I went through 4 mock draft scenerios playing with various QBs

[MightyGiants]

I went through 4 mock draft scenarios playing with which QB to draft.

1) I drafted Jaxson Dart 3rd overall.  No playing around, nothing cute, just grab your QB and then play the rest of the draft.

2) I traded up to get Cam Ward.  The price is on the better side (per Daniel Jeremiah) in that I only had to give up a 2nd this year and the 2nd from next year.

3) If my gamble fails and Dart gets taken, the fallback is Tyler Schough (you could put in Milroe, or another tier 2 QB if you like) with pick 34.

4) I gambled and let the Dart fall in the draft (I traded back up with the Bengals at 17 so the Steelers didn't grab him.  I had to give up the high 2nd and 3rd rounders and a 3rd next year to pull that off. 



1) to pair with Dart at 3 I got a future 3 tech DT to pair with Dex and a tackle to be the swing with an eye to starting at RT, a HB to pair with Tracy and a rotational edge rusher



2)  In this scenario I was able to get the same tackle, then a big DT to rotate with Dex, and a rotational edge rusher.



3) In this scenario I get Carter to be an elite Edge Rush, the tackle, and DI at least rotational and a the running back to team with Tracy.



4) In this scenario I get Carter, the big DI to backup Dex and a lesser offensive lineman

[DaveBrown74]

Interesting scenarios Rich.

I know you have another thread about this, but personally I think that if the Giants like Dart enough to where they would trade past the Steelers all the way up from 34 to 17 (risking the Steelers not anticipating this and moving up a few spots or someone else doing that), then that means they seriously like him, and at that point you might as well just take him 3rd. You wouldn't do the above if you thought he was just going to be a "decent" QB. You'd do that because you view him as potential franchise QB. If the Giants were to have that view on him, they might as well just take 3rd overall.

By the way, to be very clear, I'm not saying they SHOULD take Dart third overall. I'm just pointing out that they might as well take him third overall if they want him so badly that they're willing to go from 34th to 17th, which carries with it (1) a big price and (2) material risk that you may be unable to get him.

I think if they like Dart, but not enough to take him third or anywhere near there, then another play would be to wait and see if he falls to pick number 23/24 or so. At that point, a trade-up might be more sensible. I'd probably only recommend this though if they also like someone else almost as much that has a very good chance of making it to them at 34. Because there is never any guarantee you're going to be able to pull off a trade. High 2nd to low 1st is often doable though because the teams picking towards the end of the first round are usually very strong rosters that don't mind the idea of getting some extra picks while not giving up too much ground in the draft.

In short, I think if a team loves a QB and views him as a franchise QB who can lead the team for over a decade, trying to thread the needle in the first round is generally a pretty questionable move. In their mind, he's either the guy or he is not. If he's not, they shouldn't be trading up to get him 17th either. In fact, I'm not sure I'd take him 34th if I didn't have a very strong view on him either.

[MightyGiants]

Interesting scenarios Rich.

I know you have another thread about this, but personally I think that if the Giants like Dart enough to where they would trade past the Steelers all the way up from 34 to 17 (risking the Steelers not anticipating this and moving up a few spots or someone else doing that), then that means they seriously like him, and at that point you might as well just take him 3rd. You wouldn't do the above if you thought he was just going to be a "decent" QB. You'd do that because you view him as potential franchise QB. If the Giants were to have that view on him, they might as well just take 3rd overall.

By the way, to be very clear, I'm not saying they SHOULD take Dart third overall. I'm just pointing out that they might as well take him third overall if they want him so badly that they're willing to go from 34th to 17th, which carries with it (1) a big price and (2) material risk that you may be unable to get him.

I think if they like Dart, but not enough to take him third or anywhere near there, then another play would be to wait and see if he falls to pick number 23/24 or so. At that point, a trade-up might be more sensible. I'd probably only recommend this though if they also like someone else almost as much that has a very good chance of making it to them at 34. Because there is never any guarantee you're going to be able to pull off a trade. High 2nd to low 1st is often doable though because the teams picking towards the end of the first round are usually very strong rosters that don't mind the idea of getting some extra picks while not giving up too much ground in the draft.

In short, I think if a team loves a QB and views him as a franchise QB who can lead the team for over a decade, trying to thread the needle in the first round is generally a pretty questionable move. In their mind, he's either the guy or he is not. If he's not, they shouldn't be trading up to get him 17th either. In fact, I'm not sure I'd take him 34th if I didn't have a very strong view on him either.

I agree with your analysis, Jeff.  I conducted this exercise as a way to better understand the scenarios.  Often we look at it as well, if I wait on drafting Dart, I get Carter.  However, it's worth noting that the picks traded away have value as well.  So I figured that by doing this you get a chance to compare the whole package for the various scenarios. 

Based on my looking at the scenarios, I favor either drafting Dart at three or the trade up scenario (if they can get it at the price I listed).  I am not sure I would want to part with a third rounder as well.

[DaveBrown74]

I agree with your analysis, Jeff.  I conducted this exercise as a way to better understand the scenarios.  Often we look at it as well, if I wait on drafting Dart, I get Carter.  However, it's worth noting that the picks traded away have value as well.  So I figured that by doing this you get a chance to compare the whole package for the various scenarios. 

Based on my looking at the scenarios, I favor either drafting Dart at three or the trade up scenario (if they can get it at the price I listed).  I am not sure I would want to part with a third rounder as well.

I agree with your analysis, Jeff.  I conducted this exercise as a way to better understand the scenarios.  Often we look at it as well, if I wait on drafting Dart, I get Carter.  However, it's worth noting that the picks traded away have value as well.  So I figured that by doing this you get a chance to compare the whole package for the various scenarios. 

Based on my looking at the scenarios, I favor either drafting Dart at three or the trade up scenario (if they can get it at the price I listed).  I am not sure I would want to part with a third rounder as well.

Makes sense.

Is Dart presently your favorite QB in this draft?

[MightyGiants]

Makes sense.

Is Dart presently your favorite QB in this draft?

My number one is Ward.  Dart is number 2.  The other reason for the exercise is to see if the trade up to Ward (assuming the Titans would be game) is worth the cost of extra picks spent.

[katkavage]

Maybe I'm missing it, but I see as much interest in Dart by the Giants as they had for Nix last year. I see most of their interest in Ward, Sanders, and Milroe.

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/FiresideGiants/status/1901292076907557208

[katkavage]

Until they aren't. Or unless Tennessee has no intention of moving.

[Jclayton92]

I don't want a trade period. There aren't a ton of blue chip guys, but there are like 50 guys with late 1st/2nd rd grade and having 5 picks in the top 105, can give us a ton of quality players.

[Philosophers]

I don't want a trade period. There aren't a ton of blue chip guys, but there are like 50 guys with late 1st/2nd rd grade and having 5 picks in the top 105, can give us a ton of quality players.

Having 5 picks in top 105 as low as we are drafting and being as bad as the Giants are necessitates acquiring 4 starters in this draft period.  Any less and Giants should fire people. 

[Jclayton92]

Having 5 picks in top 105 as low as we are drafting and being as bad as the Giants are necessitates acquiring 4 starters in this draft period.  Any less and Giants should fire people. 

It depends on the players, like if we draft a DT they notoriously don't break through until year 3. Some CBs get it immediately but some take a year.

[Bob In PA]

Rich: I like version four (the final one shown). All things considered, the best they can do (assuming they don't like Sanders or Ward) is take their favorite non-QB with Pick Three and look to trade up into the bottom ten of the first round for a QB (assuming there is one left whom they like and believe is worthy of going in the lower 1st round).

If the latter half of that strategy fails or is too expensive in terms of draft picks lost, then try to do the same thing in the second round (i.e., take the best non-QB available with their existing 2nd-round pick and follow with a trade up into the mid-second round for a QB (assuming there is one left that they like and who they believe is worthy of going that high).

This approach avoids the trap of going "too-far-out-of-their-way" to get a QB. This IMO is definitely NOT the year to throw caution (and value) to the wind to obtain a QB. It's unfortunate they were dealt a poor hand, but it's what I refer to as "typical NY Giants luck." In a year when aggression is probably ill-advised they should be more concerned with not blundering than with reaching for players at positions of need.

Bob

[kartanoman]

Rich: I like version four (the final one shown). All things considered, the best they can do (assuming they don't like Sanders or Ward) is take their favorite non-QB with Pick Three and look to trade up into the bottom ten of the first round for a QB (assuming there is one left whom they like and believe is worthy of going in the lower 1st round).

If the latter half of that strategy fails or is too expensive in terms of draft picks lost, then try to do the same thing in the second round (i.e., take the best non-QB available with their existing 2nd-round pick and follow with a trade up into the mid-second round for a QB (assuming there is one left that they like and who they believe is worthy of going that high).

This approach avoids the trap of going "too-far-out-of-their-way" to get a QB. This IMO is definitely NOT the year to throw caution (and value) to the wind to obtain a QB. It's unfortunate they were dealt a poor hand, but it's what I refer to as "typical NY Giants luck." In a year when aggression is probably ill-advised they should be more concerned with not blundering than with reaching for players at positions of need.

Bob

Absolutely @Bob In PA  !

When you actually sit down, and look at the number of quality players that are going to be available in rounds three, four and five, you'd be crazy to give away draft capital this season to gain a QB that you still may not totally be in love with. Why bother then?

It's like giving up the chance to go get Cam Skattebo from AZ State here who, as long as he stays healthy, is going to rock the world of the luck team who drafts him. Running with a 'tude! Who wouldn't want that? The Giants had two of them (i.e. Jacobs and Bradshaw) doing it together and they, along with Ward, set records in 2008. I miss those days when they ran at will and the Giants couldn't be stopped for most of that season.

Having a Skattebo join Tracy in the backfield, behind a revamped offensive line, would buy the Giants time until their QB opportunity better presents itself in 2026.

A QB shouldn't be the end-all of a draft which could seriously help them build up talent which is otherwise lacking. This they cannot lose sight of. But if he's there, by all means get him at pick three or, if they know he can be had at a lower round, then so be it and good luck. But they have to come out of this draft with talent that will improve the team overall. They cannot afford to fall further behind their division rivals whom all of them left the Giants in the dust last season.

Peace!

[Stringer Bell]

I'm not a fan of any of these scenarios / drafts.

[MightyGiants]

I'm not a fan of any of these scenarios / drafts.

What are you hoping to see?