NGT - Let’s talk 2023 fantasy football

[PSUBeirut]

ok I don't know about you guys but I'm now all in on Waller.  Him + Kafka + how the offense is looking geared his way has sold me.  I'm also going to target DJ as my QB so I can get good value there and spend cash in other places.  I don't think I'm being a homer here- in fact, if Waller does go down with injury I'm gonna make sure to grab Bellinger because I think he'll step up and be viable.

Thoughts???  I'm usually not a homer in my drafts but in this case I don't think my eyes are lying to me!!

[DaveBrown74]

ok I don't know about you guys but I'm now all in on Waller.  Him + Kafka + how the offense is looking geared his way has sold me.  I'm also going to target DJ as my QB so I can get good value there and spend cash in other places.  I don't think I'm being a homer here- in fact, if Waller does go down with injury I'm gonna make sure to grab Bellinger because I think he'll step up and be viable.

Thoughts???  I'm usually not a homer in my drafts but in this case I don't think my eyes are lying to me!!

Totally agree 100% on Waller. And believe me, I really go out of my way to not be a homer in fantasy. My league is pretty competitive and sharp, so there really is no room to be.

We're not the only ones on Waller. His ADP is steadily rising. I'm picking 12th in a 12 team league, and mocks suggest I only have about a 50/50 chance of getting him on the 5/6 turn. And my draft isn't until Sep 5th, so I'm a little concerned. Given his injury tendencies, I think the 3/4 turn is a bit early, even with him looking this good. With that said I am increasingly thinking he'll be a top 2 or 3 TE if he manages to stay healthy all season.

Jones should be a good fantasy QB this year. Not sure if I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but fast fact: Jones averaged more fantasy points per game than Justin Herbert last year. Even last year Jones was a viable streaming option - this year I think he will be a legitimate starter. With that said, my league happens to be a 6 point for TD pass league, so I need guys that I definitely see getting 30 plus passing TDs. Jones might, but it's no guarantee.

A couple guys I've been warming up to more recently:


Jaxon Smith-Njigba: I believe Phil mentioned him earlier in the thread. I've always loved this kid and wouldn't have minded it if we drafted him to the Giants. I know he has competition for targets in Seattle, but I could really see him getting more of a target share than one might think today. He is a great talent IMO.

Jordan Addison: I will be up front about the fact that I was down on this guy in the real life draft (despite acknowledging he was excellent in college). His measurables were awful, but he seems pretty adept at separating, and it seems like he'll be a key part of this Viking offense, which throws the ball plenty. The Vikes' D is going to be awful again this year (maybe even worse than last year), so they're going to be throwing constantly. And consider also that the loss of Cook will open up some targets to be distributed. I think this guy will have enough volume to be a decent flex option.

Jaylen Warren: I know this one will make you scratch your heads, but I am planning on trying to get him very late as my RB5. Simply put, I think this guy may be better than Najee Harris. I am not suggesting he will usurp Harris as the bell cow back in this offense, but I think he will start to chip away at Harris' volume. Pittsburgh has a run-on-first, run-on-second, throw-on-third vanilla offense, so there is plenty to go around there. Plus this guy is a good pass catcher. Simply put I think Harris is overrated, and this guy is underrated. I'm not advocating using any serious capital for him, but I like him late (12th/13th round or so).

Dalton Kincaid: Seems like this guy is definitely going to be in the slot for the Bills. We all know he's talented, and we know the Bills moved up in the first round to get him. They didn't do that to have him standing on the sidelines. Could have a big rookie season.

Sam LaPorta: I think he's a little less of a lock than Kincaid, but apparently they love him in Detroit.

Deuce Vaughn: Thoughts on this guy? Worth a very late flier (like 14th round or later)?

[Philosophers]

Ok, I just completed am auction draft for a ESPN league I joined.  I want feedback - if you think it sucks tell me.

QB - Justin Fields
RB - Austin Ekeler
RB - Saquon Barkley
WR - Amon Ra. St. Brown
WR - Jaxon Smith Njigba
TE - Darren Waller
D/STs - Jets
K - Graham Gano

Backups
QB - Tua Tagliovoa
RB - Isaiah Pacheco
RB - De'Von Achane
WR - Sky Moore
WR - Rashee Rice
WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jalin Hyatt

My thinking

1) my fantasy strategy is always to get to 120 points consistently with an average of 13 points from starters  and getting all starters to 10 points in a game.
 
2) I went heavy with unproven Kansas City Chiefs WRs because I think 1 will step up to be WR1 in a high powered offense.

3) I went heavy with rookie WRs because I think one will emerge in a big way.  JSN has looked fabulous and is already penciled into slot.

4) Giants heavy was just the way it played out.  Was not being a homer.

Question

Jared Goff is still available.  Should I waive say Fields to pick him up?  This has been my biggest question.

1) 0-10 , rate my team

2) like my thinking or not

3) should I pick up Goff?

[DaveBrown74]

Ok, I just completed am auction draft for a ESPN league I joined.  I want feedback - if you think it sucks tell me.

QB - Justin Fields
RB - Austin Ekeler
RB - Saquon Barkley
WR - Amon Ra. St. Brown
WR - Jaxon Smith Njigba
TE - Darren Waller
D/STs - Jets
K - Graham Gano

Backups
QB - Tua Tagliovoa
RB - Isaiah Pacheco
RB - De'Von Achane
WR - Sky Moore
WR - Rashee Rice
WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jalin Hyatt

My thinking
1) I went heavy with unproven Kansas City Chiefs WRs because I think 1 will step up to be WR1 in a high powered offense.

2) I went heavy with rookie WRs because I think one will emerge in a big way.  JSN has looked fabulous and is already penciled into slot.

3) Giants heavy was just the way it played out.  Was not being a homer.

Question

Jared Goff is still available.  Should I waive say Fields to pick him up?  This has been my biggest question.

Phil,

Very nice work. My thoughts:

RBs: Think you crushed it here. Two studs starting and a very strong bench with upside.

WRs: Obviously St. Brown is a stud. Regarding JSN, I'm a huge fan (as said in the previous post), but I don't know about being in a position where I'm depending on him on day one. I am not sure if I would start him in week one over Flowers. With that said between Flowers, JSN, Hyatt, and those Chief receivers you have a lot of upside there and will ultimately have at least two high quality starters, more likely three.

TE: Love Waller, as stated above. I might have grabbed a late round backup that I like though (LaPorta, Kincaid, Dulcich) in case he gets hurt, but love the pick.

QB: Fields has a shot to lead the league in fantasy points. I think that's a great pick.

To answer your question: if I'm going to cut a QB to pick up Goff, no way I'm cutting Fields instead of Tua. Fields is a must-keep. I definitely might cut Tua to make way for Goff, but it's fairly close there. If Tua stays healthy he's going to put up a ton of points. Goff seem more durable though, and he also puts up points. Slight lean for Goff for me.

[PSUBeirut]

Phil I think you did a great job with it, although I agree your biggest question mark is fields. I am not buying any stock in fields this year, or if I am he's going to ride my bench as a potential flyer or trade bait when he has an inevitable big game that convinces people he's the real deal...

He is just too young, too inconsistent, etc. For me!

[DaveBrown74]

Phil I think you did a great job with it, although I agree your biggest question mark is fields. I am not buying any stock in fields this year, or if I am he's going to ride my bench as a potential flyer or trade bait when he has an inevitable big game that convinces people he's the real deal...

He is just too young, too inconsistent, etc. For me!

To me Fields is basically a good fantasy running back who also gets passing yards and passing TDs. Assuming health, he is going to rush for 1100-1200 yards and get 7-11 rushing TDs. The question is can he also throw for closer to 3k passing yards and over 20 passing TDs, or is he going to stay closer to numbers like last year's? Since he is young, as you point out, I would bet on an improvement on the passing side of the game. Adding DJ Moore, who is way better than any receiver he has had to this point, should help significantly on that front.

My league is 6 points for passing TDs, not 4, so Fields is pretty much off my board anywhere near his current ADP, but if I were in a 4 point passing TD league he's someone I would personally consider.

[Philosophers]

Thanks DB and PSU for your thoughts.  I had Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields last year and as Jackson got cold during season I played Fields to huge success but feel positive line DB a d unsure like PSU.

I feel like combo of Ekeler and Barkley more than make up for an unproven WR2.  Ultimately one will rise from my rookies.

Funny but I did not write it but DB you were reading my mind.  LaPorta is tearing up Lions camp and I thought of dropping someone to grab him off available list so I have every backup covered.  I cant figure iyt who to drop.

Appreciate the feedback guys.

[DaveBrown74]

Thanks DB and PSU for your thoughts.  I had Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields last year and as Jackson got cold during season I played Fields to huge success but feel positive line DB a d unsure like PSU.

I feel like combo of Ekeler and Barkley more than make up for an unproven WR2.  Ultimately one will rise from my rookies.

Funny but I did not write it but DB you were reading my mind.  LaPorta is tearing up Lions camp and I thought of dropping someone to grab him off available list so I have every backup covered.  I cant figure iyt who to drop.

Appreciate the feedback guys.

LaPorta was always going to be my TE2 if I don't get Kincaid or Dulcich, but I am starting to like LaPorta more and more. I don't know how Jameson Williams' return will ultimately impact any sort of target share that he establishes in the first 6 games, but if he does well, I'm sure he won't be phased out. Dan Campbell (as we all know) was a TE himself, so I'm sure he values having a good one.

I always like to have a TE2 because tight ends get hurt so often, and once the season gets rolling it is hard to get anyone decent off the waiver wire. Any good TEs who don't get drafted are usually picked up by week 2 or 3, so if you only have one and your guy gets hurt in week 6, it's usually problematic. QB on the other hand is usually less of an issue in that respect IMO.

I think you're going to be fine at WR2. Good chance you'll be better than fine. My only potential concern was the first few games, but even that may not be an issue.

I like Achane a lot from a talent perspective. Do you think he'll get material year one touches in that crowded backfield though? He is definitely a guy I'm looking at late.

[PSUBeirut]

Just don't know about fields making a living in the nfl as a pure running qb. It just doesn't work. I think DCs are going to scheme him up better this year and if he keeps running its inevitable he will be missing some time.  Could very well be wrong but that's part of the fun.

[DaveBrown74]

Just don't know about fields making a living in the nfl as a pure running qb. It just doesn't work. I think DCs are going to scheme him up better this year and if he keeps running its inevitable he will be missing some time.  Could very well be wrong but that's part of the fun.

I agree about the heightened risk of injuries for these types of QBs, and I wouldn't want him to be our QB over Jones. Fantasy-wise though I get the appeal. He was 5th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year, and he was 23 then and the team around him is better. Given those considerations, I think it's reasonable to think he will be even more productive this year, however durability is no doubt a concern with this style. Having a solid, reliable backup like Goff makes sense if you're rolling with Fields.

[Philosophers]

LaPorta was always going to be my TE2 if I don't get Kincaid or Dulcich, but I am starting to like LaPorta more and more. I don't know how Jameson Williams' return will ultimately impact any sort of target share that he establishes in the first 6 games, but if he does well, I'm sure he won't be phased out. Dan Campbell (as we all know) was a TE himself, so I'm sure he values having a good one.

I always like to have a TE2 because tight ends get hurt so often, and once the season gets rolling it is hard to get anyone decent off the waiver wire. Any good TEs who don't get drafted are usually picked up by week 2 or 3, so if you only have one and your guy gets hurt in week 6, it's usually problematic. QB on the other hand is usually less of an issue in that respect IMO.

I think you're going to be fine at WR2. Good chance you'll be better than fine. My only potential concern was the first few games, but even that may not be an issue.

I like Achane a lot from a talent perspective. Do you think he'll get material year one touches in that crowded backfield though? He is definitely a guy I'm looking at late.

DB - I think Achane is more explosive and faster than Raheem Mostert.  I also expect him to be a very viable pass catcher out of the backfield.  He does have a shoulder injury so he may be out for rest of preseason which could impact early season touches.  Great point.

Given my strength at RB, he may be who I sacrifice for LaPorta.

[DaveBrown74]

DB - I think Achane is more explosive and faster than Raheem Mostert.  I also expect him to be a very viable pass catcher out of the backfield.  He does have a shoulder injury so he may be out for rest of preseason which could impact early season touches.  Great point.

Given my strength at RB, he may be who I sacrifice for LaPorta.

Agree about Mostert. Mostert is 31 now, plus he always ends up getting hurt. If I'm an Achane owner, I'm not that worried about Mostert after the first small handful of games.

They do have Jeff Wilson Jr though, Miles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed. Obvioulsy none of those guys are the second coming of Marshall Faulk, but it's a crowded room. I have no doubt that Achane is the most talented of those guys by a lot, but it may take him a handful of weeks to earn even a 50% total work share.

Mostert has only had one year in the league where he missed no games, and he came in in 2015.

[DaveBrown74]

Question to everyone:

What do you think of Trevor Lawrence this year?

[Philosophers]

Question to everyone:

What do you think of Trevor Lawrence this year?

Lawrence made a huge leap in his first year in the new system.  Every throwing stat was markedly better.  I've got to think it will improve again though maybe not as much.  My problem with him is that I want a QB who runs more.  When I think of TL he reminds me of a younger, more talented Jared Goff.  Similar production last year I think.

If yiu are looking for a player who makes a huge leap in production, I think did that already so more marginally better IMHO.

Do you like his skilled position players?

[DaveBrown74]

Lawrence made a huge leap in his first year in the new system.  Every throwing stat was markedly better.  I've got to think it will improve again though maybe not as much.  My problem with him is that I want a QB who runs more.  When I think of TL he reminds me of a younger, more talented Jared Goff.  Similar production last year I think.

If yiu are looking for a player who makes a huge leap in production, I think did that already so more marginally better IMHO.

Do you like his skilled position players?

I think getting Ridley could be meaningful.. apart from that I think he has solid but not great skill guys. Kirk isn't bad, but he's not exceptional in any way. Same thing with Engram. Etienne is a very skilled player who is a big help to Lawrence. I think he was part of the reason for Lawrence's big improvement last year. Obviously the coaching change was a huge reason too.

I guess when I look at Lawrence and kind of the macro view of him, I see a QB who had an elite level billing coming into the league and struggled mightily in year one, only to get significantly better in year two. Like you, I suspect that process will continue this year. By how much, I don't know. What I will say though is Josh Allen had a crappy year in year one, and he made a meaningful step forward in year two. Lawrence's 2022 was decisively better than Allen's second year. So I'd like to think Lawrence has a chance (not a guarantee obviously) of making the jump to Pro Bowl level production this year, potentially. He has all the tools to be great.

As to his rushing, fair enough, but he gets more with his feet than some QBs. 300-ish rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs isn't that bad at all if it's someone who throws for 4500-plus yards and 30-plus TDs. So I guess we'll see if he's capable of that.