Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 11, 2024, 12:10:40 PMTim, I am listening to Bobby Skinner on his podcast.  While Bobby says DJ is the main culprit, he expressed serious frustration with the way Daboll is calling plays and how he abandoned successful concepts

This has been my feelings regarding play calling. Doesn't change the fact Jones cannot process or execute however.

Quote from: kingm56 on November 11, 2024, 12:13:00 PMI'm not sure what stats you're using, but I assure you that I'm correct. Let's analyze the data for consistency in terms of both averages and variance across all seasons:

Passing Analysis:

Jones' passing yards range from a low of 2,506 in 2023 (an injury-affected season) to a high of 3,958 in 2019. Ignoring 2023 as an outlier, the other years have passing yards in the 3,400-3,900 range, showing relatively stable output.

1. Average Passing Yards (excluding 2023):
(3,958 + 3,576 + 3,749 + 3,405 + 3,519) / 5 = 3,641.4

Standard Deviation (excluding 2023): Approx. 242 yards

With a small standard deviation (242 yards), his passing yards remain within a consistent range over most seasons, indicating no major year-to-year fluctuations.

2. Passing Touchdowns:

Jones' passing touchdowns vary from 6 (2023) to 32 (2019). However, excluding the two outliers (2019 and 2023), his TDs range between 13 and 16 over other seasons.

Average Passing TDs (excluding 2019 and 2023):
(13 + 15 + 16 + 14) / 4=14.5

Standard Deviation (excluding 2019 and 2023): Approx. 1.3 TDs

The low variability here suggests that, aside from his rookie year, Jones' passing touchdown output is steady around 14-15 per season.

3. Interceptions:

Jones' interceptions range from a low of 5 in 2022 to a high of 17 in 2023, though most years fall between 11 and 16.
Average INTs (excluding 2023):
(16 + 12 + 11 + 5 + 12) / 5=11.2

Standard Deviation (excluding 2023): Approx. 4.1 INTs

With a moderate standard deviation, his interceptions have some fluctuation but mostly stay around the 11-12 mark, reflecting stability in limiting turnovers.


Rushing Analysis:

1. Rushing Yards:

Jones' rushing yards show an increase in 2022 (752), but his other seasons range from 365 to 558.
Average Rushing Yards (excluding 2022):

(365 + 514 + 460 + 558 + 450) / 5= 469.4

Standard Deviation (excluding 2022): Approx. 73 yards

This low variability (excluding 2022) indicates that Jones consistently contributes around 470 rushing yards per season, making 2022 an exceptional, rather than typical, year.

2. Rushing Touchdowns:

Jones' rushing touchdowns range from a low of 1 in 2020 to a high of 7 in 2022, with most seasons at 3.
Average Rushing TDs (excluding 2022):

(3 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 3) / 5=2.6

Standard Deviation (excluding 2022): Approx. 0.9 TDs
With a standard deviation under 1, his rushing TDs also show consistency, typically in the range of 2-3 per season, aside from the standout 2022 year.


Conclusion:
Excluding outliers like 2022 (a peak rushing year) and 2023 (a low passing year), Jones' passing and rushing stats fall within a narrow range year to year. The low variability in passing yards, touchdowns, and interceptions (barring certain outlier seasons) clearly indicated that he has maintained a consistent level of performance.

Typical of most starting QBs with 5+ seasons, there have been isolated high and low years, Daniel Jones' typical output has shown little change, as reflected in averages and standard deviations that indicate steadiness rather than significant year-to-year improvement or decline.

In my opinion, raw stats are not meaningful.  Scheme, run game, defense can all impact such stats, independent of QB performance.

I prefer stats that demonstrates efficiency like QB rating, QBR, EPA per attempt, etc.  It's even worth throwing in PFF grade.

Still I just did a study that reaches far beyond DJ. That found that Daboll historically has QBs perform below their career averages, which is exactly what we see from DJ

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 11, 2024, 12:10:40 PMTim, I am listening to Bobby Skinner on his podcast.   While Bobby says DJ is the main culprit, he expressed serious frustration with the way Daboll is calling plays and how he abandoned successful concepts

I will also say that what Bobby said ("DJ is the main culprit and there are frustrations with Daboll's calls") are the EXACT things the majority of us have been saying but instead of acknowledging it, we get push back and deflection from you and Todge and SxD.

Your refusal to acknowledge DJ is the main culprit but citing Bobby saying the same thing says a lot.

Quote from: Trench on November 11, 2024, 12:14:06 PMThis has been my feelings regarding play calling. Doesn't change the fact Jones cannot process or execute however.

The offensive struggles can be attributed to both Daboll and DJ.  If we buy into the narrative that Daboll just needs his own QB, we will see more losing.  That said, regardless of management, this team is in a less than enviable position lacking talent, quality coaching, and no clear path to a franchise QB

Quote from: T200 on November 11, 2024, 12:21:07 PMI will also say that what Bobby said ("DJ is the main culprit and there are frustrations with Daboll's calls") are the EXACT things the majority of us have been saying but instead of acknowledging it, we just push back and deflection from you and Todge and SxD.

Your refusal to acknowledge DJ is the main culprit but citing Bobby saying the same thing says a lot.

It's the reverse.   I have acknowledged DJ isn't the answer, you and others are so focused on blaming DJ that you don't recognize the serious coaching problems.   Daboll was brought here as an offensive guru.  Yet here and elsewhere that isn't the case.   So what does Daboll bring to the table?

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 11, 2024, 12:20:10 PMIn my opinion, raw stats are not meaningful.  Scheme, run game, defense can all impact such stats, independent of QB performance.

I prefer stats that demonstrates efficiency like QB rating, QBR, EPA per attempt, etc.  It's even worth throwing in PFF grade.

Still I just did a study that reaches far beyond DJ. That found that Daboll historically has QBs perform below their career averages, which is exactly what we see from DJ

Eighteen months ago, while most—including you—were crediting Brian Daboll for Daniel Jones' development, I was among a few who argued it was merely an illusion. My view was grounded in statistical deviation analysis, as I outlined above.

Daboll remains the same coach who was previously fired after leading offenses ranked 31st, 20th, 32nd, and 30th in scoring. Like every offensive coordinator or head coach in the NFL, his success is heavily dependent on his starting quarterback. However, the quarterback's success is not as tightly bound to the influence of any specific coach or coordinator. In the past, I have gone as far as plotting the trajectory of every current OC and HC to prove this point.   

The Giants and DJ's trajectory has been easy to forecast. 

In contrast, can you explain why your views regarding Daboll have oscillated over the last 18 months?

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 11, 2024, 12:28:34 PMIt's the reverse.   I have acknowledged DJ isn't the answer, you and others are so focused on blaming DJ that you don't recognize the serious coaching problems.   Daboll was brought here as an offensive guru.  Yet here and elsewhere that isn't the case.   So what does Daboll bring to the table?

That's not what I said. You haven't acknowledged DJ is the main culprit. You've said DJ isn't the answer because he's a victim of circumstances (poor protection, no WR support, poor coaching, and injuries). There's a difference. Your responses strongly suggest that everyone else is the problem except DJ.

Plenty of us have called out Daboll. As much as I support him, my biggest knock on him is pulling double duty as the HC/OC. I've called him out on the unnecessary 2-point conversions, play calls, and time management. To say otherwise is not being honest in our conversations.

Quote from: T200 on November 11, 2024, 12:13:43 PMI think all of us here have expressed frustration with some of Daboll's decisions.

But my question to you is what do you see are the differences between the offense from 2022 and this year?

@MightyGiants

I think this got lost in the shuffle.  I'm genuinely curious on your thoughts about the differences.

hate to sound like a coach and say "have to look at the tape"...but you cant help but feel like 25 other qb's EASILY make that throw.

Quote from: T200 on November 11, 2024, 12:37:43 PMThat's not what I said. You haven't acknowledged DJ is the main culprit. You've said DJ isn't the answer because he's a victim of circumstances (poor protection, no WR support, poor coaching, and injuries). There's a difference. Your responses strongly suggest that everyone else is the problem except DJ.

Plenty of us have called out Daboll. As much as I support him, my biggest knock on him is pulling double duty as the HC/OC. I've called him out on the unnecessary 2-point conversions, play calls, and time management. To say otherwise is not being honest in our conversations.

Quote from: B1GBLUE on November 11, 2024, 01:16:20 PMhate to sound like a coach and say "have to look at the tape"...but you cant help but feel like 25 other qb's EASILY make that throw.

Honestly probably 30-40...

Quote from: T200 on November 11, 2024, 12:46:46 PM@MightyGiants

I think this got lost in the shuffle.  I'm genuinely curious on your thoughts about the differences.

I think there are two major differences between the far more successful 2022 offense and this totally dysfunctional offense

1)  coaching and scheme

2) DJ is broken

By broken, I mean he has the yips, he sees ghosts, it's PTSD, he's lost confidence, whatever you want to call it.  DJ isn't the same QB he was by the end of 2022.

Quote from: MightyGiants on November 11, 2024, 01:31:18 PMI think there are two major differences between the far more successful 2022 offense and this totally dysfunctional offense

1)  coaching and scheme

2) DJ is broken

By broken, I mean he has the yips, he sees ghosts, it's PTSD, he's lost confidence, whatever you want to call it.  DJ isn't the same QB he was by the end of 2022.

Can you elaborate on #1?

For #2, he only played 6 games before he got hurt, coming off his best season and a playoff win. His protection has been much better this year than even his 2022 version. What do you attribute his being broken to?

Quote from: kingm56 on November 11, 2024, 12:30:58 PMEighteen months ago, while most—including you—were crediting Brian Daboll for Daniel Jones' development, I was among a few who argued it was merely an illusion. My view was grounded in statistical deviation analysis, as I outlined above.

Daboll remains the same coach who was previously fired after leading offenses ranked 31st, 20th, 32nd, and 30th in scoring. Like every offensive coordinator or head coach in the NFL, his success is heavily dependent on his starting quarterback. However, the quarterback's success is not as tightly bound to the influence of any specific coach or coordinator. In the past, I have gone as far as plotting the trajectory of every current OC and HC to prove this point. 

The Giants and DJ's trajectory has been easy to forecast. 

In contrast, can you explain why your views regarding Daboll have oscillated over the last 18 months?

This is exactly what I put in the time to do statistical studies so I can learn what's really going on.  Because of that study I am able to recognize that these claims are not right.  First off no coach stays the same.  Coaches change every year.  They change because of league changes, because they want to improve, because their players and staff change, because they need to change things up to adapt to what opponents do and what opponents they will be facing.  Most coaches have huge binders of players.  They pair that binder down to a couple of hundred plays based on the offense they design in the offseason.

As to Daboll, my study is quite enlightening.  More often than not, a QB will underperform under Daboll. That goes for the Josh Allens/Brett Farves or the lesser QBs he worked with.  Still, there are times when things all go right for Daboll in a season and he will have a very good season from time to time.

QuoteHowever, the quarterback's success is not as tightly bound to the influence of any specific coach or coordinator

Neither I nor knowledgeable NFL people agree with that assertion. It's become conventional wisdom that a QB's performance is significantly impacted by the three pillars of support-  coaching/scheme, protection, and receivers.

Quote from: T200 on November 11, 2024, 12:21:07 PMI will also say that what Bobby said ("DJ is the main culprit and there are frustrations with Daboll's calls") are the EXACT things the majority of us have been saying but instead of acknowledging it, we just push back and deflection from you and Todge and SxD.

Your refusal to acknowledge DJ is the main culprit but citing Bobby saying the same thing says a lot.

Hi Tim,

Maybe you haven't seen any of my latest comments, especially yesterday, but after the game I've been saying that the Giants have the 2nd pick in the draft, and if there is a QB that they love, then I am on board with taking him and moving on from DJ.