Cam Ward VS Shedeur Sanders VS Jaxson Dart

[DaveBrown74]

If it were as straightforward as just using a combo of stats and strength of schedule/opposing defenses, then Bama QBs would have been can't-miss picks over the years. And unfortunately, in reality, the opposite has pretty much been the case.

[Jclayton92]

If it were as straightforward as just using a combo of stats and strength of schedule/opposing defenses, then Bama QBs would have been can't-miss picks over the years. And unfortunately, in reality, the opposite has pretty much been the case.

Jake Coker and Blake Sims never put up Jaxson Dart stats though. Imagine all the talent they had at Alabama and still were mediocre, now add that talent to ole miss, but they all get injured and he still throws for 4200, 26tds and runs for another 500 yards and 3 tds. His top 2 wrs, top 2 rbs, and TEs were out for the Arkansas game along with 3 olineman so what does he do? Throws for 500, of which 254 yards and 5tds to his Wr3 lol. To an sec opponent.

[MightyGiants]

One QB I am starting to hear a lot of is Tyler Shough.  He will be 26 this year thanks to Covid and injury.   So say if he were 22 he would be up there with Ward and Sanders

[Stringer Bell]

I think anyone projecting Dart as a day 2 or day 3 pick right now makes me really rethink their judgement. Regardless of what anyone may think of Dart, some teams have him as their Qb2, and a lot have him as a top 10 pick. Not just one but more than a handful of scouts, and NFL analysts have said and reported as much. So even if you are down on him, he's going early to mid first, and the momentum is only going to pick up with the pro day and combine. Especially with so many teams needing a Qb and getting the 5th year on 1st rd picks, it virtually assures he gets taken there.

98% of mocks have Dart going Day 2 or later. And yes, I get that they're just as wrong as anyone else, but we're not talking 50-50 here. NFL.com, PFF, Tank-a-thon, Walter Football -- all recently updated, and none with Dart in the first.

And none of this is to say that it's inconceivable that he goes in round 1. Nothing would surprise me when it comes to QBs. But overwhelming consensus continues to place Dart outside of the 1st.

[DaveBrown74]

Jake Coker and Blake Sims never put up Jaxson Dart stats though. Imagine all the talent they had at Alabama and still were mediocre, now add that talent to ole miss, but they all get injured and he still throws for 4200, 26tds and runs for another 500 yards and 3 tds. His top 2 wrs, top 2 rbs, and TEs were out for the Arkansas game along with 3 olineman so what does he do? Throws for 500, of which 254 yards and 5tds to his Wr3 lol. To an sec opponent.

To be fair in the only year Sims really played, he led the SEC in TDs, yards per attempt, and rating, and he was second in passing yards. Tough to call that mediocre.

Coker I think illustrates your point better but even he really only played one year and put up pretty decent numbers against an SEC schedule.

BTW, to be clear, I like Dart and am leaning fairly bullish on him at the moment. My point was just more general in that I don't think there is any single methodology to apply to these QB prospects that yields consistently reliable predictive results.

[Jclayton92]

98% of mocks have Dart going Day 2 or later. And yes, I get that they're just as wrong as anyone else, but we're not talking 50-50 here. NFL.com, PFF, Tank-a-thon, Walter Football -- all recently updated, and none with Dart in the first.

And none of this is to say that it's inconceivable that he goes in round 1. Nothing would surprise me when it comes to QBs. But overwhelming consensus continues to place Dart outside of the 1st.

No I get that but with the need for qbs as they are, most have him as a top 50 prospect, but when the dust settles someone whether it be the Jets, steelers etc are taking him in the 1st out of need and just the overall value. Same with a CB or pass rusher that may be 40th or ranked 36th as a prospect, they will likely always go in the 1st because it's a premium position.

[Jclayton92]

To be fair in the only year Sims really played, he led the SEC in TDs, yards per attempt, and rating, and he was second in passing yards. Tough to call that mediocre.

Coker I think illustrates your point better but even he really only played one year and put up pretty decent numbers against an SEC schedule.

BTW, to be clear, I like Dart and am leaning fairly bullish on him at the moment. My point was just more general in that I don't think there is any single methodology to apply to these QB prospects that yields consistently reliable predictive results.

No I agree, otherwise every OSU Qb would have been elite. It's why some were down on Stroud, and ultimately why I think the Panthers took young. Helmet scouting at its finest. I was more talking about it in the sense of Daniel Jones who was behind mediocre in college and that continued. It's hard to find a qb outside Josh Allen or Farve who had mediocre college career translate to a great pro career.

Amazing what Lane Kiffin did with a safety isn't it? Blake Sims was a safety at Alabama, and kiffin was like I want him to try Qb and turned him into a 2× national championship winner.

[Jclayton92]

What makes these evaluations hard is that the oc or head coach can talk to the qb for the first 15 seconds of each play. So if you play fast like an ole miss who snaps the ball faster than almost anyone. You can get to the line, have an offensive genius like kiffin breakdown the defensive play call in 10 seconds, before Dart hikes the ball.

[Jclayton92]

Was grinding high school tape today and Wr Boobie Feaster jumped off the screen. He just reclassified from 2027 to 2026, and he's the next Jeremiah Smith/Ryan Williams. I know wrong thread but didn't want to start a new one especially for a high school prospect.

[DaveBrown74]

No I agree, otherwise every OSU Qb would have been elite. It's why some were down on Stroud, and ultimately why I think the Panthers took young. Helmet scouting at its finest. I was more talking about it in the sense of Daniel Jones who was behind mediocre in college and that continued. It's hard to find a qb outside Josh Allen or Farve who had mediocre college career translate to a great pro career.

Amazing what Lane Kiffin did with a safety isn't it? Blake Sims was a safety at Alabama, and kiffin was like I want him to try Qb and turned him into a 2× national championship winner.

Excellent point. The ratio of college QBs who were meh or worse in college but very good or great in the pros to QBs who were very good or great in college but meh or worse in the pros is tiny.

There are only a small handful of the former but a countless list of the latter.

I guess one can reasonably conclude from that reality that it takes a certain degree of either balls or foolishness to draft a QB who was mediocre or bad in college.

[Jclayton92]

Excellent point. The ratio of college QBs who were meh or worse in college but very good or great in the pros to QBs who were very good or great in college but meh or worse in the pros is tiny.

There are only a small handful of the former but a countless list of the latter.

I guess one can reasonably conclude from that reality that it takes a certain degree of either balls or foolishness to draft a QB who was mediocre or bad in college.

Yeah I think the two. Closest to that would be Josh Allen and maybe even Jordan Love, but I genuinely think the organization and talent around them elevated them early until finding their footing. So now not only do you need to find a great qb in the draft but marry them with a great organization to have those Josh Allen results.

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/ChaseDaniel/status/1891896742196502712

[Jclayton92]

https://x.com/ChaseDaniel/status/1891896742196502712

maybe I am missing something but while it was a nice throw, I don't know that it was anything that popped off the screen for me. Ward is miles better than Sanders in my opinion, but the pro comps for him are a little unsettling. I've seen anywhere from Josh Allen, Geno Smith, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield.

[sxdxca38]

https://x.com/ChaseDaniel/status/1891896742196502712

Is it me? Or does Cam Ward come across as being lazy on some of his plays?

[DaveBrown74]

maybe I am missing something but while it was a nice throw, I don't know that it was anything that popped off the screen for me. Ward is miles better than Sanders in my opinion, but the pro comps for him are a little unsettling. I've seen anywhere from Josh Allen, Geno Smith, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield.

Before I read your post I was in the process of typing something similar. I am perplexed as to why anyone would view this as a remarkable play. It looks like a pretty easy throw to me, certainly for any power 5 starting QB. Unless I'm missing something?