio Gibson, who is now on New England. Gibson's departure solidified former Alabama RB Brian Robinson Jr. as Washington's #1 running back. Robinson, a 2022 third-round pick, had terrific 2023 season, running for 733 yards on 178 carries (4.1 Y/C) and five touchdowns. He also caught 36 passes on 43 targets for 368 yards (10.2 Y/C) and four touchdowns. Robinson did have four fumbles last season, an issue that he needs to clean up. Against Tampa, Robinson ran for 40 yards on 112 carries (3.3 Y/C) and one touchdown. He also caught 3 passes on four targets 49 yards, including a beautiful 32 yard catch and run that he took to the one yard line, setting up a Jayden Daniels one-yard touchdown run.

Splitting time with Robinson is former Charger Austin Ekeler, a 2016 UDFA from Western State. In 2023, Ekeler ran for 628 yards on 178 carries (3.5 Y/C) and five touchdowns. He also caught 51 passes on 74 targets for 436 yards (8.5 Y/C) and one touchdown. Like Robinson, Ekeler has a bit of a ball security issue, fumbling five times. Ekeler is a big motor guy who plays hard. To give an example, on the above described Robinson 32 yard reception, Ekeler threw a beautiful downfield block that added 20 yards to the end of the catch. That play occurred off 20 personnel, one of only five two-back sets by Washington last week.

Washington presently carries just three running backs. #3 is veteran RB Jeremy McNichols, a career journeyman who most recently played in San Francisco. Against Tampa, he took 16 snaps on special teams but had zero plays on offense.

Tight End

Against Tampa, as indicated above, Washington ran either 12 or 22 personnel on 41% of the offensive snaps. Starting tight end is the venerable Zach Ertz, a long-time scourge of the Giants from his time Philadelphia. Now in his 12th season, the 33-year-old Ertz, a 2013 second-round pick from Stanford, is likely nearing the end of his career. Ertz, who most recently played in Arizona, missed 17 games the past two seasons due to injury. In 2023, in 7 games, he caught 27 passes on 43 targets for 187 yards, 6.1 Y/C, and one touchdown. Career-wise, the three-time Pro Bowler has 712 receptions for 7462 yards and 46 touchdowns. Ertz went to the Kliff Kingsbury-coached Arizona Cardinals from the Eagles in a 2021 mid-season 2021 trade, a fact which likely played into his off-season acquisition by Washington. Against Tampa, Ertz took 42 offensive snaps, catching 3 passes on 4 targets for 28 yards.

Washington's backup tight end is 2021 fourth-round pick John Bates. Now in his fourth season, Washington still awaits his development into an everyday starter. In 2023, he did start four games, catching 19 passes on 28 attempts for 151 yards. Washington's #3 tight end (they only have three) is rookie Ben Sinnott. A highly regarded second-round pick from Kansas State, Washington drafted Sinnott in the hopes that he will develop into the #1 starter, He took 13 offensive snaps against Tampa but was not targeted with a pass.

Wide Receiver

Former Ohio State Buckeye Terry McLaurin is a terrific #1 receiver. Now in his sixth season, McLaurin has 380 career catches for 5300 yards, 25 touchdowns, and a 13.1 yards/catch average. That's why I found it a bit odd that he was not targeted more often last Sunday against Tampa. On 48 offensive snaps, McLaurin was targeted just 4 times for two catches and just 17 yards. #2 receiver Dyami Brown was even less utilized: in 33 offensive snaps, he was not targeted with a single pass. Brown, a 2021 third-round pick from North Carolina, has yet to develop into a true starter. In 2023, with 253 offensive snaps, he caught 12 passes on 23 targets for 168 yards, 14.0 Y/C, and one touchdown. The #3 starter is rookie Luke McCaffrey, a third-round pick from Rice. McCaffrey took 36 offensive snaps last week, catching 3 passes on 3 targets for 18 yards.

Pushing Dyami Brown for a starting role is Olamide Zaccheaus, a 2019 UDFA from Virginia. Zaccheaus, who in 2023 was in Philadelphia, played his first four seasons in Atlanta. Basically a one-trick-pony deep threat, Zaccheaus caught 10 passes last year on 20 targets for 164 yards, a 16.4 Y/C average. Against Tampa, he had 1 catch for 15 yards. Journeyman Jamison Crowder, originally a 2015 fourth-round pick of Washington, is a backup slot. He had 5 offensive snaps last week, catching one pass on one target for five yards. An excellent punt return man, he will no doubt play a part in the Washington return game.

Washington does have a sixth wide receiver: former Cowboy Noah Brown. He did not suit up against Tampa. It should also be noted that, just prior to the end of camp, Washington traded 2022 first-round pick Jahan Dotson to the Eagles for what was essentially a 2025 third-round pick. In Washington, Dotson had never developed into an offensive weapon. Additionally, he was beginning gain a pain-in-the-ass reputation. Essentially, Washington traded Dotson in a cap-saving move. His game and that of Olamide Zaccheaus are pretty much the same, but Zaccheaus costs much less. Zaccheaus has a one year $1,1 million contract, while Dotson is guaranteed $4.8 million through 2025.

Next up: the Washington Defense

[Painter]

Well done and well thoght, as always. Many thanks, Brian.

Cheers!