Jon Gruden exposes Cam Newton's real weakness

[todge]

Auburn's offensive plays were called from the sideline via large numbers written on poster boards.  After Cam pockets whatever millions in his bank account, where is the motivation to thoroughly memorize a 250+ play book?  Can anyone see him being the first in the office and the last to leave every day? 

So I agree with most of you.  This guy is going to be a classic boom-or-bust type. But I am inclined to lean to the latter.  Given his background and character, I just can't imagine Cam spending every night mastering the playbook and ultimately having total command of the offense. 

[dasher]

I am with you Mr. Todge on this issue. Cam has bust written all over him. Being athletic in a simple offense is not what the NFL is all about. Plus, his passing accuracy is also very much in play as an issue.The memory of Jemarcus Russell is too vivid in my mind.
What would I do if I was Carolina? Trade the pick? No. I would take the LSU cornerback Peterson and open the second with either Ryan Mallett or whatever top QB drops and is available.

[vette5573]

Dale, Andy Reid just gave him some pretty high praise.

Isnt it a bit harsh to judge some young kid as Having bust written all over him?

I actually agree with Reid.

[dasher]

For starters, Newton has been arrested for possession of a stolen laptop (charges were dropped after he participated in pretrial community service), was suspended for two weeks before the start of his freshman year at Florida for academic cheating and was the central figure in an NCAA investigation that determined his father asked Mississippi State boosters for $180,000 to sign his son. Newton denied any knowledge. Where there's smoke, there is fire.
He has played one tremendous season at Auburn in an offense that maximized his running abilities. He is reportedly not a very accurate passer.
And Jon Gruden exposed his lack of knowledge at a minimum, being considerate of not making him look foolish at the chalkboard.
The team that drafts him will undoubtably start him quickly since they need a QB. He will not get the benefit of sitting and watching for a period of time.
I see him as another Jamarcus Russell or Vince Young or Akili Smith.
Maybe bust is a harsh word, but I think he will struggle mightily to ever being a dependable NFL QB.

[vette5573]

Dale, I think he will struggle too for a couple of years. He certainly will have to deal with that past as it will come up again and again. You may recall the issues that Amhad Bradshaw had in college. He was accused and had to serve time eventually for something similar. He dropped down in the draft because of those issues. Now, it's all behind him unless something else comes up and then that will be brought back again. Stupid thing act by a kid or tip of the iceberg to a bad character flaw? Time will tell but it's a lesson learned, no doubt.

I saw the entire Gruden segment. He was tough on every kid he critiqued. He also gave some praise to each kid. It wasn't an interview where he was out to expose the kid. Did you watch these shows on ESPN? He was playing the part of a coaching mentor to prepare these young Quarterbacks for what to expect in the NFL. Life in a glass bowl, in constant scrutiny of the media and bloggers who will take every opportunity to take their shots. What to expect in the Pro game from a professional level.

What I think he has on his side is the ability in which he successfully ran that high speed, quick moving rhythm based offense. Just because it's simple in verbage it doesn't mean it's easy or it didn't require much effort in preparation. Quite the contrary. The execution, which is a word most players and teams in the NFL struggle with was flawless at times. He has a strong arm and can make all the throws. He has good field read and reaction. He has football smarts and instinct.

I'm not enamored with this kid, I'm just saying give him an opportunity to be drafted and to at least step on the field before we all label him a bust. Wouldn't we all want the same consideration?

I have to admit that I dismissed him in the same fashion until I took the time to look into him a bit deeper. I may not have said it, but it was my initial reaction based on all the BS with his past and the non fit comments about his lack of NFL preparation. Mike with his incredibly vast knowledge of the College level game made an excellent point about it being about the player not the program that will eventually determine the success or failure of the player. I also believe it's the situation and the support he gets from the team and the coaching staff too.

Tell you what, if he drops to 19 and he won't, but if he would, the NY Giants would make that pick and never look back.

[dasher]

Ed,
I understand your thoughts and also agree that Mike has made a very compelling argument concerning the pistol/spread QB's. But, it is based on repition and execution. I think the pro game at QB requires dedication and hours upon hours of playbook learning and film study.
Where I disagree is your Bradshaw comparison. It is infinitely easier to be an NFL RB than a QB. The QB has to know everything about everybody and then read the defense and make calls all in a few seconds. I don't think  a RB has to be particularly smart. A QB does.
Regarding Gruden- I love the guy and did watch and rewatch his segments. Do you think he could light a fire under somebody? Maybe a laid back Mississippi boy? He deserves another gig, whenever that season might be.

[Sect122Mike]

Ed,
I understand your thoughts and also agree that Mike has made a very compelling argument concerning the pistol/spread QB's. But, it is based on repition and execution. I think the pro game at QB requires dedication and hours upon hours of playbook learning and film study.
Where I disagree is your Bradshaw comparison. It is infinitely easier to be an NFL RB than a QB. The QB has to know everything about everybody and then read the defense and make calls all in a few seconds. I don't think  a RB has to be particularly smart. A QB does.
Regarding Gruden- I love the guy and did watch and rewatch his segments. Do you think he could light a fire under somebody? Maybe a laid back Mississippi boy? He deserves another gig, whenever that season might be.

Dale,
I think I've done a terrible job of explaining what the Oregon offense does to prep.  while I can;t speak for Nevada or Auburn, which are the only other teams operating the speed offense that the Ducks run right now, I can tell you a lot about the Oregon offense.  The reason the offense is executed so simply is that Chip Kelly, head coach, estimates his offense spends 2-3 times more prep time in the "classroom" than other teams. the offense is incredibly complicated to run and in order to make it simple enough that four pictures can tell 11 people what they have to do, the amount of work everyone does inside looking at tapes and preparing for contingencies is massive compared to other schools.  Its not just the QB that has to do this, its all of them. Oregon runs extensive lineman classed, back classes, receiver classes and so one.  They coach that offense so well that it becomes second nature.  The way its run means an audible is almost never needed because the ball is snapped within 3 seconds of the ref putting it on the ground, but that does not mean the team does not spend the time inside. 

Granted, the pro game requires far more study than any college could ever do.  Its really night and day, similar to the argument I made about the best high school teams in NY and college teams.  Even the 10 teams in the BCS games last season, not a one of them is anything like a pro offense.  The pro game, especially at QB, requires far more dedication and exactly the hours upon hours of film, study and playbook work that you mentioned.  But its true for any QB, not just the guys from Stanford.  Jake Locker is known far and wide as a classroom guy. He works his ass off to be as good as he is.  Lets see how fast his transition is.  He has the physical tools and he is a very smart man, but even for him, its just a hard move to the pro-level. 

Next year the top QBs will probably be guys like Andrew Luck from Stanford and Matt Barkley out of USC because they are in pro-style offenses.  Though I think the best pro-style QB in the country is Kirk Cousins at Michigan State and I am interested to see what Charlie Weis can do with John Brantley, who is 6'4" and has a cannon, but is not accurate.  If Weis can do something with him, we will be talking about him next year in round 1. 

But I also think that next year we will be having the same conversation about guys like Oklahoma's Landry Jones, Oregon's Darron Thomas and Ohio State's Terrell Pryor.  Jones by the way is my early Heisman pick and IMO, the best overall QB in the nation, but he plays out of the option spread. He never takes snaps from under center and runs well, but also has a great arm, is huge and will contend for a title this year and should easily with the Big 12 (if thats what its called now).  Wait until next year and we will all be having this same conversation about one of these three guys, or someone similar. 

It happens every year, and some of them like Rivers and Brees make it, and some like Akili Smith don't.  But Akili Smith's failure at the pro-level had nothing to do with the spread offense he ran, the guy was lazy and could not throw the ball down the field accurately.  Its all about the guy. 

[MightyGiants]

Mike,

I think it's also important to mention that all college programs are constrained by the 20 hour a week rule.   Any college football program can only spend 20 hours a week practicing and preparing.

[MightyGiants]

Brian Billick sums it up nicely:

In all fairness to Cam Newton, he has better throwing action than both Young and Tim Tebow and he is much more NFL ready than both prospects were in their respective draft years.  As I mentioned when analyzing Blaine Gabbert, the college spread offense makes it very difficult to estimate how ones games with translate into the NFL, and with Newton it is even more difficult.  He has only 292 passing attempts on his resume, and as one quarterback coach recently told me, only about 10% of throws in a spread offense are comparable to NFL style routes.  That means that we are asking a club to play this young man almost 50 million dollars based off game analysis of just 30 throws.

Finally, as has been discussed over and over, Newton

[Sect122Mike]

Mike,

I think it's also important to mention that all college programs are constrained by the 20 hour a week rule.   Any college football program can only spend 20 hours a week practicing and preparing.

Thats funny Rich.  the 20 hour rule, ha.  

The so called 20 hour rule was adopted in 1991 after a horrific survey revealed basketball players were spending over 30 hours a week on basketball instead of classes.  But the rule is about as easy to get around as a Eli Manning block.  

The only things that count are mandatory meetings and not even all of them count.  Most teams have a captain, who is trained individually by coaches.  Then the coaches meet with teh team and that captain for video prep work, that counts.  then after the coaches leave, the homework session with just the captain and the team does nto count. So the 2-3 hours of captains practices per day don't count toward the 20 hour rule.  then the session with teh coaches ot make sure everyone gets it, that counts.  So a players can have 25 hours of tape review and only have 3-5 hours count toward the rule.

Also, game day, no matter how much work is done on game day, counts only as 3 hours.  

Also, time in the training room spent on "rehab" is not coaching.  So every player reports minor injuries each week that require several hours in the weight room that do not count.  

Finally, the weekly team compliance meetings don;t count, even though they last a couple of hours and is often the only time the entire team and head coach are in the same meeting room.  Also voluntary team activity, as long as there is no coach present, does not count.  

Anyway Rich, that 20 hours rule is laughable.  Its simply not an obstruction. A season or three ago the NCAA had another survey and the average player reported 45 hours a week on football.  And that was average, school like michigan and oregon were reportedly much higher than 50 hours per week.  

[Sect122Mike]

Brian Billick sums it up nicely:

In all fairness to Cam Newton, he has better throwing action than both Young and Tim Tebow and he is much more NFL ready than both prospects were in their respective draft years.  As I mentioned when analyzing Blaine Gabbert, the college spread offense makes it very difficult to estimate how ones games with translate into the NFL, and with Newton it is even more difficult.  He has only 292 passing attempts on his resume, and as one quarterback coach recently told me, only about 10% of throws in a spread offense are comparable to NFL style routes.  That means that we are asking a club to play this young man almost 50 million dollars based off game analysis of just 30 throws.

Finally, as has been discussed over and over, Newton

[files58]

Dasher, Gruden has said live on a broadcast that he would "love to coach a Manning".

[finnref]

I have been following the discussion on Newton and have nothing to add about these pros and cons. But let me throw out a possibly whacky thought. A team drafts him as QB and lets him sit as the third qb for several years, or if he is a complete flop at this position, use him as a RB. Let him be a third down back while he learns QB. He looks like a great runner as opposed to D. Russell.

[Sect122Mike]

I have been following the discussion on Newton and have nothing to add about these pros and cons. But let me throw out a possibly whacky thought. A team drafts him as QB and lets him sit as the third qb for several years, or if he is a complete flop at this position, use him as a RB. Let him be a third down back while he learns QB. He looks like a great runner as opposed to D. Russell.

Its tough to pay a guy 22+ million for the first year to sit on the bench with the cap where it was.  If the rookie cap is lowered, maybe that can work. But to sit the guy, you need to have another starter.  If you have another starter earning a starter's money, its tough to tie up all that money at the QB spot.  I think it depends on how far down he goes. If Carolina takes him, they have to start him because they will not be able to afford another decent QB. If its a team like the Vikes at 12, then I think your plan would work great.   

[dasher]

Gruden analyzes the five QB's tonite. Should be interesting!
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=6395844