NGT - Let’s talk 2023 fantasy football

[PSUBeirut]

Was doing some research tonight and thought I'd share a few thoughts I've been having...

---I'm scared of any/all Ravens WRs until Lamar proves he can make them studs.  They keep bringing guys in that all seem to disappoint so I'm staying away from them until I see otherwise.
---I'm in an auction league with 2 keepers a year.  12 teams, 1/2 point PPR.  If anyone is in a similar situation and wants a copy of the spreadsheet I use to calculate inflation, true values, historical league data, etc., just let me know through DMs
---I'm digging Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin as mid-range value pickups at the moment.
---George Pickens continues to intrigue me
---I'm fighting the urge hard to be a homer in regards to D Waller.  I'm probably going to be sticking to value TEs later, which is what I almost always end up doing.  TE position is just volatile hot garbage most the time.  That being said, I think Juwan Johnson, Dawson Knox, Trey McBride may be late-round TE2s I look at.  I also might target Isiah Likely who is an absolute monster to stash on your bench in case Andrews gets hurt- then can either play him or trade him.
---A couple value RBs I'm really interested in- James Cook, Samaje Perine/J Williams (take both and one likely to hit), A Mattison. 

Anyway, this will all change a good deal as training camps get rolling.  Hope you're all doing well!

[DaveBrown74]

Was doing some research tonight and thought I'd share a few thoughts I've been having...

---I'm scared of any/all Ravens WRs until Lamar proves he can make them studs.  They keep bringing guys in that all seem to disappoint so I'm staying away from them until I see otherwise.
---I'm in an auction league with 2 keepers a year.  12 teams, 1/2 point PPR.  If anyone is in a similar situation and wants a copy of the spreadsheet I use to calculate inflation, true values, historical league data, etc., just let me know through DMs
---I'm digging Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin as mid-range value pickups at the moment.
---George Pickens continues to intrigue me
---I'm fighting the urge hard to be a homer in regards to D Waller.  I'm probably going to be sticking to value TEs later, which is what I almost always end up doing.  TE position is just volatile hot garbage most the time.  That being said, I think Juwan Johnson, Dawson Knox, Trey McBride may be late-round TE2s I look at.  I also might target Isiah Likely who is an absolute monster to stash on your bench in case Andrews gets hurt- then can either play him or trade him.
---A couple value RBs I'm really interested in- James Cook, Samaje Perine/J Williams (take both and one likely to hit), A Mattison. 

Anyway, this will all change a good deal as training camps get rolling.  Hope you're all doing well!

Great notes. We overlap on a few points:

- I am of a similar mind with the Baltimore receivers. I'm very likely leaving them alone, although I do like Flowers a lot as a player. If I draft any of the receivers there it's him. No interest in Bateman or OBJ.

- I have always loved McLaurin and will have no problem drafting him. I don't have much of a view on Howell either way, but I don't see how he can much worse than the QBs McLaurin has had in recent years, and maybe he'll be better.

-Waller seems fairly priced to me. I'm not chasing him, but I'm not putting my foot down about drafting him either if he falls a little and I have whiffed on TE before that. If I do end up with Waller, it's clearly urgent to have a TE2 I like. My personal favorite (and I want to get this guy anyway if I can) is Greg Dulcich. I loved him at UCLA and his pro-rated numbers last year were impressive for a rookie. I think he could end up being a mid-level fantasy TE1 this year.

-I'm a huge George Pickens guy. I'm targeting him and don't mind reaching for him a little.

-I am also very high on James Cook. Big YPC last year as a rookie and will clearly catch plenty of balls. They were comfortable enough moving on from Singletary, which is a good sign for Cook. With Nyheim Hines now also out for the year his value is only greater at the margin. They did get Damian Harris but he is an early downs JAG type at this point.

-I like Mattison too but I think plenty of people will be on him. I suspect him to be a late 3rd round/early 4th rounder in a 12 team league. He might be good value at that type of price though, so fair point.

[Philosophers]

Last year every move I made became gold which was ridiculously fortuitive.  When Lamar got hurt I started Justin Fields who went on a tear.  Picked up Pachecho just when he went on a tear.

I drafted Christian Watson and stored him then at end of season he lit it up as I played him.

I feel like the Ravens will be different.  Lamar will never be Brady but his legs sure help.  Same with Fields.

Funny you mentioned Waller.  I may be one of those homers who picks him only because he is the one certain guy I think DJ will lean on.  George Kittle was my TE last year and I may lean on him again.

I cant draft Ekeler again as he will be too damned expensive.  I had Miles Sanders and liked his productivity and think they may use him more in Carolina.

Tua may be one of my target QBs.  He is fragile but when he plays he is consistent and another year may afford a leap.

[DaveBrown74]

Last year every move I made became gold which was ridiculously fortuitive.  When Lamar got hurt I started Justin Fields who went on a tear.  Picked up Pachecho just when he went on a tear.

I drafted Christian Watson and stored him then at end of season he lit it up as I played him.

I feel like the Ravens will be different.  Lamar will never be Brady but his legs sure help.  Same with Fields.

Funny you mentioned Waller.  I may be one of those homers who picks him only because he is the one certain guy I think DJ will lean on.  George Kittle was my TE last year and I may lean on him again.

I cant draft Ekeler again as he will be too damned expensive.  I had Miles Sanders and liked his productivity and think they may use him more in Carolina.

Tua may be one of my target QBs.  He is fragile but when he plays he is consistent and another year may afford a leap.

People were very down on Tua last year and I managed to get him off waivers after some guy cut him. I had Burrow so I didn't desperately need him and tried to trade him but I couldn't get much for him. I ended up actually starting him a couple times and it worked.

Outside of Goff, who isn't going that late, I don't love any late QBs this year. If I were gambling in the final couple rounds, Ridder is someone I would consider just given the weapons he has. With Bijan, Pitts, and London, maybe he can put up some numbers against some of these crappy NFC South teams.

Is Jameson Williams worth drafting? What round would you take him in in PPR in a 12 team league? I know he's talented, but if that offense is humming without him I have a hard time seeing him come in off a suspension and taking tons of targets away from people right away. That process could take a few games.

[PSUBeirut]

Is Jameson Williams worth drafting? What round would you take him in in PPR in a 12 team league? I know he's talented, but if that offense is humming without him I have a hard time seeing him come in off a suspension and taking tons of targets away from people right away. That process could take a few games.

I like Jameson and in my league he'll be a guy that people overpay for because they'll all try to outsmart it.  But it could pay off because I do believe Jameson has the chance to be a difference maker late in the season/toward playoff time.  I've got Amon-Ra as a dynasty/keeper and this is the last year I get to keep him...so I'm already trying to figure out when I may be able to squeeze the most juice out of trading him once Jameson gets rolling. 

Interested to hear more about Dulcich- it's a name I had come across but hadn't dove too deeply into.  Will go check him out more, thanks for the tip!

[DaveBrown74]

I like Jameson and in my league he'll be a guy that people overpay for because they'll all try to outsmart it.  But it could pay off because I do believe Jameson has the chance to be a difference maker late in the season/toward playoff time.  I've got Amon-Ra as a dynasty/keeper and this is the last year I get to keep him...so I'm already trying to figure out when I may be able to squeeze the most juice out of trading him once Jameson gets rolling. 

Interested to hear more about Dulcich- it's a name I had come across but hadn't dove too deeply into.  Will go check him out more, thanks for the tip!

You bet!

Just to put a few bullets down on Dulcich:

(1) As I said, he popped off the screen for me talent-wise when he was at UCLA. Take that FWIW, which isn't much because I'm certainly wrong my share of times, but I have always had my eye on him. He is not a great blocker, but he is an excellent athlete who can make plays downfield and has great ball skills from what I have observed. And obviously the blocking issue isn't relevant to fantasy (unless it is so bad that it keeps him off the field, which I don't believe to to be the case).

(2) Year one in the NFL, he battled injuries, plus he was the TE2 after Albert Okwuegbunam. This year he is slated to be the TE1.

(3) So in year one, in 10 games as the secondary guy, he had 33 catches for 411 yards and two TDs. Pro-rates to 56-699-3.4 over a full 17 games. That's pretty darn good for a rookie TE2 on a team that had a terrible offense overall and a playcaller/head coach who had no clue what he was doing and was fired after one year.


I'm not crazily bullish on Russell Wilson, but I do think he'll do better than last year, plus I think Payton is a game-changing hire versus Hackett. I think it all translates well for Dulcich.

For where he's going I like his upside/value. If he does something like 60/800/6 this year I don't see how that would be a huge surprise given all of the above.

[DaveBrown74]

BTW, I actually did a fantasy mock draft the other day just for fun (12 team PPR), and Garrett Wilson was taken in the mid 2nd round. So it seems people have the same opinion we expressed earlier in this thread, and I don't expect him to come with any sort of discount.

Especially in my league, which has a couple of Jets fans in it, both of whom think Wilson is as good as a young OBJ.

[DaveBrown74]

True Blue, thought you might find this interesting:


https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1686117962346876928

[Philosophers]

True Blue, thought you might find this interesting:


https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1686117962346876928

I had Calvin Ridley his rookie year.  I like him.  Still waiting for him to be a healthy WR1.

[DaveBrown74]

I had Calvin Ridley his rookie year.  I like him.  Still waiting for him to be a healthy WR1.

I feel like he's a guy whose draft value will fluctuate a lot between now and the time most fantasy leagues hold their drafts. Everyone knows what this guy is capable of if he is mentally and physically right. Right now people don't trust him. However, if he looks good in preseason play and there is more good buzz around him in camp, he will fly up the boards this month.

[DaveBrown74]

Elijah Moore was on my list of mid to later round receivers to target, and apparently he is really having an excellent camp. I am bullish on the Browns in general this year, and I think this guy has a real chance to have a breakout year. I feel like he is priced to be a WR4 or WR5 right now and I think he could really overdeliver at that price point. Definitely a guy I'm willing to reach for a little bit if his ADP stays around where it is.

[Philosophers]

I was checking out some preseason camp news and it looks like Jaxon Smith Njigba is looking outstanding for the Seahawks and is playing almost 100% slot WR.  He's a target of mine as I think he can flourish there with DK Metcalf on the outside.  Keep an eye on him.  He will not be highly priced.

[DaveBrown74]

I was checking out some preseason camp news and it looks like Jaxon Smith Njigba is looking outstanding for the Seahawks and is playing almost 100% slot WR.  He's a target of mine as I think he can flourish there with DK Metcalf on the outside.  Keep an eye on him.  He will not be highly priced.

He's on my list as well. He was frankly on my list for the Giants at 21st overall. I think he's a legit talent. I could see him eating into Lockett's targets.

Seattle's offense has plenty of weapons both on the ground and in the air.

[Philosophers]

He's on my list as well. He was frankly on my list for the Giants at 21st overall. I think he's a legit talent. I could see him eating into Lockett's targets.

Seattle's offense has plenty of weapons both on the ground and in the air.

Agree however I think his success in the NFL will be as a slot WR.  He played outside a bit at OSU but I think he will not be successful outside in the NFL.

[DaveBrown74]

In my league we have a draft to decide the draft order. 12 team PPR league. I am picking 7th to decide the order. Most likely I will end up with the 7th pick. There's always the chance someone in front of me chooses a later slot and I end up with sixth or even fifth possibly, but I kind of doubt that happens. I think I'll be 7th, and I'm ok with that.

Unless I have a really strong reason, I think all things equal it's better to be earlier. Over the course of the entire draft you're simply picking in an average earlier spot if you are earlier than if you pick later. I know many people like to pick late, but I find people are only thinking about the first two rounds when they indicate that preference. I feel that is a flawed or at least incomplete way of looking at it myself.

I wanted to ask everyone here: do you have any non-pay websites (I pay for more than enough content these days) that you like for fantasy? I kind of know the big name ones already - anyone you find to be particularly sharp that's maybe a little off the beaten path? If you have a pay one that you really think is worth it feel free to list it, but I'm not really looking to pay for fantasy football content at the moment.