Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Bob In PA on October 02, 2024, 10:33:20 AMDoc: Good point. That makes it more likely choice (1) is correct and rules out choices (3) and (4), it does not rule out choice (2). I think the current OL is the best he's ever had in the NFL, but we only have four games to consider so far. It's still possible the OL will continue to improve as they get to know each other better (same for the run-game) so the jury is still out on this group. Bob

Daboll isn't doing all the crazy moving pockets and bootlegs he had to scheme in 2022 to buy Jones time. So I think that change in approach to protection from 2022 to 2024 suggests your (4) is not likely. Though you could argue the TE max protect is still covering up some deficiencies and may be used in a similar manner.

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on October 02, 2024, 10:45:57 AMDaboll isn't doing all the crazy moving pockets and bootlegs he had to scheme in 2022 to buy Jones time. So I think that change in approach to protection from 2022 to 2024 suggests your (4) is not likely. Though you could argue the TE max protect is still covering up some deficiencies and may be used in a similar manner.

H-T: Great point. I like it especially because our run-game has basically sucked thus far, which causes me to suspect the current OL is not as much improved (over all) as it some folks might believe -and/or- we have not yet seen the entire offense (possibly because the offensive linemen are still getting to know each other. Bob

Quote from: Trench on October 02, 2024, 10:33:50 AMI would argue it is not the coaching staff because Daboll (and Jones) are on record saying they want to push the ball downfield this season. Obviously the QB can't make the throws (or everything has to be pristine for him to do so)

Trench: You're right so far, but IMO we need to see the whole season before settling on that conclusion. Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on October 02, 2024, 10:54:39 AMTrench: You're right so far, but IMO we need to see the whole season before settling on that conclusion. Bob

I hope you're right. I want nothing more than for the guy to blossom. But if we are moving on let's put Devito in and save some $$ on Jones contract

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on October 02, 2024, 10:43:38 AMOkay, let's indulge your "outlier" argument (even though you don't control for his best performance, which would be an even-handed approach). 6.8 YPA puts him... 24th in the NFL (instead of 27th). Wow, he's still bottom third of the NFL in YPA. Want to adjust his completion percentage? Okay, its 67%, good for 17th/18th (depending how you slice it) in the NFL. Oh, and these are rankings without removing every other QBs worst performance, which would obviously skew things downward for DJ. So even giving Jones this sort of best-case scenario of statistical manipulation, he's still producing at the level of an average to below-average QB. Even when he's got the pass protection and star wide receiver people clamored for.

Good post. I think this speaks to Jones' ceiling being a bottom-third starter in the league while his floor as we've seen is unmitigated disaster.

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on October 02, 2024, 10:43:38 AMOkay, let's indulge your "outlier" argument (even though you don't control for his best performance, which would be an even-handed approach). 6.8 YPA puts him... 24th in the NFL (instead of 27th). Wow, he's still bottom third of the NFL in YPA. Want to adjust his completion percentage? Okay, its 67%, good for 17th/18th (depending how you slice it) in the NFL. Oh, and these are rankings without removing every other QBs worst performance, which would obviously skew things downward for DJ. So even giving Jones this sort of best-case scenario of statistical manipulation, he's still producing at the level of an average to below-average QB. Even when he's got the pass protection and star wide receiver people clamored for.

You do not seem to understand the concept of an outlier.  It is not the old Olympic judging procedure of tossing out the high and low values.  It is disregarding a resuly that is far different than the universe. 

Rich posted this:

Week 1-  4.4 yards per
Week 2-  6.4 yards per
Week 3-  6.9 yards per
Week 4-  7.0 yards per

Clearly 3 of the values are in the same ballpark and one is way outside.  THAT is the outlier.  Just as a game where he had a y/a of 12 would be an outlier and should be excluded from averages.

Quote from: Philosophers on October 02, 2024, 10:29:09 AMWhat's the outlier you are suggesting?

Really?

Rich posted this:

QuoteWeek 1-  4.4 yards per
Week 2-  6.4 yards per
Week 3-  6.9 yards per
Week 4-  7.0 yards per

Spotting the outlier is left as an exercise for the student.

Quote from: Doc16LT56 on October 02, 2024, 10:25:04 AMSegregating 4 data points from a set of 64 data points does not make the outlier case you're trying to make.

Except that we are specifically discussing the first quarter of the season and that has 4 data points.  And what point am I making?  That 6.8 is more representative of his performances in that first quarter of the season than 6.1.

More middle of the pack than bottom third



14th QBR

20th PFF (20% filter)

24th QB rating

13th yards

17th TDs

27th Yards per Attempt

A couple of bottom third, but the majority are middle

Quote from: AZGiantFan on October 02, 2024, 12:48:48 PMYou do not seem to understand the concept of an outlier.  It is not the old Olympic judging procedure of tossing out the high and low values.  It is disregarding a resuly that is far different than the universe. 

Rich posted this:

Week 1-  4.4 yards per
Week 2-  6.4 yards per
Week 3-  6.9 yards per
Week 4-  7.0 yards per

Clearly 3 of the values are in the same ballpark and one is way outside.  THAT is the outlier.  Just as a game where he had a y/a of 12 would be an outlier and should be excluded from averages.

I understand the concept of a statistical outlier. I didn't want to get this into the weeds about it (hence why I just assumed your argument), but since you want to be precise, let's be precise. Jones's game one performance is an outlier... but due to natural variation and data points resulting from natural variation should not be removed from a data set. This isn't some issue where the data was collected incorrectly or the data represents a practical impossibility. Unless you can establish it's not the result of natural variation, arbitrarily removing it because it looks bad for him is uncalled for (reciprocally true for your 12 YPA theoretical). Now, ultimately, we know even if we remove it he still looks mid at best with this production so why we're caught up about it being included or not seems to miss the point.

Quote from: MightyGiants on October 02, 2024, 01:06:25 PMMore middle of the pack than bottom third



14th QBR

20th PFF (20% filter)

24th QB rating

13th yards

17th TDs

27th Yards per Attempt

A couple of bottom third, but the majority are middle

My personal view is bottom-third but I don't dispute the case you're making regarding mid-tier.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on October 02, 2024, 12:59:07 PMExcept that we are specifically discussing the first quarter of the season and that has 4 data points.  And what point am I making?  That 6.8 is more representative of his performances in that first quarter of the season than 6.1.

Okay, I don't disagree that 6.8 is representative. I see Jones as a 6.6-6.8 QB. He may average 5.5 or 7.5 next game but by the end of the season, I think we will find his ypa in the 6.6 to 6.8 range.

Well done JS, Mara et al. We have a middling QB. Is that what we expected from the 2022 season?

The bar is so low. Sheesh.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on October 02, 2024, 12:53:23 PMReally?

Rich posted this:

Spotting the outlier is left as an exercise for the student.

I thought you were referring to something else.

Quote from: MightyGiants on October 02, 2024, 10:27:11 AMTo the point in bold, some people seem to be suggesting that it's impossible for DJ to improve to the point of being a franchise QB.  I think the ones you are referring to as "(he) is the answer" are just trying to be fair in their assessment of DJ and would like to wait and see how things are playing out.

Isn't that what we've been doing for 6 years lol? How much more waiting and seeing is good enough for you? Every other team that drafts a bad Qb dumps them quickly and for the most part have found their new guy. Not us though, we still have fans that think Jones is the answer when he clearly isn't.

I'd almost compare people that think Jones is a good Qb to a hoarder, they both know in their hearts they need to let go of the trash but just can't.