Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 16, 2024, 10:56:59 AMIs building around a RB the paradigm for success in today's NFL? What team that has been successful in recent times has done that? The Pats never did that in their great 20 year run. The Chiefs haven't done it at all with this current dynasty or borderline dynasty they have. The Eagles haven't done it. Other successful teams in recent times like the 49ers and Ravens haven't done it either.

Teams that are already very good or elite may choose to add a top RB like Barkley or McCaffrey as a way of going from good to very good or very good to great, but I can't think of a single franchise in recent times that successfully centered the beginnings of their build around a RB. There have been teams that have tried, such as the Titans with Henry, the Panthers with McCaffrey, and even the Vikes with Adrian Peterson, but the strategy has not gotten them very far. That is because the league has changed.

I am in no way suggesting that great RBs cannot do a lot for a team. Obviously they can. But I am definitely disputing the idea that the Giants should have made Barkley the centerpiece of a bad team and built around him. Or that any bad team in the early days of a build should do that. That model is relic of the past, and at this point I would call it the fairly distant past.

How did the Titans with Mariotta then Tannehill and Panthers with Cam Newton try to build franchises around the RB? 

They added the RB to help build around what they believed was a franchise QB.

Quote from: kingm56 on November 16, 2024, 10:30:42 AMI'm struck by how many are evaluating the Barkley situation in isolation. While initial disappointment might be understandable, it's worth emphasizing that Tracy has proven to be a highly effective replacement at a fraction of the cost. If we extrapolate their performance metrics over a 17-game season, the differences fall within statistically insignificant margins. Moreover, Tracy's production has come despite operating behind a less effective offensive line and with a quarterback whose downfield passing capabilities are severely limited. Given these circumstances, the running back position appears to be in a strong and sustainable place.

Matt,

Only thing I am struck by with this is that people really thought Barkley wasn't capable because of what they saw him do in a feckless Giants offense. 

Short term it was definitely going to hurt talent level on the team but it was still the right thing to do.

Quote from: kingm56 on November 16, 2024, 10:30:42 AMI'm struck by how many are evaluating the Barkley situation in isolation. While initial disappointment might be understandable, it's worth emphasizing that Tracy has proven to be a highly effective replacement at a fraction of the cost. If we extrapolate their performance metrics over a 17-game season, the differences fall within statistically insignificant margins. Moreover, Tracy's production has come despite operating behind a less effective offensive line and with a quarterback whose downfield passing capabilities are severely limited. Given these circumstances, the running back position appears to be in a strong and sustainable place.

I heard a comment recently that had Howie Roseman let Barkley walk and got nearly the same production from a 5th round pick in Tracy they would be saying how brilliant he was.  Of course if we pull back the lens even further, the difference between Schoen and Roseman is how success they have been at their jobs.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on November 16, 2024, 10:56:59 AMIs building around a RB the paradigm for success in today's NFL? What team that has been successful in recent times has done that? The Pats never did that in their great 20 year run. The Chiefs haven't done it at all with this current dynasty or borderline dynasty they have. The Eagles haven't done it. Other successful teams in recent times like the 49ers and Ravens haven't done it either.

Teams that are already very good or elite may choose to add a top RB like Barkley or McCaffrey as a way of going from good to very good or very good to great, but I can't think of a single franchise in recent times that successfully centered the beginnings of their build around a RB. There have been teams that have tried, such as the Titans with Henry, the Panthers with McCaffrey, and even the Vikes with Adrian Peterson, but the strategy has not gotten them very far. That is because the league has changed.

I am in no way suggesting that great RBs cannot do a lot for a team. Obviously they can. But I am definitely disputing the idea that the Giants should have made Barkley the centerpiece of a bad team and built around him. Or that any bad team in the early days of a build should do that. That model is relic of the past, and at this point I would call it the fairly distant past.

If you run a screen of individual RBs you will not see much correlation between the top 10 RBs and team success.

However if you look the top 10 running teams (by overall rushing grades) you will see the collective record of the 10 teams is 64-34

With more than 2 high safeties and teams focusing on stopping big passing plays, the run may actually become more important rather than less.  It's just with a glut of RBs, individual runners are not that important.

Quote from: kingm56 on November 16, 2024, 10:30:42 AMI'm struck by how many are evaluating the Barkley situation in isolation. While initial disappointment might be understandable, it's worth emphasizing that Tracy has proven to be a highly effective replacement at a fraction of the cost. If we extrapolate their performance metrics over a 17-game season, the differences fall within statistically insignificant margins. Moreover, Tracy's production has come despite operating behind a less effective offensive line and with a quarterback whose downfield passing capabilities are severely limited. Given these circumstances, the running back position appears to be in a strong and sustainable place.

Excellent analysis.

I'm curious to know Barkley's numbers from 2022 compared to Tracy's this year. I know Barkley was out for a couple of games that year but Tracy also didn't play couple of games this year.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 16, 2024, 02:54:42 PMI heard a comment recently that had Howie Roseman let Barkley walk and got nearly the same production from a 5th round pick in Tracy they would be saying how brilliant he was.  Of course if we pull back the lens even further, the difference between Schoen and Roseman is how success they have been at their jobs.

A smart move is a smart move regardless of who makes it. Success in an organization is made from a collection of more smart moves than bad ones.

No manager makes a knowingly bad move. We make choices based on the information at that time.

Quote from: T200 on November 17, 2024, 08:20:23 AMA smart move is a smart move regardless of who makes it. Success in an organization is made from a collection of more smart moves than bad ones.

No manager makes a knowingly bad move. We make choices based on the information at that time.

In football, moves are not made in a vacuum.   In the case of the Eagles, they have a talent-packed roster.  Finding ways to save cap space is a high priority for them.  In the case of the Giants, they have a talent deficient roster, finding ways to retain and obtain talent is the priority for them

I wouldn't be so quick to thank us if I were them.

Chances are they'll win as many Super Bowls with Saquon as we did.