Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Ed Vette on March 13, 2024, 11:32:06 AMThe price was high but the Salary Cap in 2026 will be near $300 million. Burns will still be in his prime. So should the Giants.

True.  Right now Dex and Burns cap hit for that year is set to be about 53 million. A lot can change that.  Thibodeaux is not under contract that far out.  He would either be under a 5th year option, not on the team or extended. 

So assuming no restructures and that cap number the 53 million is about 17.5% of the cap space.  Worrying about that now is probably getting way ahead of ourselves, but I hope someone in the organization is looking at that. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2024, 12:00:43 PMTrue.  Right now Dex and Burns cap hit for that year is set to be about 53 million. A lot can change that.  Thibodeaux is not under contract that far out.  He would either be under a 5th year option, not on the team or extended. 

So assuming no restructures and that cap number the 53 million is about 17.5% of the cap space.  Worrying about that now is probably getting way ahead of ourselves, but I hope someone in the organization is looking at that. 

Thomas, Dex and Burns represent $69mm or 26% of the 2024 Cap. In 2026, Spotrac anticipates the cap will be $361mm so their Cap will be 71.7mm or 20% of the Cap. If Jones is still here, his cap hit would be $58mm or 16% of the cap. The estimated Cap Space that far ahead is $162mm and that's with Waller's $17mm but without the 5th-year option of Thibs and Neal. They look good from here.

I'll add this:  We regularly see ascending teams like Houston last year,  that have a ton of cap space to fill roster gaps or re-sign guys.  Trading for and signing big names puts teams in the situation that they will never be both ascending and have a lot of cap space. 

Houston's situation is ideal and I realize certain things have to happen to get there but it doesn't make it easier to swallow that on order to get competitive the team had to spend big bucks.  Just like having a QB on a 1st contract is a big advantage so is having players at other premium positions.   

The Giants have let those years with Thomas and Dex go by without making any improvements and now have added Burns.  There is just something about having a lot of big contracts on a team that hasnt won many games that bothers me.  Right or wrong that's part of my issue with this.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 13, 2024, 12:28:58 PMI'll add this:  We regularly see ascending teams like Houston last year,  that have a ton of cap space to fill roster gaps or re-sign guys.  Trading for and signing big names puts teams in the situation that they will never be both ascending and have a lot of cap space. 

Houston's situation is ideal and I realize certain things have to happen to get there but it doesn't make it easier to swallow that on order to get competitive the team had to spend big bucks.  Just like having a QB on a 1st contract is a big advantage so is having players at other premium positions.   

The Giants have let those years with Thomas and Dex go by without making any improvements and now have added Burns.  There is just something about having a lot of big contracts on a team that hasnt won many games that bothers me.  Right or wrong that's part of my issue with this.

I think the core or root of the problem is the turnover in the Coaching Staff. I don't need to explain to you what I mean by this. I'm sure you know.

.

Pretty good company.

It seems every year that fans try to figure out how the cap money is spent and get all twisted up worrying about something that only a team of black magic CPA's understands and can figure it out and manipulate things...no matter what fan's try to come up with. All teams do whatever the hell they want and leave it to the accountants to deal with jockeying the numbers. To me, the biggest waste of time a fan can get caught up in, is trying to figure out the cap and worse, worrying about it. People in the organization get 6 figure salaries to do the "worrying", and they ALWAYS find a solution

Wr dont need the NFL sack leader.  We need a top 8 sack leader.  Someone who puts constant pressure.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 08:47:58 AMHow do you feel about the Brian Burns trade and its impact on the Giants' long- and short-term term?

Rich: It's what I call "the poor's man's extra first-round draft pick."

They get a 1st-rounder, "losing" his rookie-contract playing years but gaining the knowledge that he truly was worth a 1st-round pick (and not injury-prone). In exchange they give up a very useful pick (close to a low first-rounder), but one that with is wrought with the question-marks that come with any high pick (i.e., the draft is a crap-shoot).

All in all, I lean toward good deal. For those don't know, Burns was the player drafted before the Giants "got stuck with" a player many here complained about post-draft, whose name is Dexter Lawrence II. I truly believe the Giants wanted either of those guys in that draft... and now they have both.

Bob

This is what I'm hoping for.  I don't think 2023 was a particularly good year for Burns coming after his two prior years which were pretty good. Clearly, in my opinion, he's not currently worth what he's being paid.  But, he will draw enough attention to make Thibs better and make defenses focus on one of Burns or Dexter.  They just may get the pass rush they had in the SB years not that long ago and that would be welcome.  On the while, I'm in favor of the trade, just not in love with it.

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 13, 2024, 08:47:58 AMHow do you feel about the Brian Burns trade and its impact on the Giants' long- and short-term term?


The Giants get:

Brian Burns
2024 5th round pick (No. 166)

The Panthers get:

2024 2nd round pick (No. 39)
2024 5th round pick (No. 141)
2025 5th round pick

Seems like Overthecap must have changed some of the numbers. Was wondering how they posted it prior to the league new year.

When this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 10:47:34 AMWhen this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

Matt,

You made a compelling argument to the point where I have to agree with you.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 10:47:34 AMWhen this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

There are a couple of big differences.  The first being that Leonard Williams was a mid-season trade when he was about to hit free agency if the Giant were so enamored with him, they could have simply given him the same ridiculous contract the eventually gave him anyway, and saved the picks. 

The next is that the Giants were something like 1-7 at the time of the trade.  If they are entering the trade market at that point it SHOULD be to get rid of guys and collect draft picks, not the other way around.  The Burns trade was during the offseason when, presumably, the team at least has hope to be much better than what they were at the time of the Williams trade.  We knew that team stunk out loud, this 2024 team might not especially if they can draft a competent QB.

Another difference is that Williams to that point, had been nothing special.  A solid though not spectacular DT.  It didn't make any sort of sense to make that trade at that time for a player of that level.  Burns has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL from the minute he walked in the door.  This is an elite level pass rusher.  The 2024 Giants are going to be a defense first team, that much is clear, and he's better than pretty much any free agent the Giants could have reasonably acquired on defense. 

The Giants went on a 3-game winning streak with Tommmy Freaking Devito at QB last season.  This is not a team like the Panthers or even the 1-7 Giants from a few years ago that has no real hope of competing any time soon. 

When they made that trade for Williams you knew, well everybody but Gettleman anyway, that the following things were going to happen: 

1) they will not make the playoffs that season and pick again in the top 10 (only now without a high 3rd round pick)
2) they will re-sign Williams to a mega-contract that he hasn't earned because they can't let him walk after making that trade and Williams and his team know they have absolutely all of the leverage
3) by the time the Giants are good again, Williams won't be on the roster.

Anybody could have reasonably predicted those 3 things happening immediately after the deal was announced and that's exactly what happened.  I don't know if the Giants are going to be awful next year or not.  It depends on the QB position because I think the defense is going to be pretty good.  But they have a real shot at being good in 2025 if they can find even average QB play by then.  So Burns absolutely figures into that.

Quote from: Gmo11 on March 22, 2024, 11:36:25 AMThere are a couple of big differences.  The first being that Leonard Williams was a mid-season trade when he was about to hit free agency if the Giant were so enamored with him, they could have simply given him the same ridiculous contract the eventually gave him anyway, and saved the picks. 

The next is that the Giants were something like 1-7 at the time of the trade.  If they are entering the trade market at that point it SHOULD be to get rid of guys and collect draft picks, not the other way around.  The Burns trade was during the offseason when, presumably, the team at least has hope to be much better than what they were at the time of the Williams trade.  We knew that team stunk out loud, this 2024 team might not especially if they can draft a competent QB.

Another difference is that Williams to that point, had been nothing special.  A solid though not spectacular DT.  It didn't make any sort of sense to make that trade at that time for a player of that level.  Burns has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL from the minute he walked in the door.  This is an elite level pass rusher.  The 2024 Giants are going to be a defense first team, that much is clear, and he's better than pretty much any free agent the Giants could have reasonably acquired on defense. 


The Giants went on a 3-game winning streak with Tommmy Freaking Devito at QB last season.  This is not a team like the Panthers or even the 1-7 Giants from a few years ago that has no real hope of competing any time soon. 

When they made that trade for Williams you knew, well everybody but Gettleman anyway, that the following things were going to happen: 

1) they will not make the playoffs that season and pick again in the top 10 (only now without a high 3rd round pick)
2) they will re-sign Williams to a mega-contract that he hasn't earned because they can't let him walk after making that trade and Williams and his team know they have absolutely all of the leverage
3) by the time the Giants are good again, Williams won't be on the roster.

Anybody could have reasonably predicted those 3 things happening immediately after the deal was announced and that's exactly what happened.  I don't know if the Giants are going to be awful next year or not.  It depends on the QB position because I think the defense is going to be pretty good.  But they have a real shot at being good in 2025 if they can find even average QB play by then.  So Burns absolutely figures into that.

Why didn't they let Burns hit FA?  They could have paid him that big contract just like Williams.  The team went 6-11 this year, and started 2-8 rather than 1-7.  So because the Giants did it midseason rather than post-season that somehow makes the deal better?  Even though the team stunk both years?  Would the Burns trade have been worse if they made it when they were 2-8? Or the Williams trade better if it was just before he became a UFA?

What makes Burns "an elite pass rusher"  He was not even in the top 25 for sacks last year, he wasn't even close. He had 8 sacks last year, good to tie him for 40th best in the NFL.  The same amount as household names DJ Wonnum and Malcom Koonce.   

As for Williams being nothing special, I would very much make that argument for Burns who has averaged 9 sacks a season for 5 years and grades out as a below average run defender.  He has had over 10 sacks in a season once in 5 years.  Williams didn't have as many sacks, but his run defense was a lot better than that for the Jets.

Weren't two of the 3 games they won in that streak against Washington and NE?  Not exactly murderers row on the schedule there.

Sure hope you are right that this team is that close to competing.  I doubt it will be in 2024.  Even if they draft the next Patrick Mahomes I doubt the offense will be very good in that QBs rookie season.  You seem to have a lot of confidence in this team being good soon but I don't know where that comes from.  The current FO hasn't drafted anyone that jumped off the page as great in their first two years.  Maybe Banks will be that guy.  Thibodeaux did better last year, but hasn't lived up to where most had hope his level of play would be. The FA's that have been signed haven't been very good.

 The QB you seem to think that is going to lift the team needs to last to the 6th pick with at least 3 QB needy teams drafting in front of the Giants.  The current starter is coming off an ACL and his legs have been more a part of his game than his arm, the backup has been a turnover machine.  Further if they draft that QB at 6, they likely won't get a difference maker at a playmaking position in this draft. 

I would argue its likely:

1) The Giants won't make the playoffs next year and will pick in the top 10 again (only they won't have a high 2nd round pick this year)
2) They already signed Burns to a mega contract that he hasn't earned. (Williams deal made him the 7th highest paid DT, Burns makes him the 2nd highest paid EDGE and he is not the 2nd best EDGE in this league).
3) By the time the Giants are good again, one of these things will happen:  Burns will be a cap casualty, Dex will be a cap casualty or they will not sign Thibodeaux because they have already invested almost 60 million/year in the DL. 

I think any reasonable person could say those things are all very possible.

I wish I had your optimism.