NGT - Let’s talk 2023 fantasy football

[Philosophers]

I think getting Ridley could be meaningful.. apart from that I think he has solid but not great skill guys. Kirk isn't bad, but he's not exceptional in any way. Same thing with Engram. Etienne is a very skilled player who is a big help to Lawrence. I think he was part of the reason for Lawrence's big improvement last year. Obviously the coaching change was a huge reason too.

I guess when I look at Lawrence and kind of the macro view of him, I see a QB who had an elite level billing coming into the league and struggled mightily in year one, only to get significantly better in year two. Like you, I suspect that process will continue this year. By how much, I don't know. What I will say though is Josh Allen had a crappy year in year one, and he made a meaningful step forward in year two. Lawrence's 2022 was decisively better than Allen's second year. So I'd like to think Lawrence has a chance (not a guarantee obviously) of making the jump to Pro Bowl level production this year, potentially. He has all the tools to be great.

As to his rushing, fair enough, but he gets more with his feet than some QBs. 300-ish rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs isn't that bad at all if it's someone who throws for 4500-plus yards and 30-plus TDs. So I guess we'll see if he's capable of that.

Dave - I am completely coming around to your positive view of Trevor Lawrence.  For one, I dont think there is any risk of him regressing.  Second, he's a big bodied QB so I think he will hold up for 17 games.  Third, he is a sneaky runner.  He may not rush for 800 yards, but he will break for an endzone.

I think my negative view was colored by the fact that I viewed him as the 2nd coming of Andrew Luck.  Unfortunately Urban Meyer coached him and hurt his development however now with a top flight HC, he showed his talent in that first year under Coach Doug.

Grab him.

[DaveBrown74]

Dave - I am completely coming around to your positive view of Trevor Lawrence.  For one, I dont think there is any risk of him regressing.  Second, he's a big bodied QB so I think he will hold up for 17 games.  Third, he is a sneaky runner.  He may not rush for 800 yards, but he will break for an endzone.

I think my negative view was colored by the fact that I viewed him as the 2nd coming of Andrew Luck.  Unfortunately Urban Meyer coached him and hurt his development however now with a top flight HC, he showed his talent in that first year under Coach Doug.

Grab him.

Phil-

Love the endorsement. Good to hear.

See I'm picking 12th in a 12 team snake league, and I'm in a league where passing TDs are 6 points. Also, we have this stupid bonus system where you get a 5 point bonus if your QB gets 300 passing yards. QBs get taken early and often in my league, and it's important to have a good one.

I have two choices: I can go QB with the 12th or 13th pick overall and maybe get either Mahomes or Allen.

Or I can wait until the 3/4 turn, and just take the best available. If I do that, not only will Mahomes and Allen be gone, but I think Hurts, Burrow and Herbert will be too. Probably Lamar as well. So I'll most likely be looking at guys like Lawrence and Fields if I go in that direction. I don't really want Fields that badly because he just doesn't give you the passing yards or passing TDs that you need in my league, so my working assumption is I'll get Lawrence. I think there is an outside chance I get Herbert, but I doubt it.

I could just take a QB with one of my first two picks, but then I'm really sacrificing the chance to get an elite RB or WR. Since those positions drop off faster than QB, and since I need to start multiple ones of those each week versus just one QB, I'm inclined to wait until the 3/4.

If I were in a league with more traditional QB scoring, I'd wait later than that, but my league is very QB-centric. You can't mess around too much with that position.

[nb587]

I'm in a snake league, never did  fantasy before.  QBs get 4 points for TDs.  Should I put off taking a QB until later or look for a QB who can run earlier?  There are 12 people in this.  I pick 2nd

[DaveBrown74]

I'm in a snake league, never did  fantasy before.  QBs get 4 points for TDs.  Should I put off taking a QB until later or look for a QB who can run earlier?  There are 12 people in this.  I pick 2nd

IMHO I would put off QB until at least the 5th round, and you can most likely wait until the 7th or so.

As discussed earlier, my league is weird, but in a normal league like yours, QBs are abundant, and (all things equal) running QBs tend to be underdrafted.

You can't have a precise set formula for a fantasy draft, because you never know exactly how it's going to go, but generally speaking loading up on RBs and WRs in the earlier part of the draft is advisable, as those positions dwindle faster than QB usually.

Tight end is tricky. It's really nice to have a top tight end. This thread seems to be favoring Waller, and I don't think it's just homerism because his ADP is going up nationally.

Assuming Justin Jefferson goes first, you'll have to decide between Jamarr Chase and Christian McCaffrey. If it were I, I would take Chase, but there is certainly a strong argument to go with McCaffrey.

[Philosophers]

Phil-

Love the endorsement. Good to hear.

See I'm picking 12th in a 12 team snake league, and I'm in a league where passing TDs are 6 points. Also, we have this stupid bonus system where you get a 5 point bonus if your QB gets 300 passing yards. QBs get taken early and often in my league, and it's important to have a good one.

I have two choices: I can go QB with the 12th or 13th pick overall and maybe get either Mahomes or Allen.

Or I can wait until the 3/4 turn, and just take the best available. If I do that, not only will Mahomes and Allen be gone, but I think Hurts, Burrow and Herbert will be too. Probably Lamar as well. So I'll most likely be looking at guys like Lawrence and Fields if I go in that direction. I don't really want Fields that badly because he just doesn't give you the passing yards or passing TDs that you need in my league, so my working assumption is I'll get Lawrence. I think there is an outside chance I get Herbert, but I doubt it.

I could just take a QB with one of my first two picks, but then I'm really sacrificing the chance to get an elite RB or WR. Since those positions drop off faster than QB, and since I need to start multiple ones of those each week versus just one QB, I'm inclined to wait until the 3/4.

If I were in a league with more traditional QB scoring, I'd wait later than that, but my league is very QB-centric. You can't mess around too much with that position.

Dave - what are your thoughts for your fantasy league of Aaron Rodgers?  If the Jets OL holds up, I can see him throwing for 4,000 yards and 36+ TDs.

Also consider Tua.  Sacked only 21 times, great playmakers and now entering 3rd season.

[DaveBrown74]

Dave - what are your thoughts for your fantasy league of Aaron Rodgers?  If the Jets OL holds up, I can see him throwing for 4,000 yards and 36+ TDs.

Also consider Tua.  Sacked only 21 times, great playmakers and now entering 3rd season.

Neither is high on my target list but I don't disagree with any of your points.

The Jets' O line does worry me though, and Rodgers wasn't very good last year. I could see him blowing up this year, but there is risk with the pick IMO.

Tua should be a huge fantasy points per game guy but he just never stays on the field, and people question whether his career can continue if he gets concussed again.

Think both are good picks relative to the price, but I'd want a dependable solid backup like Goff or Cousins if I took one of those.

[nb587]

IMHO I would put off QB until at least the 5th round, and you can most likely wait until the 7th or so.

As discussed earlier, my league is weird, but in a normal league like yours, QBs are abundant, and (all things equal) running QBs tend to be underdrafted.

You can't have a precise set formula for a fantasy draft, because you never know exactly how it's going to go, but generally speaking loading up on RBs and WRs in the earlier part of the draft is advisable, as those positions dwindle faster than QB usually.

Tight end is tricky. It's really nice to have a top tight end. This thread seems to be favoring Waller, and I don't think it's just homerism because his ADP is going up nationally.

Assuming Justin Jefferson goes first, you'll have to decide between Jamarr Chase and Christian McCaffrey. If it were I, I would take Chase, but there is certainly a strong argument to go with McCaffrey.


[/quote

IMHO I would put off QB until at least the 5th round, and you can most likely wait until the 7th or so.

As discussed earlier, my league is weird, but in a normal league like yours, QBs are abundant, and (all things equal) running QBs tend to be underdrafted.

You can't have a precise set formula for a fantasy draft, because you never know exactly how it's going to go, but generally speaking loading up on RBs and WRs in the earlier part of the draft is advisable, as those positions dwindle faster than QB usually.

Tight end is tricky. It's really nice to have a top tight end. This thread seems to be favoring Waller, and I don't think it's just homerism because his ADP is going up nationally.

Assuming Justin Jefferson goes first, you'll have to decide between Jamarr Chase and Christian McCaffrey. If it were I, I would take Chase, but there is certainly a strong argument to go with McCaffrey.

Thanks DB.  I go back and forth between McCaffrey and Chase, changed my mind several times. 

Woukd kicker follow QB and then Defense?  Or, see whose available, i,e Ravens kicker?

[PSUBeirut]

Neither is high on my target list but I don't disagree with any of your points.

The Jets' O line does worry me though, and Rodgers wasn't very good last year. I could see him blowing up this year, but there is risk with the pick IMO.

Tua should be a huge fantasy points per game guy but he just never stays on the field, and people question whether his career can continue if he gets concussed again.

Think both are good picks relative to the price, but I'd want a dependable solid backup like Goff or Cousins if I took one of those.

I'm wary of Rodgers because of the OL and he hasn't been great in awhile...and I don't think every great QB holds up like Brady did.  I'm also really wary of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. I think they'll both wind up over-drafted, again because of the OL, and I'm going to let someone else roll the dice on those guys this year.

[PSUBeirut]

I'm in a snake league, never did  fantasy before.  QBs get 4 points for TDs.  Should I put off taking a QB until later or look for a QB who can run earlier?  There are 12 people in this.  I pick 2nd

Personally I'd wait for a Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff.  Also at that #2 pick pay close attention to who the guy at #1 is drafting- he will wind up with 2 picks that are sandwiched between yours- of ten times at that 2 spot (and the 11 spot) you can predict what position will be available for the 2nd of your two picks each time around.  ie, if the guy at #1 loads up on WRs early you can predict later that he'll grab RBs, so you'd want to pick a RB in the slot right before he gets two cracks at it...and save a WR for your 2nd pick in the batch.  Hope that makes sense, it can be tricky if you've not ever done it before.

[DaveBrown74]

Thanks DB.  I go back and forth between McCaffrey and Chase, changed my mind several times. 

Woukd kicker follow QB and then Defense?  Or, see whose available, i,e Ravens kicker?

I tend to draft kicker in the 15th or 16th (last) round in my league. I just get a guy ideally in a dome and/or on a good offense and don't think a great deal about it. If you don't like your kicker you can always get a new one.

With defenses, I like defenses that get a lot of pressure on the QB because they tend to get not only sacks but turnovers. With defenses, schedule is very important too. When in doubt take a D that is facing bad offenses to start out the season. If you don't like your D you can always cut them and pick up someone else. Since there are 32 defenses and only 10 or 12 teams in most leagues, they're not that hard to come by week to week (albeit some teams in your league may carry more than one D at a time). I made it to the finals in my league one year without having the same D for more than 3 games. I just streamed them based on the matchup. I think it's fine to take a D as early as the 11th or 12th round if you feel strongly about it, but I wouldn't pass on a high upside RB or WR or TE in favor of a D personally. I'd just wait until the next round myself. Others here may disagree, but that is just my two cents. I sometimes see people drafting defenses in as early as the 9th round or so and in my opinion that's a mistake. They'll pass on high upside guys like Smith-Njigba to get the 9ers D. A lot of times, by midway through the season, those teams will have a different D on their roster and then meanwhile Smith-Njigba is the next Amon-Ra St. Brown.

What I do recommend with Ds is picking one up the week before it has a plum matchup, if you can. Especially if something like two of its next three matchups are easy.

I guarantee you there will be undrafted defenses in your league that end up being well into the top 10 defenses. Happens every year.

[Philosophers]

Neither is high on my target list but I don't disagree with any of your points.

The Jets' O line does worry me though, and Rodgers wasn't very good last year. I could see him blowing up this year, but there is risk with the pick IMO.

Tua should be a huge fantasy points per game guy but he just never stays on the field, and people question whether his career can continue if he gets concussed again.

Think both are good picks relative to the price, but I'd want a dependable solid backup like Goff or Cousins if I took one of those.

All fair points.  I can't disagree.

Cousins or Goff would be very good.

As you and PSU, it's all about matchups that week. 

[DaveBrown74]

All fair points.  I can't disagree.

Cousins or Goff would be very good.

As you and PSU, it's all about matchups that week. 

Very much so.

BTW there is definitely a scenario where A-Rod crushes it this year. It's certainly not out of the realm. I just would want some insurance with him is all.

Same with Tua. I actually had Tua last year as my backup to Burrow. I started Tua one week over Burrow when Burrow was in a tough game and Chase was injured. In the right matchup he can light it up with the weapons he has. He just can't be trusted to stay on the field for an extended period of time. And as you know it was no different with him at Alabama.

[Philosophers]

Question to my fantasy football brothers.

This is my first time playing in two different leagues.  One was an auction draft.  Second is an upcoming snake draft.  If you have played in multiple drafts, do you try to still target your same players or do you try to draft a different team and players?  I am leaning toward different players and strategy.  Thoughts?

[DaveBrown74]

Question to my fantasy football brothers.

This is my first time playing in two different leagues.  One was an auction draft.  Second is an upcoming snake draft.  If you have played in multiple drafts, do you try to still target your same players or do you try to draft a different team and players?  I am leaning toward different players and strategy.  Thoughts?

Great question.

When I have done multiple leagues in the past (I don't know), I have tended to target the same 3-4 guys I really like. That didn't mean I'd necessarily get them on both teams, and no matter what in the end the two teams always looked different, but I am really keen on a small handful of players I'm trying to target them in any league I'm in. As mentioned before, with the way these drafts go, the two teams are going to look different in the end regardless. So if you happen to be say very high on Smith-Njigba and Dalton Kincaid, I see nothing wrong with attempting to get both of them in both leagues. Just my opinion obviously.

On a totally separate note just while I am in this thread: I have noticed recently (and noticed it last year too) that Jaylen Warren on the Steelers consistently puts up better rushing efficiency numbers than Najee Harris. Najee is still the clear RB1 there, but I could see them giving a significantly bigger allocation of touches to Warren this year than he had in 2022. In Najee's first two seasons he has never averaged even 4.0 YPC, and last year Warren averaged 4.9. And Warren has looked way better in the preseason this year. He's also a good pass catcher (albeit so is Najee). I'm now trying to get him as my RB4 or RB5 late in the draft. Pitt runs the ball plenty, and even if Najee never gets hurt, I could see Warren getting enough work this year that he could be an OK start if I ever get into trouble with injuries or byes.

[DaveBrown74]

Question for the thread:

How would you rank the following receivers for just 2023? Ideally from a PPR point of view.

AJ Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave