Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 12:21:06 PMWhy didn't they let Burns hit FA?  They could have paid him that big contract just like Williams.  The team went 6-11 this year, and started 2-8 rather than 1-7.  So because the Giants did it midseason rather than post-season that somehow makes the deal better?  Even though the team stunk both years?  Would the Burns trade have been worse if they made it when they were 2-8? Or the Williams trade better if it was just before he became a UFA?

What makes Burns "an elite pass rusher"  He was not even in the top 25 for sacks last year, he wasn't even close. He had 8 sacks last year, good to tie him for 40th best in the NFL.  The same amount as household names DJ Wonnum and Malcom Koonce.   

As for Williams being nothing special, I would very much make that argument for Burns who has averaged 9 sacks a season for 5 years and grades out as a below average run defender.  He has had over 10 sacks in a season once in 5 years.  Williams didn't have as many sacks, but his run defense was a lot better than that for the Jets.

Weren't two of the 3 games they won in that streak against Washington and NE?  Not exactly murderers row on the schedule there.

Sure hope you are right that this team is that close to competing.  I doubt it will be in 2024.  Even if they draft the next Patrick Mahomes I doubt the offense will be very good in that QBs rookie season.  You seem to have a lot of confidence in this team being good soon but I don't know where that comes from.  The current FO hasn't drafted anyone that jumped off the page as great in their first two years.  Maybe Banks will be that guy.  Thibodeaux did better last year, but hasn't lived up to where most had hope his level of play would be. The FA's that have been signed haven't been very good.

 The QB you seem to think that is going to lift the team needs to last to the 6th pick with at least 3 QB needy teams drafting in front of the Giants.  The current starter is coming off an ACL and his legs have been more a part of his game than his arm, the backup has been a turnover machine.  Further if they draft that QB at 6, they likely won't get a difference maker at a playmaking position in this draft. 

I would argue its likely:

1) The Giants won't make the playoffs next year and will pick in the top 10 again (only they won't have a high 2nd round pick this year)
2) They already signed Burns to a mega contract that he hasn't earned. (Williams deal made him the 7th highest paid DT, Burns makes him the 2nd highest paid EDGE and he is not the 2nd best EDGE in this league).
3) By the time the Giants are good again, one of these things will happen:  Burns will be a cap casualty, Dex will be a cap casualty or they will not sign Thibodeaux because they have already invested almost 60 million/year in the DL. 

I think any reasonable person could say those things are all very possible.

I wish I had your optimism.

Anything is possible.  But I would be a lot more surprised if those things all happened. And you're not really accounting for the big difference in a mid-season trade vs an off season one.  Yes, you let Williams hit free agency, it's 7 weeks away and by that point he was going to be a free agent no matter who traded for him.  Which they did.  Burns was highly unlikely to make it to free agency.  The Giants got him for so little that you can rest assured another team would have offered something similar and then signed him to this big deal.  Or at the very least franchise tagged him.  The jets made their intentions well known they were not going to franchise tag Williams and why would they?  He was a run stuffing DT with litle in the way of pass rushing skills at that time.

Burns is certainly an elite pass rusher.  He ranks 12th in Sacks and QB hits since his rookie season he was top 10 in pass rush win rate last season and all of that is without Dexter Lawrence next to him.  If the Rams were willing to give up 2 first round picks for this guy, in the midst of a playoff  run, what does that tell you?  If you're looking for him to be LT then...well...no he's not that.  But look around the league these days.  He's not in the TJ Watt category but he's not far away and he's been doing it on his own.  Now he's got Thibs and Dexy.  So yea you're projecting a bit but that's the nature of this business. Thibs/Dex/Burns should make it a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The QB play the Giants were afforded last year was some of the worst you'll ever see.  Yes, Washington and New England were two of the teams Devito beat (Along with the pretty good Packers by the way) but he shouldn't be good enough to beat any team.  He's, respectfully, atrocious.  That defense dragged him to 3 wins and they just added a very nice piece to it.  Yes they lost McKinney and Adoree Jackson (who was nothing special last year) but otherwise this defense is coming back mostly intact but with Burns added to it.

Giants are pretty clearing planning on winning with defense for at least this season and likely the next couple.  They've got a bunch of young talented players on that side of the ball and if the offense can give them just league average performance that's going to mean a huge lift in the wins column. 

Anything can happen, this is all a gamble and there's risk in every decision.  Could this whole thing blow up?  Sure it could.  But the Williams thing blowing up was more than predictable.  This would be surprising to me if it completely blew up. 

Quote from: Gmo11 on March 22, 2024, 01:15:26 PMAnything is possible.  But I would be a lot more surprised if those things all happened. And you're not really accounting for the big difference in a mid-season trade vs an off season one.  Yes, you let Williams hit free agency, it's 7 weeks away and by that point he was going to be a free agent no matter who traded for him.  Which they did.  Burns was highly unlikely to make it to free agency.  The Giants got him for so little that you can rest assured another team would have offered something similar and then signed him to this big deal.  Or at the very least franchise tagged him.  The jets made their intentions well known they were not going to franchise tag Williams and why would they?  He was a run stuffing DT with litle in the way of pass rushing skills at that time.

Burns is certainly an elite pass rusher.  He ranks 12th in Sacks and QB hits since his rookie season he was top 10 in pass rush win rate last season and all of that is without Dexter Lawrence next to him.  If the Rams were willing to give up 2 first round picks for this guy, in the midst of a playoff  run, what does that tell you?  If you're looking for him to be LT then...well...no he's not that.  But look around the league these days.  He's not in the TJ Watt category but he's not far away and he's been doing it on his own.  Now he's got Thibs and Dexy.  So yea you're projecting a bit but that's the nature of this business. Thibs/Dex/Burns should make it a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The QB play the Giants were afforded last year was some of the worst you'll ever see.  Yes, Washington and New England were two of the teams Devito beat (Along with the pretty good Packers by the way) but he shouldn't be good enough to beat any team.  He's, respectfully, atrocious.  That defense dragged him to 3 wins and they just added a very nice piece to it.  Yes they lost McKinney and Adoree Jackson (who was nothing special last year) but otherwise this defense is coming back mostly intact but with Burns added to it.

Giants are pretty clearing planning on winning with defense for at least this season and likely the next couple.  They've got a bunch of young talented players on that side of the ball and if the offense can give them just league average performance that's going to mean a huge lift in the wins column. 

Anything can happen, this is all a gamble and there's risk in every decision.  Could this whole thing blow up?  Sure it could.  But the Williams thing blowing up was more than predictable.  This would be surprising to me if it completely blew up. 

You make some good points.

If Carolina was willing to trade with the Giants, then it seems like they were not going to tag him.  Yes maybe another team would have made an offer.  I really don't remember if another team made an offer for Williams (who by the way just signed another contract similar to the one he had with the Giants). 

If Burns ranks 12th in sacks over that period, how is he elite? This whole "sack win rate" and "pressures" is the exact stuff I heard when Olivier Vernon was signed.  Is he really worth the 2nd highest contract for an EDGE?  Guess we will find out.  Sure hope his presence helps Thibodeaux and him because neither has really set the world on fire. 

It could be a nightmare for opposing offenses if the run defense improves (not a strong point of Burns) AND the offense gets better.   Hoping to win with defense in today's NFL doesn't exactly inspire much confidence for me.  In order to do that you have to have some semblance of being able to move the ball consistently on offense to at least change field position.  It's just not a winning formula today. 

To me this move is similar in that DG really thought Williams would help the Giants the next year and thereafter compete with defense.  It was a desperation move on his part.  This move feels oddly similar for a HC that may be gone if he has another 6 win season. 

Like I said, I hope I am wrong and Burns is as good as advertised.  And they are able to win with defense.

Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 01:47:29 PMYou make some good points.

If Carolina was willing to trade with the Giants, then it seems like they were not going to tag him.  Yes maybe another team would have made an offer.  I really don't remember if another team made an offer for Williams (who by the way just signed another contract similar to the one he had with the Giants). 

If Burns ranks 12th in sacks over that period, how is he elite? This whole "sack win rate" and "pressures" is the exact stuff I heard when Olivier Vernon was signed.  Is he really worth the 2nd highest contract for an EDGE?  Guess we will find out.  Sure hope his presence helps Thibodeaux and him because neither has really set the world on fire. 

It could be a nightmare for opposing offenses if the run defense improves (not a strong point of Burns) AND the offense gets better.  Hoping to win with defense in today's NFL doesn't exactly inspire much confidence for me.  In order to do that you have to have some semblance of being able to move the ball consistently on offense to at least change field position.  It's just not a winning formula today. 

To me this move is similar in that DG really thought Williams would help the Giants the next year and thereafter compete with defense.  It was a desperation move on his part.  This move feels oddly similar for a HC that may be gone if he has another 6 win season. 

Like I said, I hope I am wrong and Burns is as good as advertised.  And they are able to win with defense.

I agree with the 2nd bolded part there.  Winning with defense isn't ideal anymore.  No argument.  However to win with offense you need a QB and the Giants don't have one.  So for this particular team, at least this particular season, they don't really have a choice.  The only other option would be to sign nobody at all, trade away everything of any value, and really make a run at the #1 pick in the draft next season.  And that's assuming they believe the #1 QB next year is a better prospect than JJ McCarthy or whoever ends up being the 4th QB this year and I'm not sure you'd get a consensus on that either way.

As to the first bolded part, yes the Vernon had a lot of similar rhetoric attached to him.  And to be fair I had high hopes for him too back then.  Clearly I was mistaken.  But I don't know if that's good enough reason to just not do stuff.  Once they made the Burns trade I watched a lot of video of him playing.  I'm not a coach or an expert by any means but I did like what I saw.  It gave me reason for optimism that when playing with Thibs/Dex one of those 3 guys should be able to consistently get to the QB on any given day.  You can't double all of them! 

im only giving it a 4 cause we havent seen it pay off yet. on paper its solid. but we are also paying a lottttttttttttt of money for him, and if he regresses as players tend to do when they come here, its gonna sting real bad.

but if he and kayvon can be the tandem they no doubt have the skills to be, with big dex in the middle...that could be horrifying for opposing qb's

I haven't voted because I cannot see the future.

I will say I think the price of the trade is actually fair to both sides in the context of other trades this year (Sneed, Allen) where older players/players with injury records basically got traded for a slight upgrade on the future compensatory pick they would have brought if they went as a FA. As a younger, healthy player Burns was worth a premium.

In the context of roster building it creates a possible strength on a team that arguably had no clear areas of strength and that is a fair start to any rebuild, but it is obviously insufficient in itself to compete.

That might translate as a 4 for the logic and execution but that is no guarantee of impact and production.

I'd like to see Leo come back at a reasonable $$ amount.

He had good chemistry with Dex and I think he can still bring the pressure.


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Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on March 23, 2024, 04:31:32 PMI'd like to see Leo come back at a reasonable $$ amount.

He had good chemistry with Dex and I think he can still bring the pressure.


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Didn't he sign a three year contract with Seattle?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on March 23, 2024, 04:38:52 PMDidn't he sign a three year contract with Seattle?

Damn! Don't know how I missed that. Thanks for the heads up!

PS. I wouldn't have spent THAT kind of $$$ on him.


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Quote from: andrew_nyGiants on March 23, 2024, 04:46:04 PMDamn! Don't know how I missed that. Thanks for the heads up!

PS. I wouldn't have spent THAT kind of $$$ on him.


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Not sure of guarantees, there, but his contract in Seattle is almost the same total over 3 years the Giants signed him for 3 years ago. 

According to this article the Rams attempt to trade for Burns was in 2022 not 2023.

Makes a difference in the offer with an extra year:

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/06/rejected-rams-proposal-affected-panthers-extension-talks-with-brian-burns

Quote from: uconnjack8 on June 23, 2024, 07:58:41 AMAccording to this article the Rams attempt to trade for Burns was in 2022 not 2023.

Makes a difference in the offer with an extra year:

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/06/rejected-rams-proposal-affected-panthers-extension-talks-with-brian-burns

The Rams are one of the smartest teams in the league. The fact that they wanted this guy enough to make an aggressive offer for him is very reassuring for anyone wondering how good he is.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 23, 2024, 08:08:22 AMThe Rams are one of the smartest teams in the league. The fact that they wanted this guy enough to make an aggressive offer for him is very reassuring for anyone wondering how good he is.

Find it somewhat interesting that their offer caused issues in negotiations for the Panthers and Burns. 

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 23, 2024, 08:08:22 AMThe Rams are one of the smartest teams in the league. The fact that they wanted this guy enough to make an aggressive offer for him is very reassuring for anyone wondering how good he is.

The Rams are also known for trading away top picks, so I am not sure an offer by the Rams is a solid gauge of a player's "true" value

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 23, 2024, 09:36:40 AMThe Rams are also known for trading away top picks, so I am not sure an offer by the Rams is a solid gauge of a player's "true" value

That's a good point Rich.

I think it's still reassuring however that they were clearly very interested in getting this particular player into their organization, such to the point that they were willing to make an aggressive offer for him (whatever the exact price was).

As with any transaction, the "true" value of the deal is what the buyer is prepared to pay.

The Rams thought very highly of him to make an aggressive offer.

They are hard data, analytic driven that traded for Stafford who led them to a Super Bowl.

The fact the Giants have landed a core piece that they coveted is a real boon for the D.

I'm excited to see him.