Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 15, 2024, 07:33:11 PMNobody knows where NFL teams have this guy. Whether they have him in the top 5 or a late second round value is unknown. And we won't know until the draft.

Of course, click-bait artists and self-promoters on social media will continue to feed off of the gullible and confirmation-biased in the interim.

Enjoy!

Couldn't this be said of all the QBs being discussed?

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 15, 2024, 07:56:22 PMCouldn't this be said of all the QBs being discussed?

Yes, for sure.

I haven't seen 16 page threads about Bo Nix or Michael Penix though. Or any of the consensus top three prospects.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 15, 2024, 08:03:03 PMYes, for sure.

I haven't seen 16 page threads about Bo Nix or Michael Penix though. Or any of the consensus top three prospects.

How does consensus matter?  If you are going to be consistent, consensus among draftniks is no more meaningful than reports alleging how teams value a prospect

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 15, 2024, 08:16:39 PMHow does consensus matter?  If you are going to be consistent, consensus among draftniks is no more meaningful than reports alleging how teams value a prospect

My point is simply that nobody has any clue where these QBs will get drafted. Yes, one can make an educated guess that will often be right, but tweets like "NFL teams have QB X or QB Y rated much higher than the fans do" are pure drivel that are sourced solely from the person writing them. Teams don't reveal what they think of draft prospects to anyone. Those discussions are airtight. Claims that an individual is "a lot higher on teams boards than people think" are meaningless. But anyone can believe whatever they want of course.

Unfortunately, JJ McCarthy is very difficult to get a good evaluation. It's not his fault. It was the system he was playing in where he wasn't asked to be the driver of that Offense. Sure, you can look at his mechanics and you can determine his other attributes but in very limited amount of snaps. Out of all the QB's in this draft he never stood out as a player who made huge throws or great eye popping plays.

He's going to need a team where he can sit and develop for at least one season.

There is a huge jump going from College to the NFL. He has the ability to work within a system and play in structure, so that's a big plus for him. He just hasn't been exposed to enough game situations to be a day one starter.

Perhaps he may be a good pick for the Giants since Daniel Jones will be the starter in 2024. But not at the number six pick. There are however a lot of teams looking for a QB and I don't see him falling to the second round.

There are three QBs in this draft that are at a level above the rest. That is Williams, Maye and Daniels. Those three are day one starters or close to it. Daniels will need a team where the Offense can be built around him. Same for Calib. Maye has the complete package and would thrive here in NY. Bo Nix has great talent too but even though he's the most experienced, he's a checkdowns QB too and misses opportunity downfield and when he runs, he loses sight of anything else. Penix unfortunately has that injury history. I would rule him and Daniels out for the Giants after their experience with Jones.

All of them will have an adjustment from working Under Center, to the difference in the Hash and where the ball is placed, to motion, to reading progressions, complex defenses and Clap to Cadence.

I have to say that I would be thrilled to get Maye or Daniels and if Williams gets past their mental toughness evaluation, he's a potential generational talent. I would be ok with Nix, Penix and McCarthy trading up from round two to mid first round.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 15, 2024, 08:27:53 PMMy point is simply that nobody has any clue where these QBs will get drafted. Yes, one can make an educated guess that will often be right, but tweets like "NFL teams have QB X or QB Y rated much higher than the fans do" are pure drivel that are sourced solely from the person writing them. Teams don't reveal what they think of draft prospects to anyone. Those discussions are airtight. Claims that an individual is "a lot higher on teams boards than people think" are meaningless. But anyone can believe whatever they want of course.

There are hundreds of scouts in the NFL, and not all of them have the discipline of GMs and assistant GMs or the head of scouting in terms of discipline not talking to the press.   In the case of QB teams not looking to draft, one may not feel any need to keep their views of this QB class secret.

That said, this is the start of lying season.  While some reporters have solid sources, there are also many legit NFL sources putting out deliberate misinformation (like what he witnessed when the word was the Giants had soured on Kayvon).

So while we can't take reports of how NFL teams view a particular prospect as gospel, it's also not just "drivel" made up by the author.

Quote from: Ed Vette on February 15, 2024, 09:49:22 PMUnfortunately, JJ McCarthy is very difficult to get a good evaluation. It's not his fault. It was the system he was playing in where he wasn't asked to be the driver of that Offense. Sure, you can look at his mechanics and you can determine his other attributes but in very limited amount of snaps. Out of all the QB's in this draft he never stood out as a player who made huge throws or great eye popping plays.

He's going to need a team where he can sit and develop for at least one season.

There is a huge jump going from College to the NFL. He has the ability to work within a system and play in structure, so that's a big plus for him. He just hasn't been exposed to enough game situations to be a day one starter.

Perhaps he may be a good pick for the Giants since Daniel Jones will be the starter in 2024. But not at the number six pick. There are however a lot of teams looking for a QB and I don't see him falling to the second round.

There are three QBs in this draft that are at a level above the rest. That is Williams, Maye and Daniels. Those three are day one starters or close to it. Daniels will need a team where the Offense can be built around him. Same for Calib. Maye has the complete package and would thrive here in NY. Bo Nix has great talent too but even though he's the most experienced, he's a checkdowns QB too and misses opportunity downfield and when he runs, he loses sight of anything else. Penix unfortunately has that injury history. I would rule him and Daniels out for the Giants after their experience with Jones.

All of them will have an adjustment from working Under Center, to the difference in the Hash and where the ball is placed, to motion, to reading progressions, complex defenses and Clap to Cadence.

I have to say that I would be thrilled to get Maye or Daniels and if Williams gets past their mental toughness evaluation, he's a potential generational talent. I would be ok with Nix, Penix and McCarthy trading up from round two to mid first round.

Ed - I actually think JJ is more NFL ready than either Williams, Maye or Daniels as he is world's ahead of them in the mental aspect of reading defenses, processing info quickly, going through progressions and making a throw.  I'd rather have him start day 1 than any of those three, however, I think the best course of action is to let all four sit for a bit and slowly get into games.

Quote from: Philosophers on February 16, 2024, 10:50:28 AMEd - I actually think JJ is more NFL ready than either Williams, Maye or Daniels as he is world's ahead of them in the mental aspect of reading defenses, processing info quickly, going through progressions and making a throw.  I'd rather have him start day 1 than any of those three, however, I think the best course of action is to let all four sit for a bit and slowly get into games.

Agreed, JJ played in an NFL style offense and against much tougher college defenses.

I am guessing that playing for Harbaugh is as good a prep for the NFL as any college QB has ever had. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 16, 2024, 11:06:32 AMI am guessing that playing for Harbaugh is as good a prep for the NFL as any college QB has ever had. 

Especially facing the toughest (by far) defenses as any of the top QB prospects.

Why is Maye more NFL ready? He regressed last year and Daniels had only one good year of college - and that type of game he played is different than then NFL style.

I like Williams and feel he can come right in and play since he had 3 really good years of college play.

But McCarthy probably can read defenses better than all the other QBs so he has a big advantage.

No QB in this draft reads the defenses and progressions better than Drake Maye and he's the best most accurate deep passer too. His footwork will need consistency at the mext level.

No passer throws with greater touch and anticipation than Daniels and he's a legitimate comparison to Hurts and more of a scoring threat than Jackson. His arm is just adequate not great.

Williams is short and there have been many his size that have struggled at this level. Tua is an exception. He's not a pocket passer and is best moving.

You all can have your opinions about McCarthy. I didn't say he would fail, I said it's difficult to evaluate him. He averaged 22 passes a game... Twenty Two! Just wrap your heads around that. 22 touchdowns for an effective game manager.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 15, 2024, 07:33:11 PMNobody knows where NFL teams have this guy. Whether they have him in the top 5 or a late second round value is unknown. And we won't know until the draft.

Of course, click-bait artists and self-promoters on social media will continue to feed off of the gullible and confirmation-biased in the interim.

Enjoy!

Be careful, you don't want to sound too much like me. It just fun, you know?

In any case, it does seem that whether it achieves a consensus of sheep, goats, or us chickens, the media wags now seem to favor Denver at 12 as McCarthy's landing spot. While that's perfectly reasonable, at least for now, it's of no matter to me.

I must say, however, that I am surprised there isn't more enthusiasm for it among Broncos fans.
I don't know why that should be except for a thought or feeling that Michigan QBs have tended to come up short in the NFL far more often than not. Huh? Wasn't Tom Brady a Michigan QB? Or does that only apply to those Drafted in Round 1 with Harbaugh in 1987 having been the only one to date? Still, it would seem rather silly.

Cheers!

Quote from: Ed Vette on February 16, 2024, 01:14:01 PMNo QB in this draft reads the defenses and progressions better than Drake Maye and he's the best most accurate deep passer too. His footwork will need consistency at the mext level.

No passer throws with greater touch and anticipation than Daniels and he's a legitimate comparison to Hurts and more of a scoring threat than Jackson. His arm is just adequate not great.

Williams is short and there have been many his size that have struggled at this level. Tua is an exception. He's not a pocket passer and is best moving.

You all can have your opinions about McCarthy. I didn't say he would fail, I said it's difficult to evaluate him. He averaged 22 passes a game... Twenty Two! Just wrap your heads around that. 22 touchdowns for an effective game manager.

Tom Brady averaged 16.53 attempts per game his last 2 seasons at Michigan

Josh Allen had bit more than JJ,s  at 24.6 attempts per game and overall had less college attempts (655 to 714 for McCarthy)

All of the QB prospects have questions but I believe Maye and Daniels have more than Williams and Mccarthy.

Maye- Lost to any team that was even remotely good this past season and the ACC was way down. His footwork as, as well as his decision making and accuracy come into question when he doesn't have a perfect pocket. I also really question the offense that he played in. Longo his OC every year but this past year really dumbs down the playbook to the point that he only runs 6-8 plays a game and yes they put up volume or did but so did Sam Howell under Longo. In fact Mayes best and Howells best in NC are eerily similar. I just don't think Maye has the moxy, to lead a team, some give him Herbert as a comp and I think that's his ceiling but he could just be howell 2.0

Daniels- While he got better every single year it took year 5 and multiple elite weapons to put up the stats that he did. Has he already hit his ceiling? Ontop of that his processing and short/intermediate game still leave a lot to be desired.