Cam Ward VS Shedeur Sanders VS Jaxson Dart

[MightyGiants]

"He's a solid player," texted an AFC director of college scouting. "He's small but also erratic with the ball. He's a gambler. Not sure he has enough magic to have so much gamble. He will be a starter but a bottom 15 one."

"I watched him last year, and this year, he looks the same," said an NFC general manager. "He's a poor man's Russell Wilson to me."

"If he was in last year's class, he would have been the seventh-rated guy behind Bo [Nix]," said an AFC national scout. "He's a distributor, not a gifted athlete. Holds the ball too long, has to get his internal clock better, makes plays off script. I think you could win with him, but not because of him."

Ward looks like a future NFL starter, but team sources are not convinced that Ward will be a top-10 starting quarterback as a pro. Some feel you can win with him, but not necessarily because of him. However, others feel that Ward is a real gamer, a great competitor, and a winner. Thus, Ward has some boom/bust potential for the NFL.

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreports2025cward.php

Last season an area scout told me this about Sanders:


"He won't wow with physical tools, .... But his arm is good enough, especially in the short and intermediary. Mentally, he can operate at incredible speed. He could be the most NFL ready as far as football I.Q.; he bleeds confidence and charisma. He'll own a team immediately because of his competitiveness and obvious advantage having grown up in the rare NFL bubble. Pro ball will not scare him."

Geno Smith. A number of sources have said that Sanders reminds them of Smith in terms of his skill set and passing ability. One area scout who has been studying Sanders for years said that the comp is pretty good. They feel that Sanders is a better athlete than Smith, but Smith was a better deep ball thrower entering the NFL

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreports2025SSanders.php

Jaxson Dart

Gardner Minshew. Team sources have compared Minshew in terms of his skill set and style of play. Minshew is a fringe starter and a very good backup. Dart could be a similar pro.

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreports2025jdart.php

[MightyGiants]

Here is an excellent article breaking down all the stats on the QB prospects and comparing those stats with last year's draft class


Vital statistics: What you need to know about the quarterbacks in the 2025 draft

https://seahawksdraftblog.com/vital-statistics-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-quarterbacks-in-the-draft

[Philosophers]

It's why I'd rather have Fields and go QB next year and n Draft.

[LennG]

I haven't read thru th is entire thread but instead of starting a new one, I have a question on Jason Dart.
I saw a mock today having the Giants drafting him with our 3rd pick. Is there any way he lasts until round 3?

[MightyGiants]

I haven't read thru th is entire thread but instead of starting a new one, I have a question on Jason Dart.
I saw a mock today having the Giants drafting him with our 3rd pick. Is there any way he lasts until round 3?

It's hard to say with certainty, but it seems probable he goes round one.   Failing that, I don't see him making it out of round two.

[Jclayton92]

I haven't read thru th is entire thread but instead of starting a new one, I have a question on Jason Dart.
I saw a mock today having the Giants drafting him with our 3rd pick. Is there any way he lasts until round 3?

I don't think he makes it past the Seahawks at 18 or the Steelers at 21.

[Jclayton92]

Lot of smoke with Sheddur and the Browns the past two days and I can only hope that is the case and it's not bait for the Giants to do something foolish like move up.

[Philosophers]

It's smart that teams consider players in this year's draft and compare them to last year's draft as well as evaluate players in the 2026 Draft so they can gauge how good this crop of prospects are and whether they should wait another year to select for maybe a position.

When I look at the so-called top three QBs in the 2025 Draft, none of them look close to the 2024 crop of 6.  I thought all six could be starting NFL QBs.  I simply don't see that with Ward, Sanders, and Dart.  It's why I advocate a young bridge like Fields who could develop up (sort of the way Geno Smith did with the Seahawks from his earlier days in the NFL).

Our trenches need the most work along with a CB and another WR.  If we improve our trenches and secondary drafting Carter, Graham, Hunter or Johnson in round 1 then add an OL in round 2 that would go a long way for someone like Fields or a rookie in 2026.  Build the team with good players around a future QB rather than add a marginal QB just we need a QB.

[katkavage]

It's smart that teams consider players in this year's draft and compare them to last year's draft as well as evaluate players in the 2026 Draft so they can gauge how good this crop of prospects are and whether they should wait another year to select for maybe a position.

When I look at the so-called top three QBs in the 2025 Draft, none of them look close to the 2024 crop of 6.  I thought all six could be starting NFL QBs.  I simply don't see that with Ward, Sanders, and Dart.  It's why I advocate a young bridge like Fields who could develop up (sort of the way Geno Smith did with the Seahawks from his earlier days in the NFL).

Our trenches need the most work along with a CB and another WR.  If we improve our trenches and secondary drafting Carter, Graham, Hunter or Johnson in round 1 then add an OL in round 2 that would go a long way for someone like Fields or a rookie in 2026.  Build the team with good players around a future QB rather than add a marginal QB just we need a QB.

That's it! Schoen, you are gone. This Philosopher will take your place. And before you start with the common sense team building, find a new coach please.

[Philosophers]

That's it! Schoen, you are gone. This Philosopher will take your place. And before you start with the common sense team building, find a new coach please.

Ha Ha Dabs would have been gone under me.  I did not like his interaction with Wink at the end.  At Michigan, Wink has been seamless and without any drama.

[Jclayton92]

https://x.com/GiantsReport1/status/1892043686180974997


Cam Ward telling Sheddur Sanders that he can't believe they gave Sanders an award for accuracy when all he does is throw check downs and screens while Ward goes deep is hilarious.

[Jclayton92]

Supposedly the Jets have been in contact with the Titans for the #1 pick to grab Cam Ward.

Potential trade being floated

#1 Cam Ward

For

Jets' first-round pick (2025), second-round pick (2025), a first-round pick (2026), a second-round pick (2026) and another second-round pick (2027).


Please oh please oh please football gods, let the Titans take Carter, the Browns take Sheddur, and someone offer us something like this for Ward.

[Jclayton92]

https://fanduel.com/research/ranking-the-top-quarterback-prospects-in-the-2025-nfl-draft-by-their-college-stats

Here's parts of the article  I found it absolutely fascinating, and suggest anyone with time go look at the charts and graphs.

Why Statistics Matter in Evaluating NFL Quarterback Prospects

I've got a model that grades quarterback prospects purely based on their statistical profiles coming out of college. Draft capital will always be key, but we don't have that info yet. And, frankly, the model can guide us pretty well even without it.

Of the 13 quarterbacks in this year's playoffs drafted after 2010 (excluding Matthew Stafford), 8 ranked in the 88th percentile or higher of my model among quarterbacks invited to the combine since 2010. This includes Jayden Daniels, who it tabbed as the best quarterback prospect across those 15 seasons entering last year's draft. The guy he replaced at the top -- Hurts -- just won Super Bowl MVP.

The model considers a player's age (on Day 1 of the NFL Draft), experience (number of games with 10-plus pass attempts), and final-year efficiency (their Total QBR and adjusted yards per attempt, or AY/A). In general, you want the youngest, most experienced, and most efficient guy you can get.

Since 2010, 49 quarterbacks have been first-round picks. Of those 49, 14 have finished in the top 10 in Total Net Expected Points (NEP) in one-third of their qualified seasons. Total NEP is numberFire's EPA metric, which factors in expected points added as both a passer and a rusher and deducts expected points lost due to sacks. These 14 guys are the ideal of what you want if you're taking a quarterback early.

This leaves us with 35 other first-rounders. Of that group, seven players haven't yet had three years in the league, so we won't label them as disappointments yet. This trims our group of less successful first-rounders down to 28.

Those 28 -- on average -- were older, less efficient, and less experienced than the hits coming out of college, leading to their being viewed less favorably by the model.

2025 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings

1. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Age: 21.9 (83rd percentile)

Games: 45 (82nd percentiile)

AY/A: 11.5 (96th percentile)

Total QBR: 86.3 (88th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 97th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Jalen Hurts

You don't often run into a prospect who checks all three key boxes: young, experienced, and efficient.

Jaxson Dart does so emphatically.

Since 2010, only eight players invited to the combine have:

Been younger than 22 on Day 1 of the draft
Had 30-plus games with 10-plus pass attempts
Recorded a final-year Total QBR of at least 80.0
Those eight players are:

Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Jalen Hurts
Trevor Lawrence
Deshaun Watson
Jared Goff
Marcus Mariota
Teddy Bridgewater

Half of those guys are on the list of first-round picks who have been top 10 in Total NEP in one-third of their seasons. Another is a second-rounder who -- again -- just won Super Bowl MVP.

Dart will join them this year, clearing both the experience and efficiency benchmarks by a wide margin.

When you blend it all together, Dart winds up being the seventh-ranked quarterback in the history of the model, which currently includes 259 players. Of the players ahead of him, five wound up being top-five picks, and the other was Hurts. So not only have these kinds of players hit at a high rate, but they tend to go high in the draft.

That's worth keeping in mind once more NFL Draft props are posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The obvious retort to all of this is that Dart's stats are misleading. He played in a Lane Kiffin offense where Dart used play action on 53.2% of his drop backs, according to PFF. It led to a bunch of open receivers and easy throws, which would juice up his Total QBR and AY/A.

A couple of issues with that.

First, as laid out above, Dart's resume goes beyond his efficiency. Earning starts as a true freshman at a Power 5 school and then starting three years in the SEC -- all at such a young age -- is a huge endorsement of his talent. Coaches wanted him on the field immediately.

Second, Dart is lightyears beyond other Kiffin quarterbacks in the draft.

Only two other times has a quarterback who had Kiffin as his primary playcaller in his final year of college been invited to the NFL combine. Those are Matt Corral (2022) and Matt Barkley (2013). Obviously, neither became a quality NFL player. The gap between them and Dart is quite large.

2. Cam Ward, Miami
Age: 22.9 (57th percentile)

Games: 57 (98th percentiile)

AY/A: 10.5 (90th percentile)

Total QBR: 88.7 (93rd percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 96th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Baker Mayfield


3. Will Howard, Ohio State
Age: 23.6 (25th percentile)

Games: 45 (82nd percentiile)

AY/A: 10.1 (86th percentile)

Total QBR: 89.6 (94th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 83rd percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Kevin Hogan


4. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Age: 23.2 (43rd percentile)

Games: 50 (93rd percentiile)

AY/A: 9.3 (69th percentile)

Total QBR: 75.5 (59th percentile)

Pre-Draft Model Rank: 70th percentile

Top Statistical Comp: Kenny Pickett




All of this backs up what Ed and several others of us that have been high on Dart have been saying for awhile now. Dart breaks the model, of which has been really accurate in deciphering how great a Qb will be in the NFL. It is also high on Ward, but even more alarming is Sheddur Sanders who will be 23 by the draft, the numbers hate Sanders.

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/BrownSpiderCLE/status/1892303971718414363

https://x.com/BrownSpiderCLE/status/1892303971718414363

[MightyGiants]

Greg (whose opinions I respect immensely) didn't seem all that excited by Dart