I know there have been a lot of Daniel Jones threads recently, but I don't recall one that has actually attempted to speculate on the threshold of what he needs to do to avoid being cut after this season, which we know his contract is designed to allow them to do if they so choose.
What exactly do you think he needs to do in 2024 (at minimum) to avoid being gone after this season?
1. Stay injury free
2. Stop walking into sacks (ala Seattle game per PFF podcast).
3. Boom it downfield where applicable - trust the line and the guy to get open
4. Stop seeing ghosts
5. Restructure that contract - those future cap hits are brutal.
I don't have a number of yards or amount ot TDs but be in the top 10-13 of those categories.
That's off the top of my head and if he hits those, I'll be delighted. It means we've done okay.
He needs to show he can produce in the 2 minute drill both before halftime and especially at the end of the games. He has been sporadic at best in that area.
Lastly, he must win a playoff game this year and he has to beat Dallas and Philadelphia at least once each.
WIN
What I am expecting from him with the additions of Nabers, Theo, and the upgrades on the O line.
3,500-4,000 Yards
22-30 TD's
10-12 Int
65%
400-500 Yards rushing
95.0-98.0 RTG
I think he has to hit production and numbers like this for the Giants to keep him for the remainder of his three-year contract.
With the additions that he has, combined with him taking more chances, I believe this is within reason.
Quote from: sxdxca38 on May 05, 2024, 01:41:22 PMWhat I am expecting from him with the additions of Nabers, Theo, and the upgrades on the O line.
3,500-4,000 Yards
22-30 TD's
10-12 Int
65%
400-500 Yards rushing
95.0-98.0 RTG
I think he has to hit production and numbers like this for the Giants to keep him for the remainder of his three-year contract.
With the additions that he has, combined with him taking more chances, I believe this is within reason.
If he can do that he will be in the Pro Bowl and we will be deep in the playoffs. One can only hope
I don't think there's anything he can do. With his health concerns even if he throws for 4,000 and 30tds which is extremely unlikely he can't be trusted to stay healthy. Plus I believe Schoen and Daboll want their own guy, which also likely buys them more time, and this will be the perfect time for them to let him go.
My best guess- Jones needs to do what he did in 2022, lead the team to a record that makes it difficult to impossible to draft his replacement
My personal view:
1. I think Jones would need to have another injury-free year like he did in 2022. Missing one game with a mild ankle sprain wouldn't be the end of the world, but he can't have another season where he misses multiple games with a significant injury, as he has in four out of his five seasons in this league.
2. The team will need to have at least a decent season. Of course, this isn't all on Jones, but given QB is the most important position, I think he'll have a hard time being brought back if they have another season with fewer than 8 or 9 wins. He'd have to have an insanely productive season and they'd need to lose a lot of 38-35, shootout type games for this to not be the case.
3. He will need to be a legitimately productive passer. Absolute bare bones minimum of 3800 passing yards and 25 passing TDs. No excuses. He's getting paid too much to be a dink and dunk, 3200 yard/15 TD guy, and they know it.
4. Ball security: Max of 11/12 INTs if his passing TDs are in the 25-29 range, and a max of 14/15 if he's above 30 passing TDs. Fumbles need to be low/mid single digits again.
5. Risk appetite: Jones will need to take more risky shots downfield and not always opt for the closest receiver. Tyrod Taylor did it last year on the same team, and with Nabers and better O linemen Jones needs to do it this year.
6. Pocket/rush awareness: Jones will have to show marked improvement in this area.
Personally, I think all of the above will need to happen for the Giants to want to keep him beyond this season. Right now I believe he is on the outside looking in. He will have to have a significantly better season than he has ever had to be brought back. The economics just don't work otherwise.
I don't think a statistical repeat of his 2022 season will be enough in year six. They gave him the contract after that year with the hope that he would build on that performance and make further strides, not that he'd settle into that productivity level for the long haul.
I think the importance of his passing TD increase is heightened this year. Coming off an ACL we have to expect a noticeable drop off in rushing production. Also a second neck injury might dilute any goal line keepers.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 05, 2024, 02:39:41 PMMy personal view:
1. I think Jones would need to have another injury-free year like he did in 2022. Missing one game with a mild ankle sprain wouldn't be the end of the world, but he can't have another season where he misses multiple games with a significant injury, as he has in four out of his five seasons in this league.
2. The team will need to have at least a decent season. Of course, this isn't all on Jones, but given QB is the most important position, I think he'll have a hard time being brought back if they have another season with fewer than 8 or 9 wins. He'd have to have an insanely productive season and they'd need to lose a lot of 38-35, shootout type games for this to not be the case.
3. He will need to be a legitimately productive passer. Absolute bare bones minimum of 3800 passing yards and 25 passing TDs. No excuses. He's getting paid too much to be a dink and dunk, 3200 yard/15 TD guy, and they know it.
4. Ball security: Max of 11/12 INTs if his passing TDs are in the 25-29 range, and a max of 14/15 if he's above 30 passing TDs. Fumbles need to be low/mid single digits again.
5. Risk appetite: Jones will need to take more risky shots downfield and not always opt for the closest receiver. Tyrod Taylor did it last year on the same team, and with Nabers and better O linemen Jones needs to do it this year.
6. Pocket/rush awareness: Jones will have to show marked improvement in this area.
Personally, I think all of the above will need to happen for the Giants to want to keep him beyond this season. Right now I believe he is on the outside looking in. He will have to have a significantly better season than he has ever had to be brought back. The economics just don't work otherwise.
I don't think a statistical repeat of his 2022 season will be enough in year six. They gave him the contract after that year with the hope that he would build on that performance and make further strides, not that he'd settle into that productivity level for the long haul.
Dave,
By the way I like what you have presented, however may I play devil's advocate for a minute?
Let's say DJ puts up a statistical season like 2022, but the Giants go all the way to the NFC Conference Finals, but they lose.
They would be drafting either pick 29th or 30th.
If that is the case, in order to draft a new QB they would need one of the top teams to trade out.
Then the Giants would have to give up the farm to get that guy, if they are able to.
Or in this situation do you think it is wiser to hold onto DJ for another year?
Curious your thoughts?
Quote from: sxdxca38 on May 05, 2024, 04:19:02 PMDave,
By the way I like what you have presented, however may I play devil's advocate for a minute?
Let's say DJ puts up a statistical season like 2022, but the Giants go all the way to the NFC Conference Finals, but they lose.
They would be drafting either pick 29th or 30th.
If that is the case, in order to draft a new QB they would need one of the top teams to trade out.
Then the Giants would have to give up the farm to get that guy, if they are able to.
Or in this situation do you think it is wiser to hold onto DJ for another year?
Curious your thoughts?
In the other thread about Eli, if memory serves, you were sort of complaining that people were 'cheery picking' about Eli and ONE year with a bad OL. Well, aren't you guilty of the same thing when you continually bring up the ONE year Jones had a decent enough year, 2022? For the most part, in most of the other years, Jones had been bad, in fact, worse than bad, awful would be a better term.
I'm not picking on you, but this has been a constant with people who think Jones is good and all he needs is a good OL, great WRs, and a good running game to be successful. As Dave said, he really needs to change his approach to the game. He simply doesn't even look downfield anymore, he puts the ball way and runs way too often, especially for an injury-prone QB. He still stares down too many receivers and just opts to dump it off just way too often.
PLUS, who says our OL will be that much better this year? All we can do is hope.
Quote from: sxdxca38 on May 05, 2024, 04:19:02 PMDave,
By the way I like what you have presented, however may I play devil's advocate for a minute?
Let's say DJ puts up a statistical season like 2022, but the Giants go all the way to the NFC Conference Finals, but they lose.
They would be drafting either pick 29th or 30th.
If that is the case, in order to draft a new QB they would need one of the top teams to trade out.
Then the Giants would have to give up the farm to get that guy, if they are able to.
Or in this situation do you think it is wiser to hold onto DJ for another year?
Curious your thoughts?
SXD,
If they were to make the playoffs and actually win two playoff games (a hypothetical that I view as highly unlikely), it's very possible they might go with a wait and see approach at the QB position, yes. I agree that if they were drafting that low they'd be in a terrible position to get anyone in the draft that they'd be comfortable starting in 2025.
I cannot say whether I think it would be wiser or not to wait with only the above info provided. There are too many moving parts and unknown variables involved for me to be able to answer that today. Among other considerations, the draft is not the only way to get a new QB.
Win the NFC Championship game
Produce.
I was going to say "win games" but I think there's a scenario where he produces but the team doesn't win, and he still comes out looking favorably.
The winning thing isn't just a Daniel Jones problem. That problem existed before DJ arrived. The most you can say is he couldn't elevate them out of the dysfunction. Few QBs (if any) would've. You've got to be careful reading too much into that, given the overall state.
However - careers are short and struggle is real. As Perry Fewell told Justin Tuck once (after his shoulder injury) "you don't get these years back". First time in his career he's got a legit WR1. Good slot WR. He's set up to have success in the passing game. I myself have defended him many times pointing out the impossible nature of having a bad OL w/bad skill players.
If he fails to produce, there's no more wondering what if. He's got enough now.*
*Provided Nabers isn't a bust, of course.
Quote from: LennG on May 05, 2024, 04:29:45 PMIn the other thread about Eli, if memory serves, you were sort of complaining that people were 'cheery picking' about Eli and ONE year with a bad OL. Well, aren't you guilty of the same thing when you continually bring up the ONE year Jones had a decent enough year, 2022? For the most part, in most of the other years, Jones had been bad, in fact, worse than bad, awful would be a better term.
I'm not picking on you, but this has been a constant with people who think Jones is good and all he needs is a good OL, great WRs, and a good running game to be successful. As Dave said, he really needs to change his approach to the game. He simply doesn't even look downfield anymore, he puts the ball way and runs way too often, especially for an injury-prone QB. He still stares down too many receivers and just opts to dump it off just way too often.
PLUS, who says our OL will be that much better this year? All we can do is hope.
Hi Lenn,
Thank you so much for your expressions and how you feel and thank you for saying that you are not picking on me, as I do appreciate that.
I have kind of said what I needed to say in the other thread, but I will leave you with these comments that may help to see where I am coming from.
You may feel that Daniel Jones only had one good year in 2022, but I believe he also played well in 2019, which was his rookie year. As he threw for 24 TDs to 12 Int's.
So, I would say he has had two good years, and not just one.
I would also say that in 2020, 2021, and 2023 were not good years for him, but he has only played in five seasons.
Eli Manning on the other hand played from 2004-2018, that is eighteen years of football, so a big difference.
Do I think Daniel Jones is an elite QB? No, I do not.
But can he bounce back from last year? Absolutely.
However, considering the situation of where the Giants were picking from, I do believe that they made the right call in drafting an elite WR, to pair up with DJ, instead of taking the 4th or 5th best QB left on the board.
That is where I stand.
However, in the end, what everyone thinks is just an opinion. The proof will be in the pudding and the eating thereof.
If Daniel Jones is too make it, this year he needs to produce, and so does the team.
However, if he doesn't produce, he is out, but, if he does produce then he will continue to be the starting QB of the New York Giants.
but only time will tell.
Please be well and take care.
Oh wow! These criteria, all the different laundry lists, it's a wonder he hasn't already cleaned out his locker and said "who needs this?"
I like Trench's criteria the best. It doesn't get any easier than beat the Cowboys and Eagles. If he and the Giants could do that twice a year, and throw the team formerly known as the Redskins x two, for good measure, he can stay as long as he wants.
Oh, maybe one more thing.
Instead of 0-41, how about give us a 41-0 and we'll let all be forgiven.
Easy enough, right?
Peace!
2022 stats aren't good enough (they're really not great, but that's beside the point). The Giants paid him after that season with the hope that he would be better going forward and evolve. That didn't happen. Instead, we saw a complete regression. I've stated in other threads that I think the only situation that makes them rethink Jones is an MVP-caliber season. And that doesn't guarantee they retain him, I think they just have a harder conversation about it.
To those who say another playoff win (or some variation short of Superbowl victory) would change the Giants mind on Jones: the 49ers went to a Superbowl (2019) and conference championship (2021) with Jimmy Garropollo. They still decided to move on from him (and paid an insane premium to miss on Trey Lance to do so). There's plenty of tape on Jones. Even if some miracle happens and the Giants go on a deep playoff run, it guarantees nothing in my mind.
Due to his contract amount, play as a top 10 QB.
look the part. its still a pretty bad roster and my expectations for the team are fairly low. but as far as jones goes, dont look shell shocked. make some tight window/anticipation throws. don't get hurt. convert third downs. air it out a little bit. just look the part of a starting qb/franchise qb. stats arent always the greatest indicator, but i fully expect at least 3500/20 tds. minimum. no more 12 td seasons, its pathetic.
Quote from: Trench on May 05, 2024, 12:21:30 PMHe needs to show he can produce in the 2 minute drill both before halftime and especially at the end of the games. He has been sporadic at best in that area.
Lastly, he must win a playoff game this year and he has to beat Dallas and Philadelphia at least once each.
i think playoffs are unlikely, but yes winning in the division.. thats a big one. we arent going anywhere until we can go toe to toe with those 2 teams that have absolutely owned us over the last decade.
Sorry to be the pessimist / glass half empty guy...but I don't think there can be a scenario, hypothetical or not, to envision DJ on the team in 2025. His biggest weakness is his lack of processing the defense and going through his reads. This is a god given ability and you either have it or you don't. I'm sorry, but he doesn't have it, which is why all of his other above average attributes have not matterd. :(
Quote from: 4 Aces on May 05, 2024, 07:49:09 PMProduce.
I was going to say "win games" but I think there's a scenario where he produces but the team doesn't win, and he still comes out looking favorably.
The winning thing isn't just a Daniel Jones problem. That problem existed before DJ arrived. The most you can say is he couldn't elevate them out of the dysfunction. Few QBs (if any) would've. You've got to be careful reading too much into that, given the overall state.
However - careers are short and struggle is real. As Perry Fewell told Justin Tuck once (after his shoulder injury) "you don't get these years back". First time in his career he's got a legit WR1. Good slot WR. He's set up to have success in the passing game. I myself have defended him many times pointing out the impossible nature of having a bad OL w/bad skill players.
If he fails to produce, there's no more wondering what if. He's got enough now.*
*Provided Nabers isn't a bust, of course.
I think the victories are needed. I don't think the wins factor significantly into the evaluation so much as a QB on a rookie contract is quite attractive. If the Giants are in a position to draft a QB next draft, I think it would be hard for them not to pull the trigger because they would get that QB on a cheap rookie deal, which is a big help in terms of team building.
https://x.com/EDNJACK53/status/1787334586441085283
It's a really good question and there's a very high likelihood his fate has already been decided. Didn't we already play this game going into 2022? Is there any 1-year resume that washes out bad taste of 2023 from our mouths?
Schoen has shown some real prudence by not reaching for a new quarterback (or any position really). He didn't give up a big ransom to move up to 3. He didn't panic and take JJ McCarthy. He understands the implications contracts have on the cap and generally has the economics under control. Next off-season, there are no rules for him. Frankly it's sad that we'll have to wait until Year 3 of a GMs reign to see what he'll actually do when there are no handcuffs on him.
Quote from: zephirus on May 06, 2024, 10:00:39 AMIt's a really good question and there's a very high likelihood his fate has already been decided. Didn't we already play this game going into 2022? Is there any 1-year resume that washes out bad taste of 2023 from our mouths?
Schoen has shown some real prudence by not reaching for a new quarterback (or any position really). He didn't give up a big ransom to move up to 3. He didn't panic and take JJ McCarthy. He understands the implications contracts have on the cap and generally has the economics under control. Next off-season, there are no rules for him. Frankly it's sad that we'll have to wait until Year 3 of a GMs reign to see what he'll actually do when there are no handcuffs on him.
Schoen doesn't have a QB on a cheap rookie deal. Schoen's appreciation of positional value does mean the team has an OT, Edge, CB, and WR all on cheap rookie deals. Those are all the highly paid positions behind QB
That is not up to any of us to decide, but it certainly puts a lot of pressure on Schoen/Daboll et al.
Doubtless, he will have to lead the Giants to a winning/playoff season and so prove to all but his haters that he is worth his next 2 year's cost.
Otherwise, I'd rather not think of him and team having a mediocre season such that they may have to trade up in the next Draft so as to be able to gamble on a successor. But, of course, it's always more a matter of luck than anything else.
Cheers!
He will need to perform at a level that is commensurate with the better talent that is assembled around him.
Provided that the OL under Bracillo takes the expected and hopeful jump to league average or better in the advanced metrics like time to pressure and quality of pressure, and Nabers ends up being closer to OBJ and J'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson rookie year than Rueben Randle, then DJ's production should not just slightly improve but drastically.
I hate placing numbers on this kind of thing because there are so many things that can happen in a season, but I'll play along.
His rookie year he threw for 24TDs and 12 INTs in 12 games. I would fully expect something around that 2:1 per game ratio to justify continuing with him. So something in the area of 34TDs and 17INTs and 4000+ yards over a full season.
4000 yards by the way would put him right around the top 10 of last years QB rankings.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-passing-yard-leaders-2023-to-2024
For more context 34 TDs would have been top 2 last year.
Top 10 puts him around 25TDs
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-passing-td-leaders-2023-to-2024
So asking for 34 as a barometer to keep him may be a bit extreme lol
25 TDs relative to last years top 10 is probably a fairer number.
Quote from: Uncle Mickey on May 06, 2024, 10:51:03 AMHe will need to perform at a level that is commensurate with the better talent that is assembled around him.
Provided that the OL under Bracillo takes the expected and hopeful jump to league average or better in the advanced metrics like time to pressure and quality of pressure, and Nabers ends up being closer to OBJ and J'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson rookie year than Rueben Randle, then DJ's production should not just slightly improve but drastically.
I hate placing numbers on this kind of thing because there are so many things that can happen in a season, but I'll play along.
His rookie year he threw for 24TDs and 12 INTs in 12 games. I would fully expect something around that 2:1 per game ratio to justify continuing with him. So something in the area of 34TDs and 17INTs and 4000+ yards over a full season.
4000 yards by the way would put him right around the top 10 of last years QB rankings.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-passing-yard-leaders-2023-to-2024
For more context 34 TDs would have been top 2 last year.
Top 10 puts him around 25TDs
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-passing-td-leaders-2023-to-2024
So asking for 34 as a barometer to keep him may be a bit extreme lol
25 TDs relative to last years top 10 is probably a fairer number.
It just ain't that complicated. Good gosh!!!
Cheers!
It's true he regressed last year.
But any fair, deep-dive analysis?
If you were honest with yourself and someone told you Andrew Thomas, Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller were going to get seriously hurt immediately, and that Parris Campbell was going to bust, what would your expectations be?
As painful as last year was (literally, for DJ) - you can't evaluate anything. It was a fiasco. That's why he's still here, as the starter, with the Giants not desperate to draft just any QB.
Maybe Al Davis had it right all along ...
"Just win, Baby!"
Peace!
Win 60% of the games he starts and have decent QB stats.
Quote from: GloryDays on May 06, 2024, 04:24:16 PMWin 60% of the games he starts and have decent QB stats.
"Decent" is good enough to be paying someone $40mm a year?
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 06, 2024, 05:38:02 PM"Decent" is good enough to be paying someone $40mm a year?
The question was what it would take for Jones to be kept as the giants QB in 2025. My answer is based on the circumstances. If we win 9 games or more, we would be picking in the 2nd half of the first round; so chances would be that considering Jones' improvement, his cap hit if cut, and lack of better options will result in keeping him.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 05, 2024, 02:39:41 PM4. Ball security: Max of 11/12 INTs if his passing TDs are in the 25-29 range, and a max of 14/15 if he's above 30 passing TDs. Fumbles need to be low/mid single digits again.
5. Risk appetite: Jones will need to take more risky shots downfield and not always opt for the closest receiver. Tyrod Taylor did it last year on the same team, and with Nabers and better O linemen Jones needs to do it this year.
6. Pocket/rush awareness: Jones will have to show marked improvement in this area.
Outside of staying healthy, a combination of these things are what I'd need to see. He needs to show that he can effectively read a defense and is willing and able to take chances down the field without putting the ball in harms way. Basically, show that you can be a difference maker and not just somebody who can look good against bad competition.
It wouldn't hurt if he was wiilling to take a pay cut, since there will be no guaranteed money.
Does anyone believe if Jones plays like a top 10 QB but the team has a losing season, the Giants will not pursue QB in next year's draft (assuming there is a good one and they are in a realistic position to acquire him).
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 07, 2024, 12:40:54 PMDoes anyone believe if Jones plays like a top 10 QB but the team has a losing season, the Giants will not pursue QB in next year's draft (assuming there is a good one and they are in a realistic position to acquire him).
Yes.
Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on May 07, 2024, 12:42:34 PMYes.
Since I ended up making the question a bit complicated, you are saying "yes" the Giants will ride with Jones in the situation I described?
A lot rides on the season for Jones. Fans tend to think a QB should "take the game over" and become a gun slinging QB, and "make it all happen". The trouble is, the OC makes the calls, not the QB. Jones will do whatever his coach tells him to do as they design the plays based on the defenses he's facing. The last time I remember a QB calling his own plays (before the hike as well as on the fly) was Roger Staubach, who worked so closely with Tom Landry that their minds were like one. Landry let him go and run the team from the field while giving lightly controlled plans...and it worked. It worked because Staubach was athletic, but more importantly, had a very high football IQ that was inate to him
Jones will never be treated the way Staubach was treated, and he'll march to the step his coaches lay out for him. If he doesn't work out, or gets injured, we'll get to find out what we have in Drew Lock, and I suspect Schoen will be wheeling and dealing to get to the top of the draft for Carson Beck next season. We'll just have to watch the games this season and see what works out. My suspicions are that DJ is on a short rope. I'm rooting for him to excell far beyond the legion of negativity from an impatient fanbase. We shall see
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 07, 2024, 12:44:03 PMSince I ended up making the question a bit complicated, you are saying "yes" the Giants will ride with Jones in the situation I described?
If he's putting top ten numbers. Yes. I can see that.
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on May 07, 2024, 12:58:16 PMA lot rides on the season for Jones. Fans tend to think a QB should "take the game over" and become a gun slinging QB, and "make it all happen". The trouble is, the OC makes the calls, not the QB. Jones will do whatever his coach tells him to do as they design the plays based on the defenses he's facing. The last time I remember a QB calling his own plays (before the hike as well as on the fly) was Roger Staubach, who worked so closely with Tom Landry that their minds were like one. Landry let him go and run the team from the field while giving lightly controlled plans...and it worked. It worked because Staubach was athletic, but more importantly, had a very high football IQ that was inate to him
Jones will never be treated the way Staubach was treated, and he'll march to the step his coaches lay out for him. If he doesn't work out, or gets injured, we'll get to find out what we have in Drew Lock, and I suspect Schoen will be wheeling and dealing to get to the top of the draft for Carson Beck next season. We'll just have to watch the games this season and see what works out. My suspicions are that DJ is on a short rope. I'm rooting for him to excell far beyond the legion of negativity from an impatient fanbase. We shall see
Jolly,
The other important part of the play-calling equation is what the QB is comfortable and capable of doing. The OC has to take that into account when calling plays and designing a game plan for the opponent.
If Daniel doesn't instill confidence that he can be that guy from Week 1 to Week 18, there will be a lot of plays left and a lot of skill position talent wasted.
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 07, 2024, 12:40:54 PMDoes anyone believe if Jones plays like a top 10 QB but the team has a losing season, the Giants will not pursue QB in next year's draft (assuming there is a good one and they are in a realistic position to acquire him).
If he plays like a top ten QB I think the 50+% failure rate for drafted QBs would make it foolish to move on from him. Discard a top ten QB in search of what, a top three or five QB with the odds stacked against them? Crazy. And if they still had a losing season they could continue building out the team and shore up the weak spots that led to the losing season.
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 05, 2024, 02:30:37 PMMy best guess- Jones needs to do what he did in 2022, lead the team to a record that makes it difficult to impossible to draft his replacement
This is the most likely scenario that supports Jones remaining in place. He needs to do just enough to keep drafting a blue chip replacement out of reach leaving the Giants' only other option being replacing him with a long in the tooth has been/never was retread. I suppose the Giants could capture lightning in a bottle with a high risk draft pick in the mid to late first round.
Quote from: TONKA56 on May 08, 2024, 07:49:56 AMThis is the most likely scenario that supports Jones remaining in place. He needs to do just enough to keep drafting a blue chip replacement out of reach leaving the Giants' only other option being replacing him with a long in the tooth has been/never was retread. I suppose the Giants could capture lightning in a bottle with a high risk draft pick in the mid to late first round.
The Giants had that high-risk option with the 3 QBs they passed on in this draft.
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 08, 2024, 07:52:52 AMThe Giants had that high-risk option with the 3 QBs they passed on in this draft.
Sure, but they weren't ready for reasons that made sense to them.
Quote from: MightyGiants on May 07, 2024, 12:40:54 PMDoes anyone believe if Jones plays like a top 10 QB but the team has a losing season, the Giants will not pursue QB in next year's draft (assuming there is a good one and they are in a realistic position to acquire him).
I believe if DJ is top 10 but Giants are sub 0.500 he'll return in 2025.
Quote from: Philosophers on May 08, 2024, 10:33:06 AMI believe if DJ is top 10 but Giants are sub 0.500 he'll return in 2025.
I feel exactly the opposite because if they're picking higher via a bad record, a top QB is more likely to be within reach. Though, I'm viewing this top-10 season as being the result of efficiency (akin to 2022) rather than volume--I think the latter would make the decision to replace him harder, though not insurmountable depending on circumstances (that likely can't be anticipated at this time).
I will say that if I were the GM, I suspect I would grab a new quarterback if available (without having to pay a premium in a trade). I think
@AZGiantFan made a compelling point about the odds of success when drafting a QB. That would give me pause. Ultimately, it would come down to the injury issues (a healthy season doesn't erase all those concerns, and that cheaper contract. Those are two very compelling reasons in my mind.
Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on May 08, 2024, 10:41:42 AMI feel exactly the opposite because if they're picking higher via a bad record, a top QB is more likely to be within reach. Though, I'm viewing this top-10 season as being the result of efficiency (akin to 2022) rather than volume--I think the latter would make the decision to replace him harder, though not insurmountable depending on circumstances (that likely can't be anticipated at this time).
Replace a top 10 performance at toughest and most important NFL position with a rookie likely to do poorly? Why not just draft one and sit him for a year?
Quote from: Philosophers on May 08, 2024, 04:07:54 PMReplace a top 10 performance at toughest and most important NFL position with a rookie likely to do poorly? Why not just draft one and sit him for a year?
There are also 5 starting qbs slated to hit free agency if they aren't tagged.
Dak
Trevor Lawrence
Jordan Love
Jared Goff
Tua
Plus you have other backups and fringe starters.
I think it's all about Jones health. If he stays healthy and can string together consistently good games then he'll likely be back if not I think they move forward without him.
Quote from: Philosophers on May 08, 2024, 04:07:54 PMReplace a top 10 performance at toughest and most important NFL position with a rookie likely to do poorly? Why not just draft one and sit him for a year?
Some around here have argued he was top-10 in 2022, largely based on his QBR that season (he was 6th and largely so due to running contribution). But to me, 2022 would not be good enough in 2024 because it would be a "top-10" season by efficiency. Again, my point was that it hinges somewhat on the "top-10" season we're talking about. If 2024 is like 2022, that "top-10" performance doesn't do the trick.
Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on May 08, 2024, 04:49:45 PMSome around here have argued he was top-10 in 2022, largely based on his QBR that season (he was 6th and largely so due to running contribution). But to me, 2022 would not be good enough in 2024 because it would be a "top-10" season by efficiency. Again, my point was that it hinges somewhat on the "top-10" season we're talking about. If 2024 is like 2022, that "top-10" performance doesn't do the trick.
Hi,
May I ask a hypothetical question.
Let's say he puts up similar numbers to his 2022 season, and the Giants make the NFC conference finals but lose that game.
Do they bring DJ back the following year?
Curious your thoughts?
I think that ship sailed.
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Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on May 08, 2024, 04:49:45 PMSome around here have argued he was top-10 in 2022, largely based on his QBR that season (he was 6th and largely so due to running contribution). But to me, 2022 would not be good enough in 2024 because it would be a "top-10" season by efficiency. Again, my point was that it hinges somewhat on the "top-10" season we're talking about. If 2024 is like 2022, that "top-10" performance doesn't do the trick.
I agree with you. Must be more than 2022 for sure.
I think for the money he is paid, 4200+ yards, 35 TD's, 10 picks, only 2 lost fumbles and 5 rushing TD's would be my expectation. (somewhere around Jared Goff/Brock Purdy neighborhood give or take) Winning and losing is a team effort, so that aside, if I see these numbers, he's earned his bag in my view.
Quote from: expatriot on May 09, 2024, 11:45:54 AMI think for the money he is paid, 4200+ yards, 35 TD's, 10 picks, only 2 lost fumbles and 5 rushing TD's would be my expectation. (somewhere around Jared Goff/Brock Purdy neighborhood give or take) Winning and losing is a team effort, so that aside, if I see these numbers, he's earned his bag in my view.
So, better than Mahomes 2023 season*? Pretty high bar.
* 4183/27/14/3/0
Quote from: AZGiantFan on May 09, 2024, 12:29:43 PMSo, better than Mahomes 2023 season*? Pretty high bar.
* 4183/27/14/3/0
Yes for a number 6 pick getting 40 mil per and Mahomes had a down year stats wise.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on May 09, 2024, 12:29:43 PMSo, better than Mahomes 2023 season*? Pretty high bar.
* 4183/27/14/3/0
If DJ is the 2024 SB MVP, those top 10 numbers will be 'forgiven.'