NGT - Let’s talk 2023 fantasy football

[Philosophers]

Question for the thread:

How would you rank the following receivers for just 2023? Ideally from a PPR point of view.

AJ Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave

I had CeeDee Lamb last year to much success.  It taught me something.  I picked him because I thought he was good and by far the top WR on Dallas which meant lots of opportunities.  My preference is I think a good WR who clearly stands out as WR1 for all the opps he will get from his QB and quality if the QB.  Given that, here is my ranking:

Garrett Wilson - great WR1 and great QB
Amon-Ra St. Brown - great WR1/good QB
CeeDee Lamb - good, sole WR1/good QB
AJ Brown - great WR but too many options
Chris Olave - good WR returning Thimas and new QB

This is only for fantasy and points, not who I think is the best WR among them.

[DaveBrown74]

I had CeeDee Lamb last year to much success.  It taught me something.  I picked him because I thought he was good and by far the top WR on Dallas which meant lots of opportunities.  My preference is I think a good WR who clearly stands out as WR1 for all the opps he will get from his QB and quality if the QB.  Given that, here is my ranking:

Garrett Wilson - great WR1 and great QB
Amon-Ra St. Brown - great WR1/good QB
CeeDee Lamb - good, sole WR1/good QB
AJ Brown - great WR but too many options
Chris Olave - good WR returning Thimas and new QB

This is only for fantasy and points, not who I think is the best WR among them.

Yes - this is purely a fantasy discussion. Not who is the best in real life.

We're not far off in our rankings. I like Lamb a lot myself. He might be number one in this group for me. He's only 24 so likely still in an upward slope, the guy basically doesn't ever miss games, and he has been good from day one but has gotten steadily better.

Everyone loves Amon-Ra, and I don't disagree. I just have a couple of question marks with him:

(1) When Jameson Williams back, unless they play on throwing a hell of a lot more or barely targeting Williams at all, Amon-Ra's target share has to go down.

(2) In Amon-Ra's rookie year, he played best when TJ Hockenson was hurt. Then last year they didn't really have a tight end. Now all of a sudden they have Sam LaPorta, who supposedly they're very high on. Campbell as we know was a TE himself. I just wonder what that does to Amon-Ra's target share relative to last year.

(3) I wonder if Jamyr Gibbs ends up with a bigger pass catching role than either Swift or Jamaal Williams had.

I'm not down on St. Brown in any way. I think he's a thoroughbred talent. I just wonder if he's going to see the same target share that he did in 2022.


AJ Brown had a much better season last year than he has ever had before. I wonder if he'll be able to do that again. Maybe, but things could not have gone better for the Eagles offense than they did last year, and their defensive schedule is much, much tougher this year. I could see some regression there this year.


Wilson is an electrifying talent. I've said this before but he reminds me of a young OBJ. Except he's much less of a self-absorbed diva. His talent level looks similar to me though. I could see him being a top three fantasy receiver this year.


Olave is another guy I like. I don't put him quite on the level as some of the others listed above, but he did very well as a rookie with Andy Dalton as his QB. While Carr isn't great, I consider him better than Dalton. So Olave should be in a position to take a second year jump.


I'm trying to be careful with older receivers who are still going in the first and second round. Adams, Kupp, Diggs, etc. I'm not saying they will fall off, but 30 years old is a tricky threshold. Usually receivers fall off noticeably by 30/31. There are exceptions, but that's generally the rule. Sometimes you even see it at 29. So I'm trying to avoid those types of guys and instead get guys who are in the 23-25 range, where not only do I not have to worry about age, but they might still be getting better.

[Philosophers]

Yes - this is purely a fantasy discussion. Not who is the best in real life.

We're not far off in our rankings. I like Lamb a lot myself. He might be number one in this group for me. He's only 24 so likely still in an upward slope, the guy basically doesn't ever miss games, and he has been good from day one but has gotten steadily better.

Everyone loves Amon-Ra, and I don't disagree. I just have a couple of question marks with him:

(1) When Jameson Williams back, unless they play on throwing a hell of a lot more or barely targeting Williams at all, Amon-Ra's target share has to go down.

(2) In Amon-Ra's rookie year, he played best when TJ Hockenson was hurt. Then last year they didn't really have a tight end. Now all of a sudden they have Sam LaPorta, who supposedly they're very high on. Campbell as we know was a TE himself. I just wonder what that does to Amon-Ra's target share relative to last year.

(3) I wonder if Jamyr Gibbs ends up with a bigger pass catching role than either Swift or Jamaal Williams had.

I'm not down on St. Brown in any way. I think he's a thoroughbred talent. I just wonder if he's going to see the same target share that he did in 2022.


AJ Brown had a much better season last year than he has ever had before. I wonder if he'll be able to do that again. Maybe, but things could not have gone better for the Eagles offense than they did last year, and their defensive schedule is much, much tougher this year. I could see some regression there this year.


Wilson is an electrifying talent. I've said this before but he reminds me of a young OBJ. Except he's much less of a self-absorbed diva. His talent level looks similar to me though. I could see him being a top three fantasy receiver this year.


Olave is another guy I like. I don't put him quite on the level as some of the others listed above, but he did very well as a rookie with Andy Dalton as his QB. While Carr isn't great, I consider him better than Dalton. So Olave should be in a position to take a second year jump.


I'm trying to be careful with older receivers who are still going in the first and second round. Adams, Kupp, Diggs, etc. I'm not saying they will fall off, but 30 years old is a tricky threshold. Usually receivers fall off noticeably by 30/31. There are exceptions, but that's generally the rule. Sometimes you even see it at 29. So I'm trying to avoid those types of guys and instead get guys who are in the 23-25 range, where not only do I not have to worry about age, but they might still be getting better.

Dave - I dont think sam Laporta will be better this year than TJ was as a Lion so i believe that risk is minimal.

I like Chris olave a lot but now you have Michael Thomas returning and he has been a beast.  Got to think Olave may be affected by that.

[DaveBrown74]

Dave - I dont think sam Laporta will be better this year than TJ was as a Lion so i believe that risk is minimal.

I like Chris olave a lot but now you have Michael Thomas returning and he has been a beast.  Got to think Olave may be affected by that.

Good point about Michael Thomas.. I agree that that could impact Olave.

Fair on LaPorta. I don't think he'll be better than 2021 Hockenson as a rookie either, but I feel like he's a guy who over the course of the season will integrated more and more. Last year there wasn't really much of any TE presence. Tack on Gibbs all year and Jameson Williams for the final 2/3 of the year or so and St. Brown has a lot of competition, even though he's the number one option.

[Philosophers]

Good point about Michael Thomas.. I agree that that could impact Olave.

Fair on LaPorta. I don't think he'll be better than 2021 Hockenson as a rookie either, but I feel like he's a guy who over the course of the season will integrated more and more. Last year there wasn't really much of any TE presence. Tack on Gibbs all year and Jameson Williams for the final 2/3 of the year or so and St. Brown has a lot of competition, even though he's the number one option.

Jameson Williams seemed destined to be JaMar Chase out of college but he's doing everything possible to be a wasted draft pick.  Now with this gambling suspension after a lost year due to ACL surgery, he may or may not be a factor.  I'd stay with Amon

[EDjohnst1981]

This is the roster I drafted in a ten man league last night. It was rated the 3rd best in our league - any thoughts?

QB Allen
Ekler
Pollard
Ridley
Metcalf
Evan Engram
Stevenson
Gano
Eagles D

Bench
Purdy
Charbonnet
Dalvin Cook
Bradin Cooks
Toney
Njoku

I picked 5th out of ten, I was also had a few beers during the day but I'm not too disappointed how it turned out.

[DaveBrown74]

This is the roster I drafted in a ten man league last night. It was rated the 3rd best in our league - any thoughts?

QB Allen
Ekler
Pollard
Ridley
Metcalf
Evan Engram
Stevenson
Gano
Eagles D

Bench
Purdy
Charbonnet
Dalvin Cook
Bradin Cooks
Toney
Njoku

I picked 5th out of ten, I was also had a few beers during the day but I'm not too disappointed how it turned out.

Looks good. If I were going to give one gripe, I'd say you're maybe one player too loaded at RB at the expense of WR depth.

[EDjohnst1981]

Good point, DB.

I generally play an RB at the Flex position anyway but yeah, if an injury occurs I'm in a slight pickle.

[DaveBrown74]

Good point, DB.

I generally play an RB at the Flex position anyway but yeah, if an injury occurs I'm in a slight pickle.

How come you play RB in the flex? Is your league standard scoring (ie not PPR)?

[Philosophers]

Dave - so last night I did my second fantasy draft for this season which was a snake draft.  I must say I prefer $200 auctions to snake formats.

QBs - Joe Burrow and Tua Tagliovoa

RBs - Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Devon Achane and Tyjae Spears

WRs - Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Jaxon Smith Njigba, Michael Thomas, Zay Flowers and Jonathan Mingo

TEs - Darren Waller, Dalton Kincaid

Kicker - Evan Mcpheraon

D - Saints

My likes:

I think I have good players across all positions.

Gamble which may not pay off - taking Michael Thomas.  Is he really past far past his prime?

Concern - after Saquon and James Cook, I have 2 rookies who have not been established as starters.  I am betting Derrick Henry misses some games or they really resuce his workload maybe on 3rd down.

Concern - is James Cook enough of a WR2 or do I have to hope for Achane to have more impact?

[DaveBrown74]

Dave - so last night I did my second fantasy draft for this season which was a snake draft.  I must say I prefer $200 auctions to snake formats.

QBs - Joe Burrow and Tua Tagliovoa

RBs - Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Devon Achane and Tyjae Spears

WRs - Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Jaxon Smith Njigba, Michael Thomas, Zay Flowers and Jonathan Mingo

TEs - Darren Waller, Dalton Kincaid

Kicker - Evan Mcpheraon

D - Saints

My likes:

I think I have good players across all positions.

Gamble which may not pay off - taking Michael Thomas.  Is he really past far past his prime?

Concern - after Saquon and James Cook, I have 2 rookies who have not been established as starters.  I am betting Derrick Henry misses some games or they really resuce his workload maybe on 3rd down.

Concern - is James Cook enough of a WR2 or do I have to hope for Achane to have more impact?

Love this team. Great combo of high floor and significant upside.

[PSUBeirut]

So our big auction draft was last weekend....  $200 base (we are able to trade for auction dollars so I actually started with $212).  I had two keepers- Amon-Ra at $0 (last year I can keep him) and Pollard at $25.  Here is where my money went:

QB:
Daniel Jones - $8
Kenny Pickett - $0

RB:
Tony Pollard - $25
Derrick Henry - $52
Rashaad Penny - $2
Tyjae Spears - $5
Jaylen Warren - $10
Kareem Hunt - $1  (my last pick...really hoping to hear JT traded to Miami and Colts signing Kareem now)

WR:
Amon Ra - $0
Stefon Diggs - $49
T McLaurin - $20
Gabe Davis - $10
Quentin Johnston - $9

TE:
Darren Waller - $18

My own reaction- I like my team...only thing that went wrong in my draft was I was targeting D Pierce or K Walker as my RB3 but they got bid up to $35 each which was higher than I expected so I had to back off.  Other slight misstep is I like Keenan Allen better than McLaurin and they both went for $20....I picked up McLaurin assuming Allen would go higher later...ah well.

So, until either Hunt, Warren, or Penny step up a bit I'm hurting at my RB3 slot but other than that feel pretty good!  Let's gooooooo!!!

[DaveBrown74]

So our big auction draft was last weekend....  $200 base (we are able to trade for auction dollars so I actually started with $212).  I had two keepers- Amon-Ra at $0 (last year I can keep him) and Pollard at $25.  Here is where my money went:

QB:
Daniel Jones - $8
Kenny Pickett - $0

RB:
Tony Pollard - $25
Derrick Henry - $52
Rashaad Penny - $2
Tyjae Spears - $5
Jaylen Warren - $10
Kareem Hunt - $1  (my last pick...really hoping to hear JT traded to Miami and Colts signing Kareem now)

WR:
Amon Ra - $0
Stefon Diggs - $49
T McLaurin - $20
Gabe Davis - $10
Quentin Johnston - $9

TE:
Darren Waller - $18

My own reaction- I like my team...only thing that went wrong in my draft was I was targeting D Pierce or K Walker as my RB3 but they got bid up to $35 each which was higher than I expected so I had to back off.  Other slight misstep is I like Keenan Allen better than McLaurin and they both went for $20....I picked up McLaurin assuming Allen would go higher later...ah well.

So, until either Hunt, Warren, or Penny step up a bit I'm hurting at my RB3 slot but other than that feel pretty good!  Let's gooooooo!!!

First off, great job last year to now be in a position to keep Pollard and St. Brown. Those were both league-winning type picks last year.

I think you're correct to feel very good about your team. I don't see any weak spots. People around your league will probably think you're being a homer with Jones, but I think the odds favor him having a very good fantasy season, certainly relative to ADP. So I like that pick plenty.

I love Jaylen Warren. Unfortunately he has flown up the CBS rankings, which is where my league is housed. People are taking him in the 9th round now. He was a 13th or 14th rounder a couple weeks ago. I'm drafting 12th in a 12 team league, and there is zero chance I take him on the 7/8 turn, so unless he makes it to me at 9/10 I'm not going to get him. Annoying as I really like him. I think he's better than Najee Harris. I just don't know that he will fully supplant him this season. If I felt confident that he would, I would have no problem drafting him in the 7/8, or earlier.

Also love the Quentin Johnston pick. That offense is going to throw it a ton again, and Mike Williams never quite puts it all together. Meanwhile Keenan Allen is getting to an age threshold where his ability to separate might start to tail off a little. I could see Johnston thriving this year. He has both the ability to get open deep AND make plays after the catch. I could see Herbert really loving him.

What's the latest on McLaurin's toe? I read that he is in real jeopardy of missing regular season time.

[Philosophers]

First off, great job last year to now be in a position to keep Pollard and St. Brown. Those were both league-winning type picks last year.

I think you're correct to feel very good about your team. I don't see any weak spots. People around your league will probably think you're being a homer with Jones, but I think the odds favor him having a very good fantasy season, certainly relative to ADP. So I like that pick plenty.

I love Jaylen Warren. Unfortunately he has flown up the CBS rankings, which is where my league is housed. People are taking him in the 9th round now. He was a 13th or 14th rounder a couple weeks ago. I'm drafting 12th in a 12 team league, and there is zero chance I take him on the 7/8 turn, so unless he makes it to me at 9/10 I'm not going to get him. Annoying as I really like him. I think he's better than Najee Harris. I just don't know that he will fully supplant him this season. If I felt confident that he would, I would have no problem drafting him in the 7/8, or earlier.

Also love the Quentin Johnston pick. That offense is going to throw it a ton again, and Mike Williams never quite puts it all together. Meanwhile Keenan Allen is getting to an age threshold where his ability to separate might start to tail off a little. I could see Johnston thriving this year. He has both the ability to get open deep AND make plays after the catch. I could see Herbert really loving him.

What's the latest on McLaurin's toe? I read that he is in real jeopardy of missing regular season time.

I lime your team though my potential concern would be at QB as I think to win in league you need a 280+ points with some combo of 30+ TDs/3,500 yards + passing yards with an offset for rushing TDs/yards.  That assumes a significant leap for DJ or Pickett.  I think DJ has it in him and skill players but OL work in progress may be the stress point.

You are strong at WR and Johnston pick is nice upside for low cost move.

Good job drafting

[True Blue]

Trevor Lawrence
Travis Etienne
James Conner
Stefon Diggs
Davante Adams
Calvin Ridley
Pat Friermuth
Deebo Samuel
Bills D/ST
Harrison Butker

Daniel Jones
Isiah Pacheco
Alvin Kamara
Quentin Johnston
Michael Pittman
Kyle Pitts

8 Man League Half PPR

My team name is Jags In A Box