Big Blue Huddle

The Giants traded a 2nd and 5th round pick for Burns, and also gave him a five year 140-million-dollar contract.

In return Burns is projected to record four sacks this year.

Kayvon Thibodeaux was a top five draft pick and projected to be a star.

Last year he recorded 11.5 sacks, however this year he is projected to record six sacks.

Dexter Lawrence is virtually double teamed on every play, leaving both of these DEs with one-on-one opportunities.

With that being the case, both of these players should be recording around 12-14 sacks each, but that is not happening.

In my opinion they are both severely underperforming, and it's hurting the team.

Curious your thoughts? 

What did they see in them to make them draft one and sign the other
That is the problem right there

Sterling Shepard score td for Tampa.   FYI


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Quote from: sxdxca38 on October 03, 2024, 08:49:11 PMThe Giants traded a 2nd and 5th round pick for Burns, and also gave him a five year 140-million-dollar contract.

In return Burns is projected to record four sacks this year.

Kayvon Thibodeaux was a top five draft pick and projected to be a star.

Last year he recorded 11.5 sacks, however this year he is projected to record six sacks.

Dexter Lawrence is virtually double teamed on every play, leaving both of these DEs with one-on-one opportunities.

With that being the case, both of these players should be recording around 12-14 sacks each, but that is not happening.

In my opinion they are both severely underperforming, and it's hurting the team.

Curious your thoughts?

Totally agree


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https://x.com/Anthony_Rivardo/status/1841500611663003655?t=mS5X5DtMvw_BG3JSwIFxdQ&s=19

Saw this posted in another thread. Worth a read.

Quote from: Hadron on October 03, 2024, 09:46:13 PMhttps://x.com/Anthony_Rivardo/status/1841500611663003655?t=mS5X5DtMvw_BG3JSwIFxdQ&s=19

Saw this posted in another thread. Worth a read.

Burns is 6th in pass rush win rate. The issue is a lack of true pass sets reps because the rushing defense is relatively weak. Regardless, the defense is not the problem with this team. It's solidly middle of the pack. Offense being among the worst in the league is why the Giants are 1-3.

As a whole, the defense is better than average. At 21 PA, they're currently #13 in NFL, which is incredibly impressive when you consider they've played the #3, 4 and 10 best scoring offenses.  If the Giants offense ranked higher than 30th in Points Scored, we're probably not having these discussions.  Fundamentally, I continue to believe this team is closer to competent than some fans realize.

Quote from: Hadron on October 03, 2024, 09:46:13 PMhttps://x.com/Anthony_Rivardo/status/1841500611663003655?t=mS5X5DtMvw_BG3JSwIFxdQ&s=19

Saw this posted in another thread. Worth a read.

Good information, and that is a possibility, but the reality is the man is on pace for 4 sacks this year, that simply isn't going to cut it.

Aiden Hutchinson had 5.5 sacks in just two games.

Burns has got to show me more than what he is producing

I could accept the sack numbers a lot easier in the context of a big improvement in run defense, but that isn't happening.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on October 03, 2024, 10:33:09 PMGood information, and that is a possibility, but the reality is the man is on pace for 4 sacks this year, that simply isn't going to cut it.

In discussions around Daniel Jones, do you extrapolate out his 4 TDs this season (to 16) and say it isn't going to cut it and start threads about how he's severely underperforming? No. From what I can tell, you're trying to look beyond counting stats and see DJ's contribution... but why do you not extend that same courtesy to Brian Burns? Why do you only focus on his sack contribution when you're not that reductive of other players? Why are you not preaching letting the season to play out for him?

The defense is not the issue with this team--it is the only phase of the game keeping the Giants competitive. And to be clear, I'm more than fine with criticism of Burns and Thibodeaux. But what I can't understand is criticism of them that is inconsistent with that levied upon other players on this team, especially when the defense is performing well in a brand new scheme after an abysmal season under Wink.

Suffice it to say I think the Giants need to find a way to shore up the run defense and it will make the pass rush production numbers look better. But let's also not ignore the effect of the horrific offense: being ahead in games would cause the opposing offense to have to throw to play catch-up, but the Giants have held few leads this season. The only game they had a two-score lead (Cleveland), they put up 9 sacks. I don't think that's a coincidence.

ANOTHER in a long time of examples showing how woeful (near worthless) this organization is at judging football talent.

Period.

And the beat goes on.

Thibs has been invisible in my mind and Burns a bit better but like someone pointed out, Dex is double teamed which means one of these guys should be getting sacks

Quote from: Trench on October 04, 2024, 08:17:12 AMThibs has been invisible in my mind and Burns a bit better but like someone pointed out, Dex is double teamed which means one of these guys should be getting sacks

Exactly

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on October 03, 2024, 11:59:54 PMIn discussions around Daniel Jones, do you extrapolate out his 4 TDs this season (to 16) and say it isn't going to cut it and start threads about how he's severely underperforming? No. From what I can tell, you're trying to look beyond counting stats and see DJ's contribution... but why do you not extend that same courtesy to Brian Burns? Why do you only focus on his sack contribution when you're not that reductive of other players? Why are you not preaching letting the season to play out for him?

The defense is not the issue with this team--it is the only phase of the game keeping the Giants competitive. And to be clear, I'm more than fine with criticism of Burns and Thibodeaux. But what I can't understand is criticism of them that is inconsistent with that levied upon other players on this team, especially when the defense is performing well in a brand new scheme after an abysmal season under Wink.

Suffice it to say I think the Giants need to find a way to shore up the run defense and it will make the pass rush production numbers look better. But let's also not ignore the effect of the horrific offense: being ahead in games would cause the opposing offense to have to throw to play catch-up, but the Giants have held few leads this season. The only game they had a two-score lead (Cleveland), they put up 9 sacks. I don't think that's a coincidence.

The distinction lies in that Daniel Jones production over the past three games has significantly increased, compared to Burns and Thibodeaux which has not.

If DJ's numbers were abysmal these past 3 games, then I would agree with you, but since they are not, I respectfully disagree.

Here are DJ's numbers for the last 3 games

67% - 96.6 RTG - 4 TD - 1 Int

Those numbers put him "around" top ten of NFL QB's.

May I ask, why don't you extrapolate those numbers over a 17-game season, and not just the TD's, and then please tell me what you get?

Furthermore, he posted an 80 PFF score the last game, with only four dropped passes and that still wasn't enough for them to win.

So, there are other areas of this team that are deficient, which is contributing to the losses.

Final point, last year the Giants rush defense ranked 29th, giving up over 130.2 ypg on the ground, and yet Thibodeaux still recorded 11.5 sacks.

So, while using a poor rush defense as an excuse for why they are underperforming, does not excuse their lack of pressure, because Burns and Thibodeaux are also responsible for stopping the run.

I'm now off to work, take care

Quote from: sxdxca38 on October 04, 2024, 09:07:24 AMThe distinction lies in that Daniel Jones production over the past three games has significantly increased, compared to Burns and Thibodeaux which has not.

If DJ's numbers were abysmal these past 3 games, then I would agree with you, but since they are not, I respectfully disagree.

Here are DJ's numbers for the last 3 games

67% - 96.6 RTG - 4 TD - 1 Int

Those numbers put him "around" top ten of NFL QB's.

May I ask, why don't you extrapolate those numbers over a 17-game season, and not just the TD's, and then please tell me what you get?

What you request is somewhat non-sensical: QB rating and completion percentage are effectively rate-based statistics (at least the former incorporates rate-based statistics, like completion percentage)--its improper to extrapolate them out. Extrapolating out his TDs (like you did with Burns' sacks) gets you a horrific 16 TDs and a very strong 4 INTs. This level of production, of course, has been a big component of the Giants being one of the worst offenses in the league.

And why aren't you giving Thibodeaux the benefit of parsing this "increasing production" paradigm? He had .5 sacks in Cleveland and 1 versus Dallas. Is that not increasing production?

QuoteFurthermore, he posted an 80 PFF score the last game, with only four dropped passes and that still wasn't enough for them to win.

You have missed my point entirely if you are referencing PFF to bolster Jones while ignoring advanced statistics telling you that Burns is winning one-on-one matchups at a top-10 clip. That's my entire gripe with the lens through which you're analyzing Burns.

QuoteSo, there are other areas of this team that are deficient, which is contributing to the losses.

Sure, if the defense held opposing offenses to 14 points a game, the Giants would likely win a few more. But which do we think is more realistic: asking a bottom-tier offense to pick up its production, or demanding a middle-tier defense to ascend to the tippy-top of the NFL? Because that's the change that is needed to prop up at 15 PPG offense. And I think that's an unreasonable ask.

QuoteFinal point, last year the Giants rush defense ranked 29th, giving up over 130.2 ypg on the ground, and yet Thibodeaux still recorded 11.5 sacks.

Giants as a team in 2023 recorded 34 sacks (29th in the NFL). Overall, the team could not muster up any sort of consistent pass rush. You're losing the forest for the trees. Have you considered whether Burns is winning matchups and demanding attention and that is freeing up others to make plays? If Burns had 15 sacks and the defense was awful, are you going to defend him? Because that's similar to Kay'von's 2023 campaign and I've heard very little in the way of praising him (and rightfully so, but making the point that empty calories stats aren't that important).

QuoteSo, while using a poor rush defense as an excuse for why they are underperforming, does not excuse their lack of pressure, because Burns and Thibodeaux are also responsible for stopping the run.

The Giants are 3rd in sacks this season. How much more performance are you envisioning? Making it so that 15 PPG is passable?

To my eye, offenses have been attacking the middle of the Giants defense with the run, not the edges. Its the DT spot next to Dex that is weak to begin with and as soon as Dex rotates out for a spell, the Giants get gashed up the middle.

QuoteI'm now off to work, take care

I appreciate your response. I really do. And like I said, criticize Thibodeaux and Burns for lack of production. But I think that criticism needs to be consistent (and of course, you're not bound by what I think, but I am also similarly free to call it out). But I'm concerned with the Giants winning and the primary thing holding this team back is a complete inability to score points. The defense has been a positive this season--I don't view its shortcomings as holding the team back, but as upside. Framing it otherwise seems backwards to me when its clear what phase of the game is letting the team down.